350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

[350zCommTech]

I see some serious economic slumps (I'm trying not to use the word "crash") even if the fed cuts rates it still won't get us going. I may just go sideline for the next month to keep what I got.

An inter-meeting cut will have just a one day rally, IMO.

 

[poolman]

An inter-meeting cut will have just a one day rally, IMO.

I agree. I'm thinking about going in maybe 50% total, but worried about the Big Boy's coming back on Monday. Economic calender for Monday look's light, would be a good day for fed change, Tuesday's calender very busy. I'm not sure. Overall I know we are going lower, love to catch a bounce though, but not a knife.

 

[poolman]

There will be alot of technical damage done if we close at these levels, but then again the fed could screw everything up with a cut.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 42 cents.

 

[Show-me]

There will be alot of technical damage done if we close at these levels, but then again the fed could screw everything up with a cut.

That's right! Don't trust the Fed they hate shorts or down markets.

 

[fedgolfer]

it ain't a rate cut, but it's somethin'

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080104/fed_credit_crisis.html

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey fedgolfer,

Do you remember your post before Xmas about the options activity for Jan?

This was my reply to you on the Dec 23rd.

Ok, after digging around a little bit. Here's what I gathered from some of the smarter traders out there.

The VIX JAN futures are pointing to a higher VIX(23). The VIX closed on Firday at 18.47. This just means that they're expecting a lower market in Janurary.

On the VIX options, as of Friday, the implied volatility on some VIX puts were very very low. The implied volatility on some VIX calls were very high. This means the option writers are expecting a much higher VIX between now and OPEX. A much higher VIX translates to a big sell off in the market.

Since the VIX closed on Friday just a hair below the 200dma(hasn't done it since April), it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that the VIX might try to bounce and revert to the mean. So these option writers might be pricing in the obvious or they might know something. Just MHO. Take for what it's worth. ZER0.

So, in other words, between now and Jan 21st, be careful.

I just wanted to say thank you!

 

[poolman]

Hey 350Z,

If you get time can you give me your f-fund estimate.

 

[fedgolfer]

Hey fedgolfer,

Do you remember your post before Xmas about the options activity for Jan?

This was my reply to you on the Dec 23rd.



I just wanted to say thank you!

Thanks for replying with that info... you were wise. I got caught catching a falling knife in TSP and my good ole' AAPL. The early bird sometimes gets his a$$ kicked

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey 350Z,

If you get time can you give me your f-fund estimate.

Sure thing.

Up 2 cents at the moment.

Bonds are struggling despite a huge sell-off in equities. Bullish divergence in the stocks?

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks for replying with that info... you were wise. I got caught catching a falling knife in TSP and my good ole' AAPL. The early bird sometimes gets his a$$ kicked

I did my part for Apple. I bought a shuffle, nano, and an ipod touch for the family for Xmas. Now, I need to get myself an Iphone.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I did my part for Apple. I bought a shuffle, nano, and an ipod touch for the family for Xmas. Now, I need to get myself an Iphone.

I got my wife an apple i-Touch and we both like it. I even let her use it sometimes, but not often.

 

[350zCommTech]

I got my wife an apple i-Touch and we both like it. I even let her use it sometimes, but not often.

LOL!

Yeah, it's pretty cool. Ain't it?

 

[350zCommTech]

NDX has broken through it's 200dma again and SPX is approaching 1407.

1407 needs to HOLD!!!!!!

 

[poolman]

Sure thing.

Up 2 cents at the moment.

Bonds are struggling despite a huge sell-off in equities. Bullish divergence in the stocks?

Thanks 350Z,

I'm not feeling good about Monday. :worried:

We need a 400 point flush today for me to feel pretty good over the weekend.

I hope we Monday because I do not see good things ahead.

 

[poolman]

Thanks 350Z,

I'm not feeling good about Monday. :worried:

We need a 400 point flush today for me to feel pretty good over the weekend.

I hope we BOUNCE Monday because I do not see good things ahead.

 

[DCguy]

wow.. is this the bottomless pit I'm seeing?? It'll seem like we got 20+% gain at the end of this year, Dec 2008, but only because we drop to the bottom and climb back up and we all will say it was a good year... not remembering what happened in Jan..

 

[Frixxxx]

NDX has broken through it's 200dma again and SPX is approaching 1407.

1407 needs to HOLD!!!!!!

Holding....but Monday, hmm, I wish I would have jumped today but got stuck away from a computer. Monday, hmmm, This could be the first time I was glad to see a Monday.....Please-O-Please let Monday be good!

 

[350zCommTech]

We might see a 16 cent -FV, for a total of -58 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

The good:

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View attachment 2994
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The bad:

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The ugly:

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