350zCommtech's Account Talk

[justbizness45]

I'm going to open a trading account. Anyone know anything about Zecco??

 

[Guest2]

Wow! VIX broke support. A close above 900 on the SPX is very bullish. Looks like I might have made a huge mistake bailing out yesterday.

Oh well, December is just around the corner.

Thats right my friend, December is just two trading days away.
If there was a mistake, it wasnt so huge. The conflict in technicals
was a sound reason for caution, I did the same thing for the same
reasons. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family !

 

[Gumby]

I'm going to open a trading account. Anyone know anything about Zecco??

I don't know anything about Zecco.....but I have a couple of Scottrade accounts that I am happy with.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thats right my friend, December is just two trading days away.
If there was a mistake, it wasnt so huge. The conflict in technicals
was a sound reason for caution, I did the same thing for the same
reasons. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family !

Thank you SB.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and to all here at TSPtalk.

 

[350zCommTech]

Wow! Somebody wanted treasuries in a bad way 15 mins ago.

View attachment 5181

 

[350zCommTech]

If it breaks 837, next support is 818.

 

[poolman]

If it breaks 837, next support is 818.

Well let's see. Bernanke is speaking which means the chit is hitting the fan and he needs to cover his azz. I wouldn't doubt him having a way to know whether the market is liking or disliking what he is saying. He's talking mumbo jumbo. He just needs to let people know in plain English.

I just saw one bounce at 839. If it breaks through I see DJIA down 700 today.:nuts:

 

[350zCommTech]

Well let's see. Bernanke is speaking which means the chit is hitting the fan and he needs to cover his azz. I wouldn't doubt him having a way to know whether the market is liking or disliking what he is saying. He's talking mumbo jumbo. He just needs to let people know in plain English.

I just saw one bounce at 839. If it breaks through I see DJIA down 700 today.:nuts:

With bond yields crashing to new lows last week and again today, it appears that a lot of people out there would rather park there money in treasuries for 2.7%. At risk of sounding like a doom and gloom'er, perhaps these people know something that we, the public, have yet to find out?

It would be interesting to see whether the market will bounce when bond yields snap back.

 

[poolman]

If it breaks 837, next support is 818.

818 Bust

Dow Down 700

 

[350zCommTech]

818 Bust

Dow Down 700

This does not look good. A pullback was expected but this is scary. Notice the lack of short covering at the end.

 

[poolman]

This does not look good. A pullback was expected but this is scary. Notice the lack of short covering at the end.

It look's like 768 on the SPX for next support

 

[350zCommTech]

I just saw one bounce at 839. If it breaks through I see DJIA down 700 today.:nuts:

-680.

Any guess for tomorrow's close?

 

[350zCommTech]

It look's like 768 on the SPX for next support

Did you mean 778? Because I see 800 followed by 778.

 

[Birchtree]

Could easily be up 800 points again - this is somekind of volatility.

 

[poolman]

Did you mean 778? Because I see 800 followed by 778.

Sorry, I did mean 778.

 

[poolman]

-680.

Any guess for tomorrow's close?

LOL, I will tell you tomorrow.

 

[350zCommTech]

Pay attention to the bold part in the middle(added by me). It explains why bond yields have been dropping. Forcing yields down is their new game plan. They tried to do it with LIBOR and ended up rendering LIBOR usless. While mortgage rates have bounced up after the initial big drop last week, they're still lower than 2-3 weeks ago. While I doubt that this plan will work, it's certainly helps to have lower mortgage rates.

Also, with bond yields so low, I would avoid the F fund. When the Feds are done, a snap back up in yields could hurt the F fund.

Bernanke: lower interest rates are "feasible"

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 1 hr 10 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that further interest-rate cuts are "certainly feasible," but he warned there are limits to how much such action would revive an economy likely to stay weak well into next year.

The Fed's key interest rate now stands at 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century. To help lift the country out of a recession that started in December of last year, many economists predict Bernanke and his colleagues will drop the rate again at their next meeting on Dec. 15-16.

Bernanke spoke just hours after the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007.

He didn't mention the NBER's finding in his speech to business leaders in Austin, Texas, nor in answering questions afterward. However, Bernanke warned that the economy likely will remain stuck in a slump.

"Even if the functioning of financial markets continues to improve, economic conditions will probably remain weak for a time," he said.
In his speech, Bernanke noted that the bracing impact of the Fed's aggressive rate reductions has been somewhat stymied by the worst credit and financial crises to hit the world economy since the 1930s. Despite lower borrowing costs ordered by the Fed, skittish banks have been reluctant to lend money to people and businesses, a vicious cycle that has seriously hobbled the U.S. economy.

"Although further reductions ... are certainly feasible, at this point the scope for using conventional interest rate policies to support the economy is obviously limited," Bernanke said in the speech. The Fed can lower its key rate only so far — to zero — and it's getting ever closer to that threshold.

Bernanke said there are other ways that the Fed might bolster economic activity.

The Fed, for instance, could buy longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities, he said. This might lower rates on these securities, "thus helping to spur aggregate demand," Bernanke said.

The Fed chief's remarks failed to comfort Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 680 points.
Given the limits to how low the Fed can go in reducing interest rates, the central bank over the past year has resorted to a flurry of other radical — and often unprecedented actions — with the hope of busting through credit jams and getting financial markets operating more normally.

It has ramped up cash and other types of loans to financial institutions, started buying mounds of short-term debt that companies rely on for day-to-day operations like paying salaries and buying supplies, and expanded its emergency lending program to investment firms.
Just last week the Fed announced two new programs aimed at increasing the availability and lowering the costs of credit card loans, auto loans, student loans and home mortgages.

The Fed last week said it would purchase $200 billion in securities backed by different types of consumer debt. That market essentially froze in October, making such loans harder to obtain while carrying higher interest rates.

The Fed also said it would spend $500 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and another $100 billion to directly purchase mortgages held by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
Bernanke said the Fed will continue to look for innovative ways to break through the credit logjams.

"We at the Federal Reserve and our colleagues at other federal agencies will carefully monitor the conditions of all key financial institutions and stand ready to act as needed to preserve their viability in this difficult financial environment," Bernanke said.

The NBER — a private, nonprofit research organization — said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles met on Friday and decided that the country tipped into recession in December 2007. The economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.
The economy jolted into reverse again in the summer. Many economists predict it is still shrinking now and will continue to do so through the first quarter of next year.

Consumers — major shapers of national economic activity — likely will keep cutting back on their spending, he said Consumers have been reeling from job losses, hard-to-get credit and hits to their wealth from sinking home values and tanking portfolio investments.
In October, the unemployment rate zoomed to 6.5 percent, a 14-year high. So far this year, 1.2 million positions have disappeared. The jobless rate is likely to climb to 8 percent or higher next year.

A student of the Great Depression, Bernanke said the current period of economic woe bears "no comparison in terms of severity" to the 1930s.

Asked how he would like to be remembered as Fed chairman, Bernanke said: "I hope it would be that we got the financial crisis under control, that we set a groundwork for ... strong growth in our economy and that we began a process of healing."
On his point about mending, Bernanke acknowledged: "It's going to take a while."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081201/ap_on_bi_ge/bernanke

 

[coolhand]

Pay attention to the bold part in the middle(added by me). It explains why bond yields have been dropping. Forcing yields down is their new game plan. They tried to do it with LIBOR and ended up rendering LIBOR usless. While mortgage rates have bounced up after the initial big drop last week, they're still lower than 2-3 weeks ago. While I doubt that this plan will work, it's certainly helps to have lower mortgage rates.

Also, with bond yields so low, I would avoid the F fund. When the Feds are done, a snap back up in yields could hurt the F fund.

I agree. It just takes a little time to play out. We're still setting up a for big move at some point IMO. Just not sure when.

 

[350zCommTech]

I agree. It just takes a little time to play out. We're still setting up a for big move at some point IMO. Just not sure when.

The Feds and CBs can't do this alone. It's essentially up to banks to lower mortgage rates. Banks have to weigh risk, profitability, and return of capital. With the 10yr yield at 2.7%, a 30yr mortgage rate should be at 4.5%. In my zip code, the average 30yr fix has dropped under 6%, but Countrywide is offering 7.290%.

 

[350zCommTech]

RBA just cut 1%. BOE and ECB will probably cut on Thursday. Question is how much. Last month the BOE surprised everybody with a 1.5% cut. I would not expect a rally just because of these cuts. We might be looking at a race to ZERO. I would expect the dollar to continue it's uptrend.

Also the Yen is acting a bit strange tonight. Smells like intervention again. The USD/YEN is currently at 93.44. Getting close to that 90(line in the sand) range.

Australian central bank slashes interest rates by 100 basis points

32 minutes ago


http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h1ENw0hg1PNwGI0rG4YH5BLgPKLg