350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

[Robo5555]

The slower economic USM will have a direct inpact on the I fund. We call the dance tune.

 

[pezfallout]

Been in the G since before the turn of the year and was luckily able to bypass the losses, but with the way the I has dropped and the way it is shaping up today, it looks like tomorrow may be the right setup for the short-term bounce. I wouldn't imagine it holding for more than a day or two, though. Thoughts?

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate:

Up 1 cent, including a 27 cent -FVC.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 4 cents, including a 27 cent -FVC.

F fund is currently down a penny.

 

[350zCommTech]

Watch the dollar. I think C or S are better plays and Barclay is out there waiting to screw us.

View attachment 3014

 

[350zCommTech]

Nice short covering in the last 10 minutes combined with the bullish breakout in the USD/YEN suggests that a temporary bottom might have been found. Japan should rebound tonight, but the dollar will continue to rise.

MSCI EAFE = -.95% or -24 cents, plus 27 -FVC, = 4 cents for tonight.

No +FV.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[Robo5555]

Been in the G since before the turn of the year and was luckily able to bypass the losses, but with the way the I has dropped and the way it is shaping up today, it looks like tomorrow may be the right setup for the short-term bounce. I wouldn't imagine it holding for more than a day or two, though. Thoughts?

Sounds like a plan.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 3 cents today.

Both Japan and Australia are down a little bit but the Nikkei is trending up. The currency markets are looking a OK at the moment. I think the other countries are just waiting for the USM to have a big rally.

Pending home sales index tomorrow.:worried:

If it's a slow start tomorrow, I'll be selling.

 

[Robo5555]

Nothing with the word "homes" attached is a good thing.

 

[Robo5555]

Futures are up nicely today. N300 up almost 1%.

 

[pezfallout]

Is the home sales index supposed to drop before the cut-off? Might get burned if you decide to sell on good news, or sit on the bad. :-/

EDIT:

US - Pending Home Sales Index (, 2008)
Tuesday, January 08, 2008 10:00 AM

Should give us some time to figure out what the market is going to do.

 

[pezfallout]

Europe shares echo rally in US stocks after data
Tue Jan 8, 2008 10:11am EST

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - European shares rose to session highs on Tuesday, echoing a rally in U.S. stocks after a drop in U.S. home sales data fuelled expectations of an equities-supportive rate cut.
The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index fell 2.6 percent to 87.6 in November from an upwardly revised 89.9 in October.
By 1510 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 1.3 percent at 1,477.08 points, just shy of the the high for the day at 1,477.56.
U.S. benchmark indexes .DJI .SPX .IXIC were up between 0.6 and 1.0 percent.


More after the jump:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL0811094420080108?rpc=44

Everyone's getting excited about the possible rate cut. If the US and Europe finish strong, today, it will setup Japan for a big gain and hopefully continue on throughout tomorrow.

Decisions, decisions...:suspicious:

 

[Howxotk]

FWIW I Just bailed to the G fund, just doesn't feel like rally will materialize, fundamentals pulling too hard, if markets tank later in day we're screwed for tomorrow. Howxotk

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 11 cents.

 

[pezfallout]

FWIW I Just bailed to the G fund, just doesn't feel like rally will materialize, fundamentals pulling too hard, if markets tank later in day we're screwed for tomorrow. Howxotk

I'm getting the same feeling. Dead-cat is all that's running through my head. Anyone else feeling the same?

 

[350zCommTech]

MSCI EAFE = .4% or 10 cents.

FV = -46 cents.

-46 + 10 = -36 cents total.

 

[Gunny]

350...how do you get that -46 FV? I'm still lost about the FV thing. Thanx.

 

[Gunny]

350...Am I kinda correct if I calculate the FV as the percentage the US market went down relative to the share price of the I fund? Basically a 2% drop in the US market before 4pm would equal about .48 cents FV??? I hope I'm sort of understanding. If not...oh well. Thanx.

 

[DCguy]

wow another red day with big loss.

 

[350zCommTech]

350...Am I kinda correct if I calculate the FV as the percentage the US market went down relative to the share price of the I fund? Basically a 2% drop in the US market before 4pm would equal about .48 cents FV??? I hope I'm sort of understanding. If not...oh well. Thanx.

Yup, that's what I'm basing today on. They will use different methods in different situations.