350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

[ChemEng]

WOW! :blink:

Is that a record downward move?

I guess that evens out all my FV plays last year.

 

[Rod]

Current estimate: Down 4.6% or -$1.04 cents.

Don't let the headlines fool you. They are not selling because of recession fears or the Bush stimulus package. It's all about the bond insurers. The Yen carry trade went nuclear over night. This selling is fear driven. I gave warnings about this here on Thursday night and in my account talk thread on Friday morning.

An interest rate cut might be announced Tuesday morning and we will probably start to hear more about a possible bailout plan. If not, then the USM might crash on Tuesday.

So in other words... bail out of (F)???

 

[350zCommTech]

So in other words... bail out of (F)???

Yes, but here is my plan on the F fund:

Stay out of F until the fed cut. On the day of the cut, move to F fund. The cut will be a one day wonder for the stock market, unless they give a big hint at more big cuts.

 

[Rod]

Yes, but here is my plan on the F fund:

Stay out of F until the fed cut. On the day of the cut, move to F fund. The cut will be a one day wonder for the stock market, unless they give a big hint at more big cuts.

I agree.

But I'm probably a day late and a dollar short since that cut may very well come tomorrow.

I was thinking of hitting all (G) on Friday because I thought that (F) was hitting the ceiling... but we'll see.

I just want to get this all over with so we can begin to make some $$$ and folks can begin to recover.

 

[350zCommTech]

It's contained!

WestLB to lose $1.5 billion, may make $1.5 billion write-off
By Steve Goldstein
Last update: 5:24 a.m. EST Jan. 21, 2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- German bank WestLB said it's going to post a loss of approximately 1 billion euros ($1.46 billion) in 2007 and may write down almost 1 billion euros. The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the regional associations and the savings banks associations will balance out the annual loss and up to 1 billion euros of write-downs in a planned capital increase, WestLB said.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/westlb-lose-15-billion-may/story.aspx?guid=%7B36017EBC%2D4A76%2D457D%2DBF1E%2D57F7A1B4F54C%7D

Bank of China to announce more subprime damage
By MarketWatch
Last update: 6:13 a.m. EST Jan. 21, 2008

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of China is expected to announce a large fourth-quarter write-down on investments backed by U.S. sub-prime mortgages when it releases full-year results in April, according to a published report Monday.

The Bank of China , one of China's big four state-owned banks, is expected to lower the estimated value on $7.95 billion in subprime-backed securities and set aside additional funds to cover potential losses, the English-language South China Morning Post reported without citing its source.
The revision comes after a sharp downturn in financial markets in the September-to-December quarter that eroded the value of its subprime portfolio. To cover the losses, the bank likely will need to set aside an additional $300 million, according to BNP Paribas estimates.

In August, the bank revealed it had $9.65 billion in subprime securities, the most of any Asian financial institution. In September, the bank set aside $322 million to account for potential losses on the investments.
Shares of Bank of China were down 3.9% in early Monday trading in Hong Kong.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={057EC6EB-2849-4B99-B53E-DE8D1732763B}

 

[James48843]

Gentlemen:

If you are at all in stocks (like I am - with 60% of my holding sitting in stocks right now), then tomorrow is going to be a very, very ugly day.

I plan to move everything to G tomorrow and hold on for a day or two to see what the heck is going to happen.

Sitting here licking my wounds in advance.....

The good news is that I have 40% off sitting in the sidelines right now.

If you can call that good news.....

(Is this the part where panic sets in? Where's that little chart showing the various stages of market meltdown when you need it...)

 

[Nimrod1193]

I've been clinging to the lily pad for dear life since Dec 13th. :blink:

 

[rob10000]

(Is this the part where panic sets in? Where's that little chart showing the various stages of market meltdown when you need it...)

the "Five Stages of Grief." They are:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance


​

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 5.53% or - $1.25.

 

[Rod]

Wow... Nov 2006 (I) Fund prices.:nuts:

Wouldn't it be great to buy in at least @ 19.00!

 

[hessian]

(Is this the part where panic sets in? Where's that little chart showing the various stages of market meltdown when you need it...)

Rob1,
What James is referring to is a chart showing: he's saying he's at "Panic" -next is "Capitulation," then is the bottoms "despondency" and "depression" -after these the cycle starts back up (w/ "hope").
[Sorry, all I have is hardcopy/printout of chart That Tom posted -and you asked about (posted on my wall with others]

350,
Re: "Its contained", I suppose its good, welcomed (vs Armagedon tomorrow), but still, isn't it temporary? I foresee buy-outs of these specific insurers, as a likely, probable scenario.
While I agree, against a US buy-up, as anything resembling a socialistic solution, I'd even less want to see foreign investors grab up these, as losing more of our America! (eg Dubai, Saudis, China, etc.) :worried:
Only seeking your opinion/perspective, not positing one myself!
VR

 

[fedgolfer]

... just hitting the MBs late after seeing how bad OSMs were. I'm 50/50 (G/F)... but is the F going to take it on chin big time on Tuesday as well?

 

[weatherweenie]

Down 5.53% or - $1.25.

I fund was already down about 9% in January.

 

[Rod]

I fund was already down about 9% in January.

8.9% to be precise, IAW my calculations.

TOTAL: Down 14.43% in 3 weeks.

 

[Rod]

8.9% to be precise, IAW my calculations.

TOTAL: Down 14.43% in 3 weeks.

AND TO THINK THAT I WAS PLANNING ON GOING 100(I) TO RING IN THE NEW YEAR!

WHEW!!!!!!

 

[RAE]

... just hitting the MBs late after seeing how bad OSMs were. I'm 50/50 (G/F)... but is the F going to take it on chin big time on Tuesday as well?

They were discussing the F fund earlier this morning over on 350z's account talk, I believe. The general consensus seems to be that you do not want to be in F fund on the day the Fed cuts rates, 'cause the F fund will take a big hit that day. So, unless the Fed steps in tomorrow with an inter-meeting rate cut, you should be okay. After the Fed cut, it's probably safe to get back into F fund

 

[350zCommTech]

350,
Re: "Its contained", I suppose its good, welcomed (vs Armagedon tomorrow), but still, isn't it temporary? I foresee buy-outs of these specific insurers, as a likely, probable scenario.
While I agree, against a US buy-up, as anything resembling a socialistic solution, I'd even less want to see foreign investors grab up these, as losing more of our America! (eg Dubai, Saudis, China, etc.) :worried:
Only seeking your opinion/perspective, not positing one myself!
VR

I was being sarcastic when I said "It's contained".

As much as I don't want to see it happen, I believe that at the end of the day, there will some form of a bail out.

 

[350zCommTech]

... just hitting the MBs late after seeing how bad OSMs were. I'm 50/50 (G/F)... but is the F going to take it on chin big time on Tuesday as well?

Depends on the Fed or Bush.

 

[weatherweenie]

eafe -5.61%

 

[James48843]

Here is another variation of that fear chart I was talking about:

View attachment 3129​

I would say tomorrow is going to be a very, very interesting day.

Good thing I have at least a dozen years before retirement. I'm going to need all that time to make up for what is going to happen tomorrow.