FUTURESTRADER
Active member
It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion
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350zCommtech's Account Talk
- Thread starter 350zCommTech
- Start date
malyla
Active member
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Is this the breakout?
It almost was.
Maybe a bounce tomorrow before the big plunge?
View attachment 4926
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350zCommTech
Well-known member
The rule of thumb is that the plunge could be equal to the amount that it took to enter the pattern.
In this case, another 225-250 points lower on the SPX.
poolman
Top Return 2008
The Big moves are coming.> 500 point moves.
This is what I was talking about. :blink:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
This is not the best chart, but it will have to do since I can't figure out how to grab a chart from dailyfx.com.
Here is what is happening. The USDYEN is about to test the March low of 95.71. It's currently at 97.49. That March low is a low that goes back 8 or more years. If it holds, it's rally time. But I don't see it happening. It's only 2% away. The timing is very interesting since the market is about to break out of a triangle pattern. If it doesn't hold, well, we'll know which way the market breaks out of this pattern.
View attachment 4928
Here is what is happening. The USDYEN is about to test the March low of 95.71. It's currently at 97.49. That March low is a low that goes back 8 or more years. If it holds, it's rally time. But I don't see it happening. It's only 2% away. The timing is very interesting since the market is about to break out of a triangle pattern. If it doesn't hold, well, we'll know which way the market breaks out of this pattern.
View attachment 4928
Bravo Sierra
New member
Put on your adult diapers then read Denninger's (The Market Ticker) two posts today (10/22), just to add to the optimistic party theme.
He's calling for the likelihood of a bond and treasury dislocation, and it sounds painful.:blink:
He's calling for the likelihood of a bond and treasury dislocation, and it sounds painful.:blink:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Yes, I've read a lot of his posts so I know what to expect, but today's post got me really scared. He is saying it could happen within days...:worried:
KD wrote:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
To hell with all this. I've gotta get myself a large cash position, regardless of where I last "sold".
350Z I don't understand what the USD/YEN number actually means...is it a ratio or something? If the dollar goes up, does that chart go down, or up?
I noticed the dollar has been way up...so if it crashes down, what will that USDYEN chart do?
If we are lucky, there will be a short covering rally tomorrow. we might get to 950 on the apex perhaps.
350Z I don't understand what the USD/YEN number actually means...is it a ratio or something? If the dollar goes up, does that chart go down, or up?
I noticed the dollar has been way up...so if it crashes down, what will that USDYEN chart do?
If we are lucky, there will be a short covering rally tomorrow. we might get to 950 on the apex perhaps.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
The USD/YEN is 1 USD priced to Yen, or also know as USD/YEN cross. If the chart is down, it means the Yen is up against the dollar. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade causes this. This is what's been happening. For example, when a player such as a hedge fund liquidates, it will force the Yen up.
Don't confuse this with the dollar index. The dollar index is the dollar against a basket of currencies, ie Euro, Pound, Franc, etc...
Their are others that I look at but this is the main one, for now anyway.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
The dollar index has been up while the dollar falls against the Yen because the dollar has been up against the Euro and the British pound, etc....
Since the dollar rose during this crisis, if or when it reverses, the USD/YEN chart could move back up signaling a return to normalcy.
But there could also be another reason for the dollar to fall, Hank and Ben dollar printing Co.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
EUR/USD does a double bottom and futures shoot up to +10.:laugh:
I'm guessing nervous shorts covering.
I'm guessing nervous shorts covering.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
For a quick play here and there maybe, but if we get a bond market dislocation (Argentina a few days ago), look out. With our limited IFTs, it's too risky IMO.
350,
I was thinking that with the hit that we, and rest of the stock market investors are taking, but resting on the success of the coordinated efforts from the central banks to stabilize the financial system, the more realistic valuations in lower stock prices will set in. Presumably, the effect will be a cleansing of the excesses in pricing. After taking the hit, the stock market will continue to give us bear market rallies. However, the recession will probably lower the price of commodities. Nevertheless, Europe and Asia are expected to come out of this recession after the U.S. does. Assuming that the F fund is mostly invested in high grade corporate bonds, and in the better internationals, perhaps we could be looking at a more stable behavior from the F fund than from the stock funds, especially with lower interest rates throughout the recovering financial world. Do you, or anyone else, know what is the exact weighting or composition of the F fund?
I was thinking that with the hit that we, and rest of the stock market investors are taking, but resting on the success of the coordinated efforts from the central banks to stabilize the financial system, the more realistic valuations in lower stock prices will set in. Presumably, the effect will be a cleansing of the excesses in pricing. After taking the hit, the stock market will continue to give us bear market rallies. However, the recession will probably lower the price of commodities. Nevertheless, Europe and Asia are expected to come out of this recession after the U.S. does. Assuming that the F fund is mostly invested in high grade corporate bonds, and in the better internationals, perhaps we could be looking at a more stable behavior from the F fund than from the stock funds, especially with lower interest rates throughout the recovering financial world. Do you, or anyone else, know what is the exact weighting or composition of the F fund?
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Airlift, like you, I've been trying to figure out if the F Fund makes sense right now. This is all I've been able to figure out:
The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, which tracks the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) Index, and does so by purchasing shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Fund Index "E", which in turn holds shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Index Master Fund. The F Fund is invested in investment-grade fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year, with a break-out of approximately 45% asset-backed securities, 35% government or government related securities, and 20% credit.
If anyone can drill down further than that I'd love to see what they know.
I've nibbled in to F Fund (just 4%) but am waiting to see what the "No Bank Left Behind" legislation is doing to F before I make any big leap.
Lady
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Lady, Airlift
I hope others will chime in on this but, I've been saying for a month or two now that the F fund is not worth the risk. Maybe for a quick play, but not for riding out this bear market. This situation is different than the previous recessions. The Feds and other CBs are attempting to inflate out of this mess. Where do you think they are going to get the money for all these bailouts? Furthermore, think about what can happen if they keep exchanging toxic assests for treasuries.
