XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

I just got into the markets this morning. And I think I'm going to need to use my second IFT to get back out of them at COB today. I've decided to take Friend Steady's advice and go enjoy life next week. And while I'm camping I need my money to be safe so I'm not worrying about the markets. I could lose another big upturn but current markets can travel too fast to just walk away for a few days when a person is in 'capital preservation' mode.

As my wise brother bear Squale said on Gumby's thread: "If the Banks were responsible for the Great Depression and Banks are Doomed...Then why are we not in the (G) Fund. Are we in denial or something?"

Squale, I thought denial was a river in Egypt! :toung:

Anyway, I have 4 IFTs (my 2 and my husband's 2) so I'm going to move back to G. I just need to decide whether to request my IFT in the next 20 minutes or to wait until Monday morning to put the request in before we leave to go camping.

By the way, when I say "camping" I don't want to give anyone an exaggerated idea of my daring. I do have a friend who does "mountain man" stuff. But my idea of camping is to hitch the RV behind the pickup and bring my comfortable bed with me. I'm such a "pearls and lipstick" person that I have to have my blow dryer along. It's not exactly roughing it!!

Now where do I plug into that currant bush again? :laugh:

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I would not get out of this market even for a week - we can have a record breaking up day at any moment with all the liquidity available.

 

[Corepuncher]

I would not get out of this market even for a week - we can have a record breaking up day at any moment with all the liquidity available.

I have to agree with Birch...we have over 3 weeks before you can buy back again. So even if we go lower in the next 1-2 weeks, that low buying point may be lost because by Sept. 1st we could be back up again.

I suggest not moving 100 out. Today is showing exceptional strength. I think todays actions will induce more short covering in coming days.

EDIT: I see you have more IFT's than me. I have to wait till Sep. so wil be careful when selling.

 

[Guest2]

Lady, its all about risk tolerance baby. I was being a bit sarcastic when I
asked, why are we not in the (G) Fund. If your tolerance can allow you to
leave something in stocks (even a small amount), I agree with Birch. Its
understood that you have to be even more careful then the non retirees.
If your away and feel more comfortable putting it back into the (G), then
by all means do so. If you miss an upswing for 3 weeks, it won't hurt as
bad as losing too much and worrying about it while away. :worried:

 

[luv2read]

How about a mix similar to L Income for CP with a bit of risk my friend? Just weight it a bit more to the G side for comfort.

 

[Steadygain]

Lady,
Let's add to the peer pressure.

Obviously we're anxious for you to do the right thing.

The major event I've been waiting for is the "leveling out"

We had a huge downward turn this year, mixed with occasional "mini rallies" - but they all fizzled and the down trend continued.

If you ignore all the news related to the "Banks... and everything else" and simply look at the Markets...

We now have a significant "leveling out" for over a month - following a prolonged downward trend. A closer look shows this gaining strength - so strickly from a Market Perspective things continue to look very good.

I'm not saying this to get into a Bear - Bull Market argument, and however we define the past 8 months makes little difference. But usually a significant upward trend follows a significant downward trend after a "leveling off" period. In that sense now would look like the best time to be fully invested.

Whatever you do - be at peace with it and don't give it another thought over the next week.

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm back from my vacation, a much needed rest. Lots of tall pine trees, orange limestone spires and breathtaking sunsets!

While I was gone it looks like the markets continued their strange ways. I tried to get a reading from some folks "in the know" last night when I returned. And they are as puzzled as I am! One person reminded me that in a recovery S Fund always recovers first. But he is one of the same people who were telling me that this recovery was going to be different because of current economic issues, so the S&P was where to be! :blink: And this week S Fund broke above its 200 day simple moving average! :laugh:

Since the only thing I DO know for sure is what the simple moving averages are doing:

G Fund is at its 14 day SMA, 0.1% above its 28 day SMA, 0.2% above its 50 day SMA, 0.5% above its 100 day SMA, 0.8% above its 150 day SMA, and 1.1% above its 200 day SMA.
F Fund is at its 14 day SMA, 0.2% above its 28 day SMA, 0.3% above its 50 day SMA, 0.2% above its 100 day SMA, 0.1% below its 150 day SMA, and 0.1% below its 200 day SMA.
C Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day SMA, 1.2% above its 28 day SMA, 2.1% above its 50 day SMA, 1.7% below its 100 day SMA, 2.9% below its 150 day SMA, and 2.7% below its 200 day SMA.
S Fund is 0.9% above its 14 day SMA, 2.2% above its 28 day SMA, 3.7% above its 50 day SMA, 0.2% below its 100 day SMA, at its 150 day SMA, and 0.8% above its 200 day SMA.
I Fund is 1.2% below its 14 day SMA, 2.6% below its 28 day SMA, 3.2% below its 50 day SMA, 8.3% below its 100 day SMA, 9.8% below its 150 day SMA, and 9.3% below its 200 day SMA.

I'm 80% G, 15% C and 5% S, and I wish the last two numbers were reversed! But I'll keep that allocation at least through the weekend while I catch up on all the news from everywhere.

I missed you all while I was gone. Just glancing through, it looks like I missed some real chuckles. Alevin, what a gem you are! Thanks for the grins! Si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Apologies in advance for the repeated information. But I added more data to my regular mix so I needed to get it in a different form to be able to absorb it. And I thought maybe others might like to see this format too. Please let me know if this works better for anyone else.

G Fund: 14 day SMA +0.0%; 28 day SMA +0.1%; 50 day SMA +0.2%; 100 day SMA +0.5%; 150 day SMA +0.8%; 200 day SMA +1.1%

F Fund: 14 day SMA +0.0%; 28 day SMA + 0.2%; 50 day SMA +0.3%; 100 day SMA +0.2%; 150 day SMA -0.1%; 200 day SMA - 0.1%

C Fund: 14 day SMA -0.1%; 28 day SMA + 1.2%; 50 day SMA +2.1%; 100 day SMA -1.7%; 150 day SMA - 2.9%; 200 day SMA - 2.7%

S Fund: 14 day SMA +0.9%; 28 day SMA +2.2%; 50 day SMA +3.7%; 100 day SMA - 0.2%; 150 day SMA +0.0%; 200 day SMA +0.8%

I Fund: 14 day SMA - 1.2%; 28 day SMA - 2.6%; 50 day SMA - 3.2%; 100 day SMA - 8.3%; 150 day SMA - 9.8%; 200 day SMA - 9.3%

Have a good weekend, everyone, and let's be careful out there!

Lady

 

[luv2read]

Thanks! Have a good weekend.

 

[XL-entLady]

So here is the third version of the data table. Data has been updated with the latest prices and so is slightly different from the previous two versions.

The comma's are placeholders to make the table space correctly when imported to the MB. The explanation I've included is probably way too simplistic for the vast majority of you, but I wanted to make it readily apparent to even the most financially unsophisticated who might see it.

So now I need your input. Which of the three versions is the most user friendly in your opinion? Would adding colors in some manner help, or given the differences in monitors, would it not be of assistance? Any other suggestions? Or is the data of interest to any of you? For example, say, weekly on a Friday morning? Please PM me and let me know, and include any suggestions you may have.

If the data doesn't work for anyone else I'll continue to track it for my own use but won't clutter the MB with its posting. TIA for any comments!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
14 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
28 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.2%,,,,+0.5%,,,,,+2.5%,,,,+3.8%,,,,-3.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.5%,,,+0.4%,,,,-1.3%,,,,,-0.1%,,,,-9.1%
150 day SMA: ,,+0.8%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.4%,,,,,+0.1%,,,-10.6%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.3%,,,,,+0.9%,,,-10.0%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on my own records and simplified by being recorded only once a week. For example, the 50 day SMA consists of adding up the price for the last 7 weeks (49 days) and then dividing by 7. The resulting number is compared with the latest share price available. If the latest share price is less than the average share price for that timeframe, the SMA is a negative number. If the latest share price is greater than the average share price for that timeframe, the SMA is a positive number. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[XL-entLady]

Corepuncher has already pointed out some excellent refinements. (We KNEW he is a wizard at these things!) As a result, updated information will be coming out soon. Thanks, CP!

(But right now it's time for yoga ....)

 

[XL-entLady]

The data below is the latest version of what has become very much a “work in progress” so please bear with me! CP pointed out an error in my earlier formulas that resulted in the data being correct but for a shorter period of time than what was indicated on the Y Axis label. Oops!

And now it’s confession time. I know forensic accounting; it’s part of my job. Give me a balance sheet or a cash flow statement and I’m all over it. BUT my knowledge of the financial markets is self-taught only and there are black holes there that I’m still filling in. When I created my spreadsheets many years ago I used calendar days rather than trading days and I never caught the error. :embarrest::embarrest: I'm so embarrassed!

SO …. The data below is now based on the proper amount of trading days and the Y Axis label is now correct. The commas are placeholders to make the table space itself correctly when imported to the MB.

And repeating my recent questions, would adding colors in some manner help to grab the data visually? Or given the differences in monitors, would that not be advisable? Any other suggestions? Or is the data of interest to any of you? For example, say, weekly on a Friday morning? Please PM me and let me know, and please include any suggestions you may have.

If the data doesn't work for anyone else I'll continue to track it for my own use but won't clutter the MB with its posting. TIA for any suggestions!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
20 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.4%,,,,+0.7%,,,,,+1.1%,,,,+2.0%,,,,-5.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.7%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.5%,,,,,-0.2%,,,,-10.6%
150 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.1%,,,,-2.2%,,,,,+1.0%,,,-10.0%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.5%,,,+0.5%,,,,-4.0%,,,,,-0.2%,,,-11.8%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on my own records and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[Corepuncher]

I personally like color. You could keep the values BLACK if < 1% either way, then red for more than 1% negative, and green for > 1% positive?? (also bolded the green to show up better below...)

Just one idea!

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,+0.0%,,,,+0.2%,,,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-1.6%
20 day SMA: ,,+0.1%,,,,+0.4%,,,,,+1.6%,,,,+2.3%,,,,-3.2%
50 day SMA: ,,+0.4%,,,,+0.7%,,,,,+1.1%,,,,+2.0%,,,,-5.9%
100 day SMA: ,,+0.7%,,,+0.2%,,,,-2.5%,,,,,-0.2%,,,,-10.6%
150 day SMA: ,,+1.1%,,,+0.1%,,,,-2.2%,,,,,+1.0%,,,-10.0%
200 day SMA: ,,+1.5%,,,+0.5%,,,,-4.0%,,,,,-0.2%,,,-11.8%

 

[XL-entLady]

Many years ago - maybe eight or ten - I was talking to the CFO of a very successful company. I had just come to the realization that 'buy and hold' wasn't working for me. I had been 100% C Fund that year and C had lost about 10% at the same time that F Fund was gaining 10%. (Thats a 20% swing!) I mentioned to the CFO that I was going to have to start managing my retirement account more actively and he shared the philosophy he used to manage his personal holdings.

He said he wasn't good at blackjack and he always lost money playing the tables in Vegas. And he likened playing the markets to playing the tables. He said it worked for a few lucky and intuitive folks but not for him. Then he said, "When I'm dealing with my money, I don't play the markets; I pick the trends!"

I decided if it was good enough for him then I'd better pay attention. And that's why I pay so much attention to moving averages in the market. For what it's worth.

And by the way, I've decided to reallocate my account to 82% G, 3% F, 5% C and 10% S.

 

[Guest2]

Lets see,,,,,Luck,,,,Trend,,,,Luck,,,,Trend,,,,,Luck,,,,,Trend.

I'll take "trend" ! I'm All - IN ! Let it ride ! Shoot the goose ! :toung:

 

[mamikin]

Lady,

I find your postings to be informative and helpful. I like Corepuncher's suggestion to use color - green and red to emphasize losses and gains. I have noticed that you appear to be an astute investor and admire your modesty.

Many years ago - maybe eight or ten - I was talking to the CFO of a very successful company. I had just come to the realization that 'buy and hold' wasn't working for me. I had been 100% C Fund that year and C had lost about 10% at the same time that F Fund was gaining 10%. (Thats a 20% swing!) I mentioned to the CFO that I was going to have to start managing my retirement account more actively and he shared the philosophy he used to manage his personal holdings.

He said he wasn't good at blackjack and he always lost money playing the tables in Vegas. And he likened playing the markets to playing the tables. He said it worked for a few lucky and intuitive folks but not for him. Then he said, "When I'm dealing with my money, I don't play the markets; I pick the trends!"

I decided if it was good enough for him then I'd better pay attention. And that's why I pay so much attention to moving averages in the market. For what it's worth.

And by the way, I've decided to reallocate my account to 82% G, 3% F, 5% C and 10% S.

 

[Corepuncher]

I like you too XL-entLady

 

[XL-entLady]

Oh gosh, you guys say the nicest things! :embarrest:

 

[XL-entLady]

My 'ear to the ground' is hearing almost nothing but bad. Everyone is telling me the bottom isn't in yet. So I'm moving again, to 92% G, 3% F and 5% S. And I'm probably going to be sorry about the S! :cheesy:

One small note. I did talk to one jaded soul yesterday who told me to look for a market move upward right after the Republican convention is over because he thinks that McCain is smelling blood in the water (his words - he's a shark!), and the ruling party thinks they might be able to pull this one out if they can show a "recovering" economy between now and November.

For what it's worth,

Lady

 

[Guest2]

My 'ear to the ground' is hearing almost nothing but bad. Everyone is telling me the bottom isn't in yet. So I'm moving again, to 92% G, 3% F and 5% S. And I'm probably going to be sorry about the S! :cheesy:

One small note. I did talk to one jaded soul yesterday who told me to look for a market move upward right after the Republican convention is over because he thinks that McCain is smelling blood in the water (his words - he's a shark!), and the ruling party thinks they might be able to pull this one out if they can show a "recovering" economy between now and November.

For what it's worth,

Lady

Lady, I understand your wanting to keep something in the (S) Fund. Its
taken the lead, time and time again after dips. Down is not straight, maybe
you'll catch a little $somet'n-some'tn$ and pull the trigger then.
Anyway, Good Luck and Watch Closely !