350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[brian_allen_19]

Couldn't agree more. Hope 12% returns.

Second Motive Theory
Maybe the Premium "Side" people bought him out and staged a fight to distract all of us from the truth.

 

[350zCommTech]

Sorry about that. My spouse and I are both feds in TSP. We both read the MB but he hates typing so I do it for both of us. I'm Anidoc, he's Carnac. He's competitive so likes to try to crunch the numbers to see if he can get closer to the day's price than everyone else. I like to see everyone's strategies and all the other data and make the decisions. Generally it works for both of us.

So, you're the Technician's wife? If that's the case, then I hope you don't post his opinions under your user name. Besides, I think it's against the rules.

 

[HAILSTORM]

So, you're the Technician's wife? If that's the case, then I hope you don't post his opinions under your user name. Besides, I think it's against the rules.

The Technician? Uh oh...

 

[350zCommTech]

Let's get back to business.

The Yen is rising again. If this continues, we'll probably see some profit taking tomorrow. Which would set us up perfectly for Wednesday's Fed cut. The markets will tank, obviously, if they don't cut.

Tomorrow, I will pay close attention to gold, oil, and the dollar for signs that they might hold the FFR.

So far tonight, Asia is down slightly. The Nikkei 225 is down 75 points.

As for the best fund to play for Wednesday, IMHO, it's the I fund.

Here's why:

On Wednesday morning, the I fund will probably finish up as the USM awaits the cut. Once the Fed cuts, the USM will shoot up causing a +FV, and the dollar will fall further adding to the +FV. I fund wins.

On the other hand, if the Feds hold, the I fund's gain from the morning will act as a cushion so the hit in the I fund will not be as big as the C or S.

I will probably play this for just one day, so I will be out at COB Wednesday.

What do you guys/gals think?

 

[SCHAGAN]

Your rationale makes sense to me. I originally thought of going to I COB Wednesday to give the OSM a chance to react to the rate cut. However, your way of thinking protects you better if the news isn't as "rosy" as everyone is anticipating. I will watch closely tomorrow as well.

 

[350zCommTech]

Your rationale makes sense to me. I originally thought of going to I COB Wednesday to give the OSM a chance to react to the rate cut. However, your way of thinking protects you better if the news isn't as "rosy" as everyone is anticipating. I will watch closely tomorrow as well.

If the news is rosy, the +FV will be huge. That's not to say the OSM can't over come it, which they did in September, I just hate to put myself in that big of a hole.

 

[nnuut]

Let's get back to business.

The Yen is rising again. If this continues, we'll probably see some profit taking tomorrow. Which would set us up perfectly for Wednesday's Fed cut. The markets will tank, obviously, if they don't cut.

Tomorrow, I will pay close attention to gold, oil, and the dollar for signs that they might hold the FFR.

So far tonight, Asia is down slightly. The Nikkei 225 is down 75 points.

As for the best fund to play for Wednesday, IMHO, it's the I fund.

Here's why:

On Wednesday morning, the I fund will probably finish up as the USM awaits the cut. Once the Fed cuts, the USM will shoot up causing a +FV, and the dollar will fall further adding to the +FV. I fund wins.

On the other hand, if the Feds hold, the I fund's gain from the morning will act as a cushion so the hit in the I fund will not be as big as the C or S.

I will probably play this for just one day, so I will be out at COB Wednesday.

What do you guys/gals think?

You've been reading my mind!! Makes sense to me!
NOrman

 

[Robo5555]

Makes perfect sence. What about playing the S fund for fed rate cut day and jumping that day to the I find?? Opinions??

 

[James48843]

Makes perfect sence. What about playing the S fund for fed rate cut day and jumping that day to the I find?? Opinions??

You could- but it's risky- because if the fed doesn't cut, and the markets tank, and overnight the markets tank more, you put yourself diving in to the downward spirial right at the beginning of the fall, and won't be able to get out until Friday.

Interesting dilema.

In to win? Or out to safety?

I'll be in to win.

I still have a dozen years till retirement, anyway.

 

[Robo5555]

You could- but it's risky- because if the fed doesn't cut, and the markets tank, and overnight the markets tank more, you put yourself diving in to the downward spirial right at the beginning of the fall, and won't be able to get out until Friday.

Interesting dilema.

In to win? Or out to safety?

I'll be in to win.

I still have a dozen years till retirement, anyway.

I've got 14 years to go. Sure we won't remember this move after a couple of years.

 

[RPM]

Let's get back to business.


As for the best fund to play for Wednesday, IMHO, it's the I fund.

Here's why:

On Wednesday morning, the I fund will probably finish up as the USM awaits the cut. Once the Fed cuts, the USM will shoot up causing a +FV, and the dollar will fall further adding to the +FV. I fund wins.

On the other hand, if the Feds hold, the I fund's gain from the morning will act as a cushion so the hit in the I fund will not be as big as the C or S.

I will probably play this for just one day, so I will be out at COB Wednesday.

What do you guys/gals think?

Brilliant analysis. I always thought going into the market with the USM, and leaving the market with the OSM. But this play is making the best of the UfV!!! The little people win!

 

[oreo]

According to Bloomberg:

``It seems that the Fed has no alternative'' but to cut rates this week, said Cyril Beuzit, head of interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``When you are so close to such an event, most of the time there is a lot of consolidation. There probably won't be a big move before the meeting.''

and
Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade imply a 92 percent chance policy makers will reduce borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent at an Oct. 31 meeting and 8 percent odds of a cut to 4.25 percent.

I'm no expert by any means but those odds seem pretty good to me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azTAEzpzZUKk

 

[NyteTracker]

Tomorrow, I will pay close attention to gold, oil, and the dollar for signs that they might hold the FFR.

None of them justify a rate cut, so we will probably get it.
I agree the I is the best move, but was planning a two day move for a rally carry over or -FV payback.

Heard an interesting stat on the radio:
The corporate income tax in the U.S. is 40% while the average corporate tax in the EU is only 24%.

 

[350zCommTech]

None of them justify a rate cut, so we will probably get it.

What I meant was that the commodities and/or the currency markets will sometimes telegraph the Feds move. Somebody somewhere will always leak something...

 

[350zCommTech]

This is interesting. Looks like the BOJ will have an announcement on the 31st also (Tuesday night/Wednesday morning), prior to the Fed. Which gives me another reason to be in the I fund for Wednesday.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50 percent at a policy meeting on Wednesday, when it will also release its twice-yearly outlook report on the economy and prices.

The Federal Reserve, which slashed its federal funds rate to 4.75 percent in September, is seen likely to lower rates by another 25 basis points at a two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKT14322620071030?rpc=44&pageNumber=2

But then there's this:

The Wall Street Journal said on Tuesday without citing sources that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week is no sure thing and officials are not seriously considering a half-point reduction in overnight rates.

The article by Greg Ip, the Journal's Fed watcher who is known for sometimes reflecting the views of senior central bankers, said policymakers view this week's decision as a choice between a quarter-point cut to 4.5 percent and not moving at all.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKT14322620071030?rpc=44&pageNumber=2

 

[NyteTracker]

Somebody somewhere will always leak something...

We know where to look first..

 

[James48843]

Foreign markets al down this moring- Japan, CAC, DAX, FSTE all down around a half percent.

Red day.

 

[chandler51]

With a .25 cut already factored into the market, which scenario do y’all see as more likely to occur tomorrow: a .5 cut or no cut?

 

[Robo5555]

With a .25 cut already factored into the market, which scenario do y’all see as more likely to occur tomorrow: a .5 cut or no cut?

I see another .5 cut coming. It's almost expected. I thought into going to the S fund for a day but 350's analogy is right. The I fund is the best bet for cob today.

 

[Minnow]

What would 12% do? .... hmmmm ...... my guess is he'd let it ride!!!!!!