2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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The trader in me tells me to get in today.
The prepper in me tells me to wait till a bottom forms and catch the ride back up.
I'm listening to the prepper.
GLTA
 
World Health Organization (WHO):
"Globally, about 3.4% of reported #COVID19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected"- @DrTedros

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234872254883909642

Which is higher than originally predicted (~2%). You get the 3.4% number by taking number of deaths divided by total number of cases. Without new cases, this value will go up.

6% of all reported 'closed' cases have ended in death.

Current death rate in the US is 6% (6 deaths /104 cases)... with 40% of all reported 'closed' cases ending in death (6 deaths / (9 recovered + 6 deaths)).
 
Well, the Fed shot their wad, and nothing much changed except a few day traders made some money. Now what?
 
TSATSO said:
Well, the Fed shot their wad, and nothing much changed except a few day traders made some money. Now what?
Click to expand...

I sit back and continue to watch from the sidelines. There isn't anything the FED can do, because this cycle isn't triggered because of a monetary or liquidity problem.

It's simply time to watch what happens, and wait for a nice, lower point to com e back in. It isn't going to be anytime soon. The October 2008 crash didn't bottom out until March 2009. This retracement isn't a crash, and it's not going to be that long- but it IS going to take a while to sort itself out.
 
This thread is the News forum, so I was gonna keep Market stuff out of it and purely about news updates/prep. Assuming you got here from the latest posts, its hard to tell that.
Try checking out...

Coronavirus and Stocks:
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/day-to-day-market-talk/33981-coronavirus-stocks.html

or even tsptalk market talk:
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-s-account-talk/7701-tsptalks-market-talk.html

TSATSO said:
Well, the Fed shot their wad, and nothing much changed except a few day traders made some money. Now what?
Click to expand...
 
Here is the March 5,2020 WHO data.

The good news is- China appears to be slowing down on the number of new cases. China has instituted severe controls on the movement of people, and they are reporting fewer new cases each day. Some still question if that is accurate. That’s all we can go by.

The bad news: still getting lots of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. Sone growth in other countries. USA now saying a total of 9 dead directly from the virus.

Data:

IMG_6727.JPG

By country:

IMG_6728.JPG

IMG_6729.JPG


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
I don't know if this Dr. Berg was forced to take this video down, but all I can see are reposts by others...



 
It’s not the current/past number of deaths that is concerning.

It’s what happens a month/three months/ a year into the future that is concerning.

Remember this chart back around January 25, when there were less than two thousand people Sick in China?


IMG_6348.JPG

Well, how much can you believe the Chinese government when they suddenly showed the expansion of the disease slowed, and yet foreign journalists are banned from reporting on scene?

Hmmm. I guess we’ll just have to watch Italy and South Korea for a while, both free societies where they can’t keep things as quiet, eh?

If you are very sure the Communist Chinese numbers are accurate and honest, I guess there isn’t much to worry about. As long as society accepts cities put on complete quarantine, and road blocks and check points on every block to verify no temperatures. And isolation so that you can only send out one person every four days to get supplies. And, hauling people away against their will if they show the slightest hint of fever.

Yes, I guess it’s not as bad as heart disease, is it? Pretty soon, everybody will be used to that kind of restriction to prevent disease. And we can return to focusing on our 401(k)’s.

(Sorry, I went 100% “C” yesterday in hopes of catching the roller coaster ride up one day- and am feeling grumpy this morning while looking at the futures markets. The doctor in the video says watch less news to keep the stress down. I guess that’s a good idea. I’ll Turn off Fox. ;-) )


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Last edited:
COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

CNBC's Santelli Said
In Order To Reduce The Economic Impact 'We Should Just Give Everyone The Corona"



Source: Business Insider

CNBC's Rick Santelli suggested everyone should get the novel coronavirus because the current panic is negatively impacting the economy. Santelli appeared on CNBC's "The Exchange," where he iterated he was "not a doctor" but made a comparison between the generic flu and the coronavirus that causes the disease known as COVID-19. —Joshua Potash

"All I know is, think about how the world would be if you tried to quarantine everybody because of the generic-type flu," Santelli said. "Now I'm not saying this is the generic-type flu, but maybe we'd be just better off if we gave it to everybody, and then in a month it would be over because the mortality rate of this probably isn't going to be any different if we did it that way than the long-term picture, but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global and domestic economies."

COVID-19 has flu-like symptoms including fever, cough and trouble breathing. Business Insider's Holly Secon broke down the differences between the novel coronavirus and the flu. In part she wrote: "'This virus is not SARS, it's not MERS, and it's not influenza,' [WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom] Ghebreyesus said in a press conference on Tuesday. 'It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.'

"The most crucial difference between the flu and the coronavirus is that the latter has been far deadlier. Whereas about 0.1% of people who get the flu die, the coronavirus' death rate is now at about 3.4%, based on the current numbers of cases and deaths...

Read more: https://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-host-everyone-should-get-coronavirus-to-save-economy-2020-3

###

Oh, sure. That's the solution.

Let's make sure everybody gets it, get it over with in a month, and then the markets will kick back up! Great idea!

 
Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Coronavirus cure for stocks not yet found
— don't rule out 50% of the market being wiped out


( Snip: )

"A recession is imminent, and it's OK,” Hercules Investment CEO James McDonald said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “A 30% correction sounds scary right, but the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallied to nearly 30% in just one year last year. If you look at a 35% to 45% trim from here, it sounds bad but it just takes us back first quarter 2016. Understand that the numbers are relative, it is a good time to anticipate a major pullback and then get back in the market.”

More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro...-of-the-market-being-wiped-out-155725587.html
 
Updated (As of 4pm EST March 6th) death rates by country using the # deaths / # cases method. Sourced data from worldometers.
Closed cases = deaths + recoveries. Keep in mind, recoveries have not been well reported in most countries.
DISCLAMER: lack of testing typically makes these death rates higher, because you aren't catching the mild cases. US also got hit in the worst possible place: nursing home. Their rate *should* fall as more people are tested


OVERALL is 3.4% (3462 deaths / 101878 cases). With 5.8% of closed cases ending in death
USA is 5.2% (14 deaths / 270 cases). With 48.3% of closed cases ending in death
China is 3.8% (3042 deaths / 80576 cases). With 5.3% of closed cases ending in death
S. Korea is 0.7% (43 deaths / 6593 cases). With 24.2% of closed cases ending in death
Iran is 2.6% (124 deaths / 4747 cases). With 12% of closed cases ending in death
Italy is 4.2% (197 deaths / 4636 cases). With 27.4% of closed cases ending in death

If the China numbers are true, this whole thing could be a non-factor in 2-4 months.
If the South Korea numbers are true, there are significantly more (~5x) people infected than have been found, but the death rate is significantly less (~0.7% instead of 3.4%). South Korea is testing A LOT of people, so they are either finding all the mind cases that no one else is even testing, or they have a lot of false positives... or they have a less deadly strain
 
Re: COVID-19, (was Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

0.1 to 1% would make sense. Like I mentioned..
k0nkuzh0n said:
If the South Korea numbers are true, there are significantly more (~5x) people infected than have been found, but the death rate is significantly less (~0.7% instead of 3.4%). South Korea is testing A LOT of people, so they are either finding all the mind cases that no one else is even testing, or they have a lot of false positives... or they have a less deadly strain
Click to expand...

But in order for that 0.1 to 1% to be true, what he said was wrong. He said for every case there is likely 2 or 3 cases going undetected due to mild symptoms. Math doesn't support that.

USA is currently at a 4.3% case fatality rate. With 19 deaths, that would mean you would have to have 1900 cases to get 1% or 19000 cases to get 0.1%.... we currently have 438 cases. so that would mean for every case, there is 4 to 44 undetected mild cases.

Also doesn't account for the deaths that are going undetected do to lack of testing.

He also said the only people who are really sick and go to the hospital are getting testing... that isn't accurate in the US. Testing isn't (wasnt?) wide spread.

If I had to guess, South Korea values are accurate. actual death rate is around 0.5 to 1%, and will go down to 0.1% or lower once we come up with an effective antiviral medication.
 
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