350zCommtech's Account Talk

350,

This infprmation is spot on to have significant impact on the markets one way or the other. I do appreciate your posting this article, but please call for others to try to explain if this event will throw the markets in a down spiral (which could be a buying opportunity for those still having an IFT left for the month). Frankly, this eludes me, so I guess it is above my head to understand. At least, the article states that "Those on the wrong side of these Lehman debt contracts - known as credit default swaps (CDS) - must come up with the money by Tuesday, the next D-Day in the ever-fraught calendar of the credit markets. There has been a deafening silence so far."

Questions: Much uncertainty, and thus bad for stock funds? ... or a historic event sparking a surprising rally to the upside? ... ride this out, or go into protection of capital until next month?

First video explains CDS for anyone that doesn't understand them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-U65WefAL0

Second video minimizes the effect of the cashout next week. If you believe these guys there won't be much churn from this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-PZDySAbC4
 
Questions: Much uncertainty, and thus bad for stock funds? ... or a historic event sparking a surprising rally to the upside? ... ride this out, or go into protection of capital until next month?

I don't think people are going to wait until next Tuesday to raise the money needed. That is probably what they have been doing the last two weeks, which also explains the bid drop in both oil and gold, along with the decline in the market.

Having said that, after yesterday's close, a lot of people around here were thinking the bottoms were tested and now the markets are going to shoot to the moon. i.e. the greatest bull market rally ever, blah, blah, blah, etc....

What happens if the markets makes a lower low today? If that happens, I think you can kiss you W bottom goodbye.:)
 
Hey 350Z,

Just saw the news on CNBC about Linens & Things. Sorry about that man.

The company that pays my wife's largest contract just filed Chapter 11 this morning. Can't find financing to keep it afloat and is struggling w/ current debt holders. This equals to job losses, lower household incomes, less spending, bad consumer numbers. It will get worse before it gets better... LNT, WRSP are just some of thousands of companies about to get whacked on the head.

What makes me even more sick is that Paulson and Co., are giving the bailout money without any conditions. The banks are using it to deleverage/meet margin & maintenance requirements/and further hedge out of trouble. But they're not pouring any money back into the economy as credit -- they're just using it to cover their butts. How many times have we heard banks say they are delevered? Bull sh*t... even the guy from PIMCO says the biggest deleveraging move has yet to come. To go from 40x down to zero leverage on the volume they hold means equities go to zero. Good night.
 
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Hey 350Z,

Just saw the news on CNBC about Linens & Things. Sorry about that man.

Thanks poolman.

The company that pays my wife's largest contract just filed Chapter 11 this morning. Can't find financing to keep it afloat and is struggling w/ current debt holders. This equals to job losses, lower household incomes, less spending, bad consumer numbers. It will get worse before it gets better... LNT, WRSP are just some of thousands of companies about to get whacked on the head.

What makes me even more sick is that Paulson and Co., are giving the bailout money without any conditions. The banks are using it to deleverage/meet margin & maintenance requirements/and further hedge out of trouble. But they're not pouring any money back into the economy as credit -- they're just using it to cover their butts. How many times have we heard banks say they are delevered? Bull sh*t... even the guy from PIMCO says the biggest deleveraging move has yet to come. To go from 40x down to zero leverage on the volume they hold means equities go to zero. Good night.

It's really disgusting that all that bailout money went to their Wall St. friends, like those AIG bastard, CEOs. They had the balls to lie to congress about how the bailouts were going to save jobs. Pure BS.
 
I was out golfing. What happened this afternoon? Was there bad news again?

Looking at the charts, the S&P appears to be forming a triangle. Which way will it break? I don't know.:D
 
Looking at the charts, the S&P appears to be forming a triangle. Which way will it break? I don't know.:D[/quote]


Hard to say. Warren Buffet was not able to pump the market today and that is kinda scary. He has probably done it successfully the last 3 times which where fairly recent.

Lot's on the calender next week..
news.gif
 
Hard to say. Warren Buffet was not able to pump the market today and that is kinda scary. He has probably done it successfully the last 3 times which where fairly recent.

Lot's on the calender next week..
news.gif

I wonder what makes Warren Buffet think this is the bottom? I know that his time frame is 5 to 10 years, but how in the world are we going to get out of this mess without some kind of a recession?

In the previous recession, after the tech bubble burst, it took the market 3 yrs before it found a bottom. Furthermore, the Nasdaq has yet to recover. Wouldn't he be smarter to wait a year or two to see how this plays out?
 
Wealth distribution? WTF:mad:

Wall Street bankers in line for $70bn payout

Pay and bonus deals equivalent to 10% of US government bail-out package

Simon Bowers
Financial workers at Wall Street's top banks are to receive pay deals worth more than $70bn (£40bn), a substantial proportion of which is expected to be paid in bonuses, for their work so far this year - despite plunging the global financial system into its worst crisis since the 1929 stock market crash, the Guardian has learned.

Staff at six banks including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup will pick up the payouts despite being the beneficiaries of a $700bn bail-out from the US government that has already prompted widespread criticism. The government cash has been poured in on the condition that excessive executive pay will be curbed.

Pay plans for bankers have been disclosed in recent corporate statements. Pressure on the US firms to review preparations for annual bonuses increased yesterday when Germany's Deutsche Bank said many of its leading traders would join chief executive Josef Ackermann in waiving millions of euro in annual payouts.

The sums that continue to be spent by Wall Street firms on payroll, payoffs and - most controversially - bonuses appear to bear no relation to the heavy losses incurred by investors in the banks. Shares in Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have declined by more than 45% since the start of the year. Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley have fallen by more than 60%. JP MorganChase fell 6.4% and Lehman Brothers has collapsed.

At one point last week the Morgan Stanley $10.7bn pay pot for the year to date was greater than the entire stock market value of the business. In effect, staff, on receiving their remuneration, could club together and buy the bank.

In the first nine months of the year Citigroup, which employs thousands of staff in the UK, accrued $25.9bn for salaries and bonuses, an increase on the previous year of 4%. Earlier this week the bank accepted a $25bn investment by the US government as part of its bail-out plan.

At Goldman Sachs the figure was $11.4bn, Morgan Stanley $10.73bn, JP MorganChase $6.53bn and Merrill Lynch $11.7bn. At Merrill, which was on the point of going bust last month before being taken over by Bank of America, the amount accrued in the last quarter grew 76% to $3.49bn. At Morgan Stanley, the amount put aside for staff compensation also grew in the last quarter to the end of September by 3% to $3.7bn.

Days before it collapsed into bankruptcy protection a month ago Lehman Brothers revealed $6.12bn of staff pay plans in its corporate filings. These payouts, the bank insisted, were justified despite net revenue collapsing from $14.9bn to a net outgoing of $64m.None of the banks the Guardian contacted wished to comment on the record about their pay plans. Behind the scenes, one source said: "For a normal person the salaries are very high and the bonuses seem even higher. But in this world you get a top bonus for top performance, a medium bonus for mediocre performance and a much smaller bonus if you don't do so well."

Many critics of the investment banking model have questioned why firms continues to siphon off billions of dollars of bank earnings into annual bonus pools rather than using the funds to shore up the capital position of the crisis-stricken institutions. One banking source said: "That's a fair enough question - and it may well be that by the end of the year the banks start review the situation." Much of the anger about investment banking bonuses has focused on boardroom executives such as former Lehman boss Dick Fuld, who was paid $485m in salary, bonuses and options between 2000 and 2007. Last year Merrill Lynch chairman Stan O'Neal retired after announcing losses of $8bn, taking a final pay deal worth $161m. Citigroup boss Chuck Prince left last year with a $38m in bonuses, shares and options after multibillion-dollar write-downs.

In Britain, Bob Diamond, Barclays president, is one of the few investment bankers whose pay is made public. Last year he received a salary of £250,000, but his total pay, including bonuses, reached £36m. One London-based banking source, who worked for a US bank, said many in the City were expecting star traders to see little reduction in their bonuses. "The real 'rain-makers' will not notice an impact. It will be the more middle-ranking people who will be really hit."http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/17/executivesalaries-banking
 
I wonder what makes Warren Buffet think this is the bottom? I know that his time frame is 5 to 10 years, but how in the world are we going to get out of this mess without some kind of a recession?

In the previous recession, after the tech bubble burst, it took the market 3 yrs before it found a bottom. Furthermore, the Nasdaq has yet to recover. Wouldn't he be smarter to wait a year or two to see how this plays out?


Buffet is a shameless huckster, in my opinion, albeit a very shrewd one. Apparently, others also think so - his "good" name certainly didn't do much for GS and GE common stock prices. Also, his pumping of the market didn't help overall market prices today. He is no-doubt afraid that his own personal investments, as well as Berkshire, are going to tank.
 
I wonder what makes Warren Buffet think this is the bottom? I know that his time frame is 5 to 10 years, but how in the world are we going to get out of this mess without some kind of a recession?

In the previous recession, after the tech bubble burst, it took the market 3 yrs before it found a bottom. Furthermore, the Nasdaq has yet to recover. Wouldn't he be smarter to wait a year or two to see how this plays out?

If the market does not play out according to his calls in the next week or so, Buffett will lose his credibility. A man of his status would not put his reputation on the line. Am I right? Joe six pack who is looking for guidance would not trust him again. Secondly, the sell off at the end of today had to do with the OPX stuff. My two cents. :cool:
 
Buffet is a shameless huckster, in my opinion, albeit a very shrewd one. Apparently, others also think so - his "good" name certainly didn't do much for GS and GE common stock prices. Also, his pumping of the market didn't help overall market prices today. He is no-doubt afraid that his own personal investments, as well as Berkshire, are going to tank.


Yeah, and tank they will.:D
 
If the market does not play out according to his calls in the next week or so, Buffett will lose his credibility. A man of his status would not put his reputation on the line. Am I right? Joe six pack who is looking for guidance would not trust him again. Secondly, the sell off at the end of today had to do with the OPX stuff. My two cents. :cool:

I have some friends who bought GE after Buffet gave his blessings. They're not happy about it.:D
 
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