2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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To catch some people up the may not have been following prior to Monday,
*Iran announced their first 2 cases last week. About 3 hours later, they announced they were dead. And then they declared marshal law. So the data coming out of Iran (or most countries for that matter) isn't believed to be accurate. They went from no cases, to 2-3 deaths a day for the past week.
*South Korea only had reported about 30 cases mid last week. Then they got serious about testing people and the cases went up by about 100 a day. They went from 30 to 977 (as of 2/25 1:30pm EST) in less than a week. They passed a law so they can imprison anyone who refuses to be tested.
*Singapore has been the best at handling the outbreak since day 1. They've released details on just about every case, and how they link to other cases.
*China has been all over the map in reporting information. They had one day where the new cases went from 1-3k a day to 15k because they started reporting everyone with pneumonia (confirmed via scans), and not just people lab confirmed. the 1-3k new cases a day was believed to be bottlenecked by ability to test
The majority of the China data for the previous day is usually updated around 5:15pm EST every day.

Here are some COVID-19 resources if anyone is interested:
These two are the best for fast-updated data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Johns Hopkins Map of the data:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

More graphs/interpretations of the data:
https://covid19info.live/
 
This one just published in the New York Times- from the CDC:

Americans should prepare for coronavirus spread in U.S., CDC says

Source: NYT

Feb. 25, 2020, 12:57 PM EST

By Erika Edwards

Top U.S. public health officials said Tuesday that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country.

“It’s not so much a question of if this will happen any more, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the head of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a media briefing Tuesday.

Measures to contain the virus in the U.S. so far have involved restricting travel to and from China — the center of the outbreak — and isolating cases identified so far in this country.

But Messonnier said that evidence that the virus is spreading in other countries, such as Iran and Italy, has raised CDC’s “level of concern and expectation that we’ll see spread” in the U.S.


Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...pare-coronavirus-spread-u-s-cdc-says-n1142556
Click to expand...


OK Folks- if you are like me it's time to check your food stockpiles at home- you won't want to be venturing out soon.
Have you got 30 days rations at home? Canned good stock up time.
 
Actually, it's not a bad idea to have food, water, money, whiskey, ammunition, etc stockpiled 365 days of the year. For example, when the big earthquake hits my area of north Mississippi, it's going to be every man for himself for a few weeks.
 
rangerray said:
Actually, it's not a bad idea to have food, water, money, whiskey, ammunition, etc stockpiled 365 days of the year. For example, when the big earthquake hits my area of north Mississippi, it's going to be every man for himself for a few weeks.
Click to expand...

not such a good thing for everyone to do that shopping all at once though
 
It's unfortunate, but the whole world is spiraling down. A part of the Antarctic hit 68 degrees today, resulting in 40% ice loss in that area. The corona-virus is circulating around the planet. That puts my own economic focus on things into question.
I still want to live another 50 years, but there won't be much there, then?
 
Re: COVID-19, (was Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Has there been any reporting on power and water services? If interruption of service is likely, then might not want to stock up on refrigerated items and may want to stockpile more water.
 
Re: COVID-19, (was Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Note: Time for some morbid humor. Set your coffeecup down before watching this. You wouldn't want to spill it.

 
dannyboy said:
It's unfortunate, but the whole world is spiraling down. A part of the Antarctic hit 68 degrees today, resulting in 40% ice loss in that area. The corona-virus is circulating around the planet. That puts my own economic focus on things into question.
I still want to live another 50 years, but there won't be much there, then?
Click to expand...

People were saying this 60 years ago too.
 
(the Korea Herald)
S. Korea’s coronavirus cases exceed 1,200

By Ock Hyun-ju Published : Feb 26, 2020 - 16:40 Updated : Feb 26, 2020 - 17:55


South Korea’s confirmed coronavirus cases surged past 1,200 on Wednesday -- 37 days since the country’s first case was reported -- as the government struggles to contain community transmission of the virus.

The number of cases is expected to climb in the coming days, with municipalities testing over 210,000 followers of a minor Christian sect at the center of rapid infections here and potential new clusters of infections emerging outside Daegu.

A US solider stationed in Korea tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, marking the first such case.

Speaking at a parliamentary session Wednesday, Health and Welfare Minister Park Neung-hoo pointed to “a Korean who entered (the country) from China” as the biggest reason the coronavirus is spreading in the country, defending the government’s decision not to impose an entry ban on all of China.

As of Wednesday at 5 p.m., Korea had reported 1,261 cases and 12 deaths, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


More: S. Korea?s coronavirus cases exceed 1,200



(Korea is still having open border with China is it's now affecting the country politically. Lots of people now calling for the trade and travel to and from China to be halted.)
 
The President had a very strange press conference tonight to address the Covid-19 issue. In the press conference, he appointed VP Mike Pence to take the lead as the Covid—19 Czar. It was a strange- no, just an unusual kind of press conference.

You can watch it for yourself here. Caution, it is very long, and it doesn’t actually start until about the 37 minute mark. You may wish to fast forward:



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) OR COVID-19

[h=1]The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not "about 2%" - it's already up to 3.4%[/h]Based on tonight's numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ : Deaths 2804, Cases 82,183, the case fatality ratio is 3.41%

Not only that, but the fatality rate has been climbing steadily for the last two weeks:

12-Feb 2.13%
13-Feb 2.15%
14-Feb 2.27%
15-Feb 2.41%
16-Feb 2.49%
17-Feb 2.55%
18-Feb 2.67%
19-Feb 2.81%
20-Feb 2.93%
21-Feb 3.04%
22-Feb 3.13%
23-Feb 3.31%
24-Feb 3.37%
25-Feb 3.41%
26-Feb 3.41%


Interesting additional data and charts at that website.
 
Re: COVID-19, (was Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

The "case fatality rate" which is deaths / total cases, SHOULD grow. because new cases haven't had a chance to be closed yet. It will converge with the rate of Deaths / CLOSED cases. Which was about 20% in China for a while, and is now down to 8%.

Here is a better showing of the death rates based on age:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
The study is a few weeks old at this point, but still the most detailed information on the China numbers that we have.
 
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