350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

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350zCommTech said:
Good question. I'm thinking C or S for Tuesday because of the FOMC minutes. If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll want to be in the I fund for Monday. I think the markets will open Monday?
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ok, thank you...
markets are open on Monday and SCHAGAN beat me to it..thanks

ps...all the little graphy thingys at the bottom are pointing down now:mad:
 
SCHAGAN said:
Remaining 2007 Market Holidays and Early Closures

27 November (Thanksgiving)
28 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)
Click to expand...

2008 Market Holidays and Early Closures

New Year's Day 1 Jan
MLK, Jr Day 21 Jan
President's Day 18 Feb
Good Friday 21 Mar
Memorial Day 26 May
Independence Day 4 Jul
Labor Day 1 Sep
Thanksgiving 27 Nov
Early Closure (1 EST) 28 Nov
Christmas 25 Dec
 
SCHAGAN said:
Remaining 2007 Market Holidays and Early Closures

27 November (Thanksgiving)
28 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)
Click to expand...

I apologize, I gave you 2008 market closures. 2007 is as follows:

22 November (Thanksgiving)
23 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

Sorry for the confusion. :(
 
A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.
 
12%ayear said:
A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.
Click to expand...

If the Fed continues to cut interest rate, real estate market will sustain (it is cheaper to borrow therefore reducing the cost of owning real estates), which in turn means sub prime problems will be minor problems (if people can sell their home with decent prices, their sub-prime problems will go away). I also believe the falling dollar will have the real estate market as well. for one, real estate will hold its intrinsic value. Also, foreign money will flow in for cheaper US real estate. So I think we will have some of problems, but not all of them at the same time, at least not in the short term period.

just some brainstorming by a newbie..
 
12%ayear said:
A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.
Click to expand...

I'm not certain that part of their intent was to keep the US dollar down, since their exporters are already screaming about the high Euro. But you are absolutely correct about their inflation concerns. Their actions today was basically them giving the finger to Bernake and Paulson. I applaud them for their actions. The job of any CB is to fight inflation, not to bail out wall street. Ben Bernake said so himself, but as we now know, he lied.

I also agree with you about the Hang Sang, we need to watch them tonight. They're obviously a bubble, just like the Shanghai index. The Hang Sang had a big reversal the other night and it fell 500 points last night.
 
newbie2 said:
If the Fed continues to cut interest rate, real estate market will sustain (it is cheaper to borrow therefore reducing the cost of owning real estates), which in turn means sub prime problems will be minor problems (if people can sell their home with decent prices, their sub-prime problems will go away). I also believe the falling dollar will have the real estate market as well. for one, real estate will hold its intrinsic value. Also, foreign money will flow in for cheaper US real estate. So I think we will have some of problems, but not all of them at the same time, at least not in the short term period.

just some brainstorming by a newbie..
Click to expand...

I disagree. The Fed does not control long term interest rates. Their .50% cut actually caused inflation concerns, which drove up long term bond yields. Those are what sets your mortgage rates. Besides, for the housing market to turn around, inventory and price needs to drop substantially, more so than interest rates.
 
350zCommTech said:
I disagree. The Fed does not control long term interest rates. Their .50% cut actually caused inflation concerns, which drove up long term bond yields. Those are what sets your mortgage rates. Besides, for the housing market to turn around, inventory and price needs to drop substantially, more so than interest rates.
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Point taken. However, I believe inflation effect itself will cause the house price to go up (if money is worth less than before, price of goods will go up. history shows that land always appreciate more than inflation. So the total effect will mean real estate price will go up). Cheaper fed rate will make short term loans and line of credit cheaper, which in turn helps real estate market and purchasing power of average consumers.
 
Another thing to look at will be earnings. Starting Mid-October, we will see a flood of numbers. I cannot see how they can possible be can be postive. The guidance will have to be lower at best. The only ones that have some bufferzone are the multi-nationals with the currency built in. Not trying to be negative..but please find some good news in this...subprime woes,China's tulipmania market, higher oil prices..$100 a barrel?,lenders tighting up the vaults,Iran( possible strike, you never know with Pres. Bush), Bear Sterns,Credit Suisee laying off,sluggish car sales,even state lotteries are down. People are broke...Over burden with credit card debts. Home Equity Loans are maxed. Anyway, look for one more push over 14000s before we correct. Looking for 14100s tomorrow, then I will bailout.
 
newbie2 said:
Point taken. However, I believe inflation effect itself will cause the house price to go up (if money is worth less than before, price of goods will go up. history shows that land always appreciate more than inflation. So the total effect will mean real estate price will go up). Cheaper fed rate will make short term loans and line of credit cheaper, which in turn helps real estate market and purchasing power of average consumers.
Click to expand...
I disagree with that with real estate. Supply/demand. More supply/less demand currently causes inventory problems. That causes buyers to be in control and offer less on the property like in the early 1990s. The Fed can only cut to a point. Inflation means they have to go up..lol
 
SCHAGAN said:
I apologize, I gave you 2008 market closures. 2007 is as follows:

22 November (Thanksgiving)
23 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

Sorry for the confusion. :(
Click to expand...

I got a question for anybody. Can we do an IFT on Monday morning? The market is open, but is the TSP office able to do transactions for that day or are they closed? :confused:
 
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