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I know you are better than this. I saw it...
I don't think your thinking of this 24/7
and that is o.k.
You were into this Big Time last year. You were doing
the I - Fund updates..
It's O.K.![]()
I know you are better than this. I saw it...
I don't think your thinking of this 24/7
and that is o.k.
You were into this Big Time last year. You were doing
the I - Fund updates..
It's O.K.![]()
It should be ok. Yeah, I'm so pizzed off at myself for being chicken (bak, bak) as to not go 100 C on Friday and bail Tuesday. I knew better than to "play" with is market. BTW did anyone just see Paulson with Larry Kudlow? He has beady eyes, I don't trust him.![]()
Well, the IFT limit makes it tough to put in same kind of effort that I used to do. The I fund updates were very time consuming for me, as I tried to make adjustments to my spreadsheet day after day.
The IFT restriction has hurt me this year, but in a way, it has made me a better golfer. Although, I would gladly give up my left nut to be able to hit a driver 300 yards.![]()
Well, the IFT limit makes it tough to put in same kind of effort that I used to do. The I fund updates were very time consuming for me, as I tried to make adjustments to my spreadsheet day after day.
The IFT restriction has hurt me this year, but in a way, it has made me a better golfer. Although, I would gladly give up my left nut to be able to hit a driver 300 yards.![]()
I wouldn't recommend buying too many of them or spending money on "cheat balls" either but it might just save you your left nut.
Fairways and greens !!!
My guess is if they forced EVERYBODY TO COME CLEAN - that a huge percentage of high government officials would be forced out of office; that ties between the most powerful Bank/Financial Execs and the INNER CIRCLE would expose corruption of a magnitude that would basically force us to start all over - and we'd be at a total loss of how to make that happen. That both (M) and (O) would have to admit to being tied to the mess and possibly disqualified to run.
If it were China - I would say - there is NO ROOM for cover ups; expose it all and deal with it. I therefore have to say the same for us.
350,
I wasn't able to watch Cramer in full, but by chance I saw him saying that on October 22, next week, he is advising his audience to be prepared. I will appreciate to know if someone can clarify if October 22 is supposed to be an impotant date for one reason or another. Tia.
350,
You said, "Btw, if Cramer says the 22nd, I'd make my move on the 20th.". Depending on other possibilities, maybe move some to G tomorrow Friday, instead of Monday the 20th?
This could have something to do with expiration week (see Squalebear's post in his thread). Could it have something to do with some sort of due-date for financial institutions or some similar deleveraging activity? Any other opinions are appreciated! Tia.
Thanks.
I still can't remember exactly what it was but my poor memory thinks it was the 21st and it was a potentually bad thing. Maybe I'll go watch Cramer's show online and see if it jogs my memory.
I think I provided the answer in SB's thread.![]()
I still can't remember exactly what it was but my poor memory thinks it was the 21st and it was a potentually bad thing. Maybe I'll go watch Cramer's show online and see if it jogs my memory.
Fears of Lehman's CDS derivatives haunt markets
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:18AM BST 17 Oct 2008
Ominous talk of big names and big sums continues to haunt global markets, thwarting efforts by the US and European authorities to unlock inter-bank lending.
Traders have noted with acute interest that insurer AIG - now nationalised - says it will need another $38bn from the US government, on top of the $85bn bail-out it has already received. AIG is the world's biggest underwriter of credit protection.
Those on the wrong side of these Lehman debt contracts - known as credit default swaps (CDS) - must come up with the money by Tuesday, the next D-Day in the ever-fraught calendar of the credit markets. There has been a deafening silence so far.
There is no easy way of finding out who they are, so every bank and insurer is suspect. The $55,000bn CDS market is "completely lacking in transparency and completely unregulated" in the words of Chris Cox, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
The settlement auction on Lehman CDS contracts last week was in itself a bombshell. Creditors retrieved just nine cents on the dollar from the Lehman wreckage. As Naked Capitalism put it, the bank had "vaporised". The biggest players at the auction were Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank but they were almost certainly transacting for clients.
The insurers of the debt -- a third are hedge funds -- will have to pay 91pc of the $400bn in contracts.
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation says the risks have been exaggerated in headline scare stories, insisting that the total sum to be paid will be closer to $6bn. It says most positions are "netted out".
"That's not credible," says Andrea Cicione, credit chief at BNP Paribas.
"They keep coming up with these number by 'netting' but we think the amount is going to anywhere from $220bn to $270bn. The chain broke in the CDS market when Lehman Brothers went down. We may now see other counter-parties defaulting," he said.
With hindsight, it is now clear the decision to let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt set off a melt-down of the world financial system, forcing North America, Britain, Europe, Australia, and now parts of Asia to rescue their banks. "A dramatic error," said Christine Lagarde, France's finance minister.
US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke said this week that Washington lacked the legal power to take on the vast liabilties stemming from a Lehman rescue.
"A public-sector solution for Lehman proved infeasible, as the firm could not post sufficient collateral to provide reasonable assurance that a loan from the Federal Reserve would be repaid, and the Treasury did not have the authority to absorb billions of dollars of expected losses to facilitate Lehman's acquisition by another firm. Consequently, little could be done," he said. The new legislation passed by Congress "will give us better choices."
In truth, both Congress and the US public wanted a scalp. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had to bide his time until it was clear to almost everybody that a domino collapse of the US banking system would lead to catastrophe. The Lehman collapse did the trick.
The list of companies admitting to losses on Lehman investments reveals the global extent of the damage. Dexia held €500m of bonds, which may have caused its own need for a Franco-Belgian rescue days later.
Among the others with declared exposure: Swedbank $1.2bn; Freddie Mac $1.2bn; State Street $1bn; Allianz €400m; BNP Paribas €400m; AXA €300m; Intesa Sanpaolo €260m; Raffeissen Bank €252m; Unicredit €120m; ING €100m; Danske Bank $100m; Aviva £270m; Australia and New Zealand Bank $120m; Mistubishi $235m; China Citic Bank $76m; China Construction Bank $191m, Industrial Commercial Bank of China $152m and Bank of China $76m. Ultimately, some money may be recovered.
These losses are out in the open, but the CDS shoe has yet to drop. Perversely the insured volume is greater than the $150bn total of Lehman debt. Some $400bn of CDS contracts were sold. Many were used by hedge funds to take "short" bets on the fate of the bank. The contracts nevertheless have to be honoured.
Chris Whalen, head of Institutional Risk Analytics, says this creates a huge moral dilemna. Why should taxpayers now responsible for AIG foot the bill for huge windfall transfers to hedge funds?
"We need to shut this whole thing down. The people who don't own the underlying collateral and were just betting should be flushed away. It would be grotesque if the US authorities were now to subsidize speculators. The US political class is waking up to this," he said.
If so, the winners may have more trouble than they realize collecting their prize. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...of-Lehmans-CDS-derivatives-haunt-markets.html