350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

[poolman]

Thanks for the charts Z. Why did I look at that....

Lot's of this, This Weekend.... Keep myself on Keel...

Thanks, Poolman

 

[MR_BOOOOM]

We might see a 16 cent -FV, for a total of -58 cents.

-69 cent total, -FV of 27 cents ?

Is this correct ?

 

[350zCommTech]

We might see a 16 cent -FV, for a total of -58 cents.

I fund = 24.01

Down 69 cents. MSCI EAFE = -1.71% or -42 cents.

-FV = -27 cents.

That is a big time screw job by Barclay. With Japan down over 4% and Europe down over 2% this morning, a 27 cent -FV is way too much. A -256 point DOW does not warrant that big of a -FV. Most of the drop in the Dow actually happen while the OSM was still open.

This huge -FV is BS! There is no reason to expect Japan to not rebound after a 600 point sell-off. And Barclay and that BI@#% Tracy Ray blames us for driving up the cost in the I fund? If they would just cap the FVs at .50%, they would not have this problem.

 

[Robo5555]

Ouch!!!!!!

 

[Robo5555]

Oh well, we will recover.

 

[Howxotk]

assessing the management of the fund, tells me that when i retire to move all my assets to a conventional IRA. Maybe we can start developing a relationship with a good co. now and as we retire, keep most of us together through the years!! It will give us more leverage, we may even call it a government stock club or what have you!!
Howard

 

[Show-me]

assessing the management of the fund, tells me that when i retire to move all my assets to a conventional IRA. Maybe we can start developing a relationship with a good co. now and as we retire, keep most of us together through the years!! It will give us more leverage, we may even call it a government stock club or what have you!!
Howard

Now you're thinking. I was just talking to the Moderators about doing something similar with my Roth IRA beings the Thrift Board is trying to screw us. Using index ETF's to mimic our TSP fund just to keep it simple. To make it complicated we can use leveraged and short ETF's also. And, you can use limit buys and sells as well as stops.

 

[The_Technician]

I fund = 24.01

Down 69 cents. MSCI EAFE = -1.71% or -42 cents.

-FV = -27 cents.

That is a big time screw job by Barclay. With Japan down over 4% and Europe down over 2% this morning, a 27 cent -FV is way too much. A -256 point DOW does not warrant that big of a -FV. Most of the drop in the Dow actually happen while the OSM was still open.

This huge -FV is BS! There is no reason to expect Japan to not rebound after a 600 point sell-off. And Barclay and that BI@#% Tracy Ray blames us for driving up the cost in the I fund? If they would just cap the FVs at .50%, they would not have this problem.

I'm not so sure it was way off....my program was predicting 24.03 at the eod.......just 2 cents off the days final.....and all I'm doing is using the average percentage drop of the C and S funds to make the prediction.....it works alot of the time.


So it seems reasonable.

 

[caymanbrac12]

The market has become very oversold based Friday's action. Also the TRIN closed way above the 3.0 level on Friday which indicates a lot of panic from investors. Thus it appears an oversold bounce is nearing and could develop by Monday or Tuesday.

The best thing that could happen on Monday would be for a gap down right at the open which would give us a more favorable entry price. However it's possible the market could gap up substantially at the open as well so if that happens there really isn't much we can do about it. Let's wait and see and hope

Greg​

 

[Howxotk]

Ref: The good,bad ugly...I like this chart, and feel we'll run next week to the top of the bollinger bands, after that look out...and get out!!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=xx:1771565&time=&freq=

 

[350zCommTech]

I just noticed that Bernanke is now scheduled to speak on Thursday. The markets were hit hard last week and are now sitting on critical support. Perhaps Helicopter Ben and the cavalry is coming to the rescue?



Also on Thursday morning, both the BOE and the ECB will have their announcements. BOE is expected to cut rates.

 

[Show-me]

Whatchya think'n? Hold? I'm as nervous as a cat in a room full of rock'n chairs. That MUST mean I should hold. lol It is a nice set up for Ben to save the day and the PPT had the big public meeting Friday with the President.

One thing that just came to mind. I watch the video Robo links every once in a while. YouTube, Trading with Oscar. He had a weekend webinar and let is slip he did not think a bounce was due and a lot more down side was due. Perfect scenario for Ben to squeeze the shorts. :nuts:

 

[Show-me]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=adwqAS0LRNpc&refer=uk

Confidence Falls in U.K. on Housing, Oil Prices, Survey Shows

By Kitty Donaldson

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Short-term business confidence in the U.K. is at the lowest since Jan. 2006, reflecting weakening retail sales, a slowdown in house-price growth and rising oil prices, figures from accountants BDO Stoy Hayward show.

The trend report published today, which indicates business confidence a quarter ahead, shows a decline to 100.1 in December from 100.4 in November, reflecting the turbulence originating in the U.S. subprime housing market.

The decline in the Output Index was driven by the service industry, which fell to 99.5 in December from 100.6 in November. According to the report, this indicates that companies in this area expect growth over the next quarter to be below the U.K.'s long-term trend rate of 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent. This is the first time the service industry index has fallen below 100 since October 2005.

``With business confidence falling, particularly in the service sector, we believe further rate cuts are necessary during the first quarter of 2008,'' Peter Hemington, partner at BDO Stoy Hayward said in an e-mailed statement.

``Although inflationary expectations remain high, there is evidence that these will ease as 2008 progresses, giving the Monetary Policy Committee some slack to give the economy a boost by cutting rates. We suspect that the MPC will gauge consumer confidence during the crucial January sales period before cutting rates in February,'' he said.

 

[poolman]

``Although inflationary expectations remain high, there is evidence that these will ease as 2008 progresses, giving the Monetary Policy Committee some slack to give the economy a boost by cutting rates. We suspect that the MPC will gauge consumer confidence during the crucial January sales period before cutting rates in February,'' he said.
__________________

Hopefully this will keep the market somewhat stable and we won't have a major breakdown. It is nice if you can read the Tealeaves and in this market anything is possible. Major Gamble.

 

[350zCommTech]

Whatchya think'n? Hold? I'm as nervous as a cat in a room full of rock'n chairs. That MUST mean I should hold. lol It is a nice set up for Ben to save the day and the PPT had the big public meeting Friday with the President.

Holding is the last thing on my list. I have a chart with trend lines and fib lines that I'll be using tomorrow. I'll be looking for any excuse to exit. Unless the Feds come out with an inter-meeting cut tomorrow morning, any bounce we get will be just an oversold bounce. There are too many resistance lines above where we are now.

On Tuesday, KB-homes reports and we get pending home sales index and store sales.

Btw, currency markets are looking good. The Yen is falling and the Nikkei is rebounding after a 230 point drop at the open. The I fund is looking to benefit big tomorrow, thanks to Barclay's idiotic FV.

As I posted on Friday afternoon, Barclay went too far with a -27 cent FV, on a freakin' Friday! After a 600 point drop in the Nikkei and over 2% drop in Europe. This is the exact same situation as the one in Oct that Tracy Ray used to show how frequent traders made a lot of money in the I fund. Suggesting that we frequent traders were stealing money? Tracy Ray is just not smart enough to understand that Barclay's FVs is a major part of the problem.

Here's a question: Was Tracy Ray lurking around here as Desperado???

 

[hessian]

Desperado

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Last Activity: 11-24-2007 12:53 PM
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Monkey Herder Extraordinaire
A blind-folded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial section could select a portfolio which would perform just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.
--Burton G Malkiel

LOL !

 

[Gunny]

Call me crazy...but I think this week is going to be a monster up week for the I fund! I'm a little scared about Friday though as any gains Mon-Thur might have a slight correction before the Friday close. Just my opinion. I definitely do not suggest sitting on the sidelines this week though. Good luck everyone!

 

[weatherweenie]

Bloomberg quote
-0.751%

 

[Robo5555]

A blind-folded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial section could select a portfolio which would perform just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.
--Burton G Malkiel

LOL ![/QUOTE]

I agree with this statement to an extent.

 

[Robo5555]

Are we up for a rollercoaster year or what!! Its going to be crazy.