12%ayear's Account Talk

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The market is way oversold. Bears are out in full force. Bad news is already in these numbers..look at the numbers. I have no problem and I will make all my money back and then some.I have been through this before.My huge problem was not listening to myself way back when I posted that we would sell-off with these bad loans. Now is not the time to panic and hide rather now is the time to enter and be fully postioned. We can easily pop 1000-1500 in one-two months. ;)
 
12%ayear said:
The market is way oversold. Bears are out in full force. Bad news is already in these numbers..look at the numbers. I have no problem and I will make all my money back and then some.I have been through this before.My huge problem was not listening to myself way back when I posted that we would sell-off with these bad loans. Now is not the time to panic and hide rather now is the time to enter and be fully postioned. We can easily pop 1000-1500 in one-two months. ;)
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we will have a great week coming up;)
 
SOOTHSAYING seems to be one of your God given gifts, I hope you're right. Your record speaks for its self, I think you're batting about an 800!:D
 
The long term A/D line structure had been very healthy leading up into this decline. This may be the biggest difference between now and the 2000 time frame as the internal foundation at that time was absent. Momentum measures are now consistent with previos bear market lows. Only when the fast stochastics turns back up will it help confirm price is moving back up on a longer term basis. This smells like the 1998 bear market to me - it has the sweet scent of bull manure everywhere. Insider Buy/Sell ratio is indicating continued accumulation by company insiders. Rydex Mutual Fund asset flows are at levels consistent with previous market bottoms. Fire in the hole. The strength or weakness of any rally from here will also help us understand the longer term perspective, keeping in mind again that our current technical conditions are not the same as when the 2000 longer term bear was initiated. I simply say turn the other cheek - be right and sit tight.
 
12%ayear said:
we will have a great week coming up;)
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you may be right...BUT...as of right now...11pm est the os markets are throwing up real bad...maybe the usa markets will turn this around but i have my doubts....my opinion is.. is that the markets stink and will continue to decline...just my opinion...nothing more..
 
For those in the I FUND, look for the USMs to take the lead off this nasty sell-off and take back some of the loses. imo....cut tomorrow....:) Not worried, I am back to 2006 levels. I have 22 years left and 19 years in the TSP.
 
I agree, let's not get too antsy here... take a longer term approach if the anxiety is building up.

And, avoid looking at the TSP balance during these times. It's paper until you liquidate your positions. So, don't panic, always take your towell with you! (reference: Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy)

Plus, at retirement, most of us will have our houses paid off, will be able to work if we need to, and have our Basic Benefit, Social Security (maybe?).

The day to day can really get to you if you let it. I rode the 2000-2003 down and back up, and will ride this one too. Don't want to miss the ride back up by getting off at the bottom.

The herd will jump to the lilly pad just as we bottom out, and will miss the rocket back up.

In there with ya, folks.

Peace,

Michael :)
 
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Hi, this is my TSP Account.
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I still have fond memories of the 1987 crash like event. I took off from work the next day and sat home with my fingers on the trigger anxiously debating whether I should sell or not. The market opened down another 300 points and that was the intraday low - so I pulled back and did not make a stupid mistake. It's all in how one handles the emotional quality of fight or flight. I prefer to get some out at the top not on the bottom. And it does help if you enjoy a certain level of pain to keep one anchored.
 
I am seriously thinking the same thing, but I fear BGI will FV the crap out of the I fund.

I fund has fell to far and is a bargain.
 
12%ayear said:
For those in the I FUND, look for the USMs to take the lead off this nasty sell-off and take back some of the loses. imo....cut tomorrow....:) Not worried, I am back to 2006 levels. I have 22 years left and 19 years in the TSP.
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posted above yesterday....
 
Apple tanking after-hours. NASDAQ is a friggin bargain. Asia should bounce, however;my concern is that OSMs may start cutting also causing the US DOLLAR to rally. Looking for a green day across the board in the USMs tomorrow. NASDAQ is down 24% since ..6-Nov-07..2,825.18
 
It would appear that the 4 year cycle has stretched out to six years for the first time since the 1932-1938 instance. We are fast approaching if not already there in some indexes the 20% minimum decline level that defines 85% of the declines from the crest to the trough of the 4 year cycle. If this is the case we now have the 9 month cycle in conjunction with the 4 year cycle that should provide great energy to the upside. I thought this is what happened after the lows of September '06. I'll take another just like it.
 
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