350zCommtech's Account Talk

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... Paulson and Bernanke would be brilliant if they made everyone assume we were going to be paying a premium for this going into a vote... but then actually pass at a cost closer to the fire-sale price... all of sudden eveyone watching this closely would be behind it and purchase financials like no tomorrow. Unlikely though.
 
Signing off on this idea is political suicide!
Proof? There are a substantial number of Republicans who think this is crazy. If the President's own party is saying "You have got to be kidding!", this is a bad plan!
Problem is, this bill not passing will be political suicide if what Paulson and Berneke predict happens.
Easy way out? Let others pass it, vote against it, then say "I was the vote in the Wilderness" and beat your chest.
Hard way out? Everyone walk away, $700 billion is Too Much Money, and if the economy tanks, so be it. After all while all this is happening, there is other Congressional business, like the new fiscal year budget, that need to be finished before they leave.
 
fedgolfer said:
... Paulson and Bernanke would be brilliant if they made everyone assume we were going to be paying a premium for this going into a vote... but then actually pass at a cost closer to the fire-sale price... all of sudden eveyone watching this closely would be behind it and purchase financials like no tomorrow. Unlikely though.
Click to expand...

As much as I disagree with Paulson's bailout, I agree with you that it's going to happen. Paulson is basically asking for the moon, but will probably give in to congress on minor stuff such as CEO pay and bonuses. It's a good strategy. I can see congress agreeing on 80-90 cents on the dollar. They are after all, Wall Street whores. Markets will rally huge on this. That is probably why Warren Buffet invested in GS. But if it's anything closer to fire-sale prices, markets will sell off.

We need to keep pressure on our politicians so that some good things get included in this bailout, such as better regulation, oversight on King Paulson, and as close as possible to fire-sale prices. Otherwise, the American taxpayers will get raped.
 
350zCommTech said:
As much as I disagree with Paulson's bailout, I agree with you that it's going to happen. Paulson is basically asking for the moon, but will probably give in to congress on minor stuff such as CEO pay and bonuses. It's a good strategy. I can see congress agreeing on 80-90 cents on the dollar. They are after all, Wall Street whores. Markets will rally huge on this. That is probably why Warren Buffet invested in GS. But if it's anything closer to fire-sale prices, markets will sell off.

We need to keep pressure on our politicians so that some good things get included in this bailout, such as better regulation, oversight on King Paulson, and as close as possible to fire-sale prices. Otherwise, the American taxpayers will get raped.
Click to expand...

as much as we don't like footin' a $700b tab, just imagine what the jobs/unemployment #'s will look like in the coming months if they don't act now. They really do have to do it... any business not brining in cash will be done. All those small caps trading low levels will not get capital injections from private equity and sovereign wealth funds. One of my wife's contracts is with a company in that very position... they along with thousands of other US companies will be cooked withing a year if they don't act now. So while it may cost us $2.5k per taxpayer, at least America will have jobs to pay those taxes.
 
man, Bernanke is stumbling on his words right now trying to explain why the taxpayer should pay more than the fire-sale price.
 
fedgolfer said:
as much as we don't like footin' a $700b tab, just imagine what the jobs/unemployment #'s will look like in the coming months if they don't act now. They really do have to do it... any business not brining in cash will be done. All those small caps trading low levels will not get capital injections from private equity and sovereign wealth funds. One of my wife's contracts is with a company in that very position... they along with thousands of other US companies will be cooked withing a year if they don't act now. So while it may cost us $2.5k per taxpayer, at least America will have jobs to pay those taxes.
Click to expand...

Yup, the good old, "bail us out or jobs will be lost", routine. You and I both know that Hank and Ben have been lying and are now lying to congress. Their timing is suspicious. If there is going to be a bailout, it has to be at fire-sale prices.
 
Bernanke, "Does not expect bailout to impact inflation".


The bond market and the commodities market disagrees with him. Just look at what happened to them last Thursday and Friday. Just more lies.
 
350zCommTech said:
Yup, the good old, "bail us out or jobs will be lost", routine. You and I both know that Hank and Ben have been lying and are now lying to congress. Their timing is suspicious. If there is going to be a bailout, it has to be at fire-sale prices.
Click to expand...

I don't think Hank and Ben's motives are so black/white. Their bailout does favor GS and financail institutions, but it helps a lot more than just that and I do believe any intervention slows the decline and slows the rush to unemployment lines. On a sidenote, we're going to have to bailout the automakers and BAC too if they can't put a hold on it. BAC paid way too much for MER, and MER didn't de-leverage. So I imagine they just purchased billions in toxic debt, and they now fall under a "too big to fail" moniker too. If you vote no on the bailout, we crash and will have to bailout, if you vote yes, we have a chance... either way, global socialism is where we are and where we're headed each time we take a further step. Here comes Ron Paul to slap 'em on the wrist.
 
fedgolfer said:
I don't think Hank and Ben's motives are so black/white. Their bailout does favor GS and financail institutions, but it helps a lot more than just that and I do believe any intervention slows the decline and slows the rush to unemployment lines. On a sidenote, we're going to have to bailout the automakers and BAC too if they can't put a hold on it. BAC paid way too much for MER, and MER didn't de-leverage. So I imagine they just purchased billions in toxic debt, and they now fall under a "too big to fail" moniker too. If you vote no on the bailout, we crash and will have to bailout, if you vote yes, we have a chance... either way, global socialism is where we are and where we're headed each time we take a further step. Here comes Ron Paul to slap 'em on the wrist.
Click to expand...

I like this guy's solution:

Btw, MER was about to go boom and most believed that BAC was forced to buy MER.

 
... transparency should go further than Level III assests and further than financial institutions... what about Fed and Treasury transparency... who really benefits from raising the debt ceiling and printing more dollars... some entity has to be gaining from this debt creation.
 
Here is a thought:

Big sell off on Friday to scare congress and the public. Monday morning before the bell, CNBC announce that the bailout deal has been struck. Markets shoot to the moon.

If only I could make an IFT....:(
 
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