20 DEC - 24 DEC

[coolhand]

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It's a funny thing Chaplain, on the one hand I want to see the dollar slide for the obviousreason of increased"I" fund share price, but at the same time we seem to be inching closer to perceived disaster (as some in the media think).

Is this a case of "be careful what you ask for, you might get it?":shock:

 

[Guest]

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Coolhand, It seems that economic trainwrecks are inevitable doesn't it. However, I am finding that for one aspect of an economy to prosper, ultimately another suffers. Our efforts are to discern which are doing what, and fund accordingly. Wish I had known in 2000 - 2003 what I understand now. These efforts at market timing and trend riding and chart reading are all to know where to avoid potholes, and which is the next rising star. Ambivilent ambiguity.... . All that said, go I fund!

Peace and a prosperous new year!

 

[Guest]

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I have been riding the I fund (just 40%) wave for a little over two months (thank God for some really nice gains). But yesterday, I decided to pull back (20%), and load up on the expected dip in the S fund (now 60%), still currently 20% in C fund. I hope the I funds give us some more nice gains, especially for the folks jusy getting in now.

 

[smedlap]

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Coolhand, Chaplain and RetireRich. Any potential disasterwill beglobal.

Retirerich - smart move as I believe the S is as good as the I Fund.Those of us that have bedded in I fundare just working the currency advantage right now. Tom made anexcellent pointthat I picked up onin hismarket comments wherehe speculated he may have missed the I fund opportunity by 1 day. He has always been an advocate of the S fund. What he was saying to me is he sees the positive swings and he thought he may have traded into a wave, not an opportunity. Fact is, I thought about switching yesterday from the I to the S because of the spread created between the 2 funds in the past 5 trading days. I fund clearly recovered the lead and in my opinion - too far from S fund to be sustained. Yesterday was the time to buy the lead swing opportunity and then when S catches up to the I, change again. For me C is a good basic buy right now but nothing more. So I see funds trading in a narrow progressive range. The opportunity is not just riding the I or S stock funds but switchback opportunities (spreads) where one can double a gain. This will not last longas European traders will soon be off the ski slopes and will attempt to stem the dollar decline! Rotation at 100% is not for the faint of heart, it is hard core play! I do not advocate day trading to anyone unless in a rare positive uptrend market which I think we are in

I will also probably make my last play and transition to G fund hibernation at COB Friday 21 January and wait for a dip which Ihope will come with the FOMC sometime around 2,3,4 February. February ishistorically a slight loss month. Listen to the market analysts on Bloomberg - 8% next year. Thanks to this site and Tom, we did very, very well these last 2 months. I will go into withdrawal.

 

[puertorico]

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Will be time to S cacth up I-Fund ?

 

[puertorico]

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Maybe a correction i I-fund when s catch up .Thinking to get
out of I-Fund. I'M DISORIENTED SMedlap

 

[puertorico]

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I will stay put 30-c 50-s 20-i today and tomorrow.

 

[smedlap]

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Good play. I think the S and I are the better funds of the 3 stockright now and for the near future. The spread is closing. One can only play it at it's widest margins. I'm still 100% I and will stay here for the time.

 

[Guest]

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Smedlap, PuertoRico, Coolhand, I still think the I fund is the way to go. I would love to diversify a bit, but the single piece of news that seems to be stable is that the dollar continues to decline, along with at least stable I fund country economies head up a bit. The S fund seems to have more room to grow than the C, but for now I will stick in I and watch for signals.

Happy New Year.

 

[smedlap]

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My prayors are with you Chaplain, and for me as I will stick with I until I hit that speed bump or see it forming. :^

 

[Guest]

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smedlap
I think for once I made a really nice move jumping into the S fund (60%) on the dip yesterday. It looks like the S fund came roaring back today, and I still got some play in the I fund (20%), with the kicker in the C fund (20%). Don't know how long I will maintain this kind of exposure-today was also a good for my individual stocks too (overall). I think I will exhale sometime thisweek and move some into the G fund. I wont go completely out though.

Recent WSJ had article where two of the top market analyst totally disagee on the which way the market will go in 2005. Talk about confusion, and then there's Mark Hulbert's article about the PVR inidcator(sp) showing how overbought the market.

I want to be aggressive, but not greedy-especially if it leads to being caught in the market at an inopportune time.

 

[smedlap]

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You clearly made the "smart" play of the day and we all were watching. Kind of rewarding when one studies all the posts, takes some independent risk, makes an "independent"moveand is then - well rewarded. Fine, fine job my friend. Don't go to sleep now. This one is past you and now it's time to look for the next smart move to add further to the sock. But good job!!!