12%ayear's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Ben pushed rates to far and did not relinquish until the new home owner began screaming. His intention was to create pain and now he will administer relief to the 5% of the real estate market that is in deeper crisis than necessary. Mortgage rates are coming down and they will go lower and if you don't have cash you won't be a buyer this time around. The equity bull market has a long way to go yet - catch the wave.
 
I can still remember a high school Amer. History teacher briefly touching on the Fed's interest rate and showing a graph of how it has gone up and down over the years, and ranting about how logical it would be for them to get into a mode of more stable rates and to stop moving them so drastically up and down all the time. I don't have enough technical knowledge to know if that's even possible. But, the FED has put themselves into a bad situation, once again. Yes, interest rates should be lower, they should be at or close to the natural rate of interest somewhere around 3.25% BUT it is not as if, and I've typed this before here a few times, this is going to solve the problem that plagues the markets right now. The 3% or so who have problems related to sub-prime loans will fail just as badly even with rates a full basis point lower, which they will be by the time the FED is done. There will be some benefit from lower interest rates, but it doesn't touch the sub-prime problem and home foreclosure. IMO the FED should, as the old history teacher said, keep the prime rate more stable and stop letting it be influenced by short term economics of the moment. They should float the rate between 2.75 and 3.25, or pick your numbers, as needed. To hold it at 1% for a long period of time is just irresponsible and invites practices that are economically unsound as we have seen. To keep rates too high stomps down growth. Within my kitchen table analysis are real technical economic realities that I don't have the vocabulary for.

From Wayne Angel in 2004:

"Most of our post-World War II recessions were the result of monetary
expansion leading to an increase in inflation which gave the Federal
Reserve little choice -- tighten money sufficiently to restrain the growth
of the debt/credit expansion. Typically, the Fed encountered difficulty
restraining credit growth without producing a recession."

I'm simply saying that stability in the Prime would go a long way toward solving the problems encountered on both ends of the spectrum. If a dude can't buy a new house under current conditions, then maybe it should just be the case that he doesn't buy a house. If a business can't expand, then it can't expand, but at the very least it's REAL and we can know the true value of assets and liabilities without the bubbles created by wildly swinging monetary policy.
 
Reactive1 said:
If a dude can't buy a new house under current conditions, then maybe it should just be the case that he doesn't buy a house. If a business can't expand, then it can't expand, but at the very least it's REAL and we can know the true value of assets and liabilities without the bubbles created by wildly swinging monetary policy.
Click to expand...

If you're ever in central IL area - would love to have you over. Maybe someday a small group of us (the MB Crowd) will be in the same area; if it's anywhere near me I would gladly take everyone to a nice resturant, as I'm convinced we'd have a lot to talk about.
 
Steadygain,

I think you've got a great idea. Why don't we have a yearly conference or something like it? We can meet and get to know each other.

The Ebb Chart followers can go the Ebb presentation. We can go to the Tom and Griffin Show/presentation, etc. We can invite the TSP Board as speakers and anyone else that has any influence on our ability to conduct our business. We can let them know we aren't the cause of all ills with the TSP.

I like it, you should propose it to the message board members to see how much intrest there is.

Foghorn
 
Thanks for your optimism 12%. You and Griffin have done a lot keep my spirits up recently. I wish you guys well, but right now, I'm still hurting from the recent market and in bit of a funk...

Once I get my spirits back, I hope to be able to jump back in make a few bucks...:D:D:D

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Thanks for your optimism 12%. You and Griffin have done a lot keep my spirits up recently. I wish you guys well, but right now, I'm still hurting from the recent market and in bit of a funk...

Once I get my spirits back, I hope to be able to jump back in make a few bucks...:D:D:D

FS
Click to expand...
Now is the best time to make money. Love the small-caps ,earnings will do very well and skyrocket them. IMO this will be the year of the small-caps and the US DOLLAR.
 
12%ayear said:
Dow is down 50 points. IMO we will close up over 200 points today
Click to expand...

12%...you may be right. Had some glimmers of hope with JP Morgan and Indus. prod. not too low. Combine that with a breach of August lows (S&P nosediving at 1045am est...1367) possible FED intervention and options expiration, sounds like a recipe for a good bounce.

That being said, I am still looking to sell anything at or above 1420 ish.
 
The percentage of stocks on the NASDAQ Composite trading above their 200-day EMA touched 18.44% at the close yesterday. Which is on par with the oversold conditions in the NASDAQ during the July 2002 and October 2002 bottoms. The bottom is in. Any reason to sell is a good reason near a bottom.
 
wrong today!! Talkingheads are saying 20% more to the downside. Time to buy IMO BTW..NASDAQ is down about 17% since Oct.31th.
 
12%ayear said:
wrong today!! Talkingheads are saying 20% more to the downside. Time to buy IMO
Click to expand...

OK - I know this sounds terrible and of course I'm asking this on probably the most popular thread of all

BUT what does IMO mean? :confused:

and something close IHMO - or something with an H thrown in?
 
Steadygain said:
OK - I know this sounds terrible and of course I'm asking this on probably the most popular thread of all

BUT what does IMO mean? :confused:

and something close IHMO - or something with an H thrown in?
Click to expand...
the h means honest. LOL means laughing outloud ;)Rock on baby
 
This cost of the Iraq War is killing this country. Whoever wins the election has a full plate. This real estate bubble is just like March 2000 when the market or internet bubble bursted. Oil is another bubble ready to pop!! Why? Because if products are not bought the oil is not needed to transport the goods to stores and people stay home. Gold is another bloated pig. Everything goes in cycles. The Fed has to cut to the bare bone. Inflationary pressure is in the backseat. They need to cut yesterday. Greenspan would of cut already. Ben is too text driven, which is not a good tool to fight time. The US DOLLAR will not get killed because OSMs will have to do the same to support themselves.
 
Steadygain said:
OK - I know this sounds terrible and of course I'm asking this on probably the most popular thread of all

BUT what does IMO mean? :confused:

and something close IHMO - or something with an H thrown in?
Click to expand...
BRB – be right back
BIO – going for bio break (washroom break)
AFK – away from keyboard (I am gone for a few minutes)
BTW – by the way
KK – OK (commonly used by online gamers to acknowledge that a message has been received)
TTYL – talk to you later
BFN – bye for now
TTFN – ta-ta for now
CYA – see ya (or it could also be: cover your a*s)
CUL8R – see you later
IBTL – in before the lock (for when you post a message prior to the administrator locking the heated discussion thread)
IMHO – in my humble opinion
IMNSHO – in my not so humble opinion
FMV – fair market value (for selling items online)
LOL – laughing out loud
MT – mistell (commonly used by online gamers to say that they made a mistake and mistyped their last message)
NWT – new with tags (for selling items online)
NWOT – new without tags (for selling items online)
OOAK – one of a kind (for selling items online)
PMSL - P*ssing myself laughing (a common UK expression)
ROFL – rolling on floor laughing
ROFLMAO – rolling on floor laughing my a*s off
RTM – read the manual
RTFM – read the f***ing manual (to show frustration at someone's ignorance of basic knowledge)
GG – good game
THX - thanks
TX - thanks
TY - thank you
NP - no problem/you're welcome
PLZ - please
W/E - whatever
ASL – age / sex / location?
RL – real life
IRL – in real life
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
162
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker - Up 14% for November and Clinging to the S-fund
Replies
0
Views
327
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker - Buying the December Dips
Replies
0
Views
249
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
November Contest in Progress
Replies
3
Views
197
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up
Replies
0
Views
17
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top