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XL-entLady's Account Talk
- Thread starter XL-entLady
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XL-entLady
Well-known member
Yep, Gumby, my gut tells me we have a short run up and then back down. I just wish I had a feel for how short the run will be. TRIX and StochRSI help me to decide direction with my ETF's, but I need a crystal ball indicator to deal with the lag time between IFT request and action in my TSP accounts!
Mornin', Brother Bear! The last time I bailed to the G Garage, the markets were smelling so bad that I didn't leave anything in my accounts to <1% IFT with. Woulda, shoulda, coulda!
When will I ever learn to keep my emotions out of my trading! :embarrest: :toung:Lady
Yep, Gumby, my gut tells me we have a short run up and then back down. I just wish I had a feel for how short the run will be. TRIX and StochRSI help me to decide direction with my ETF's, but I need a crystal ball indicator to deal with the lag time between IFT request and action in my TSP accounts!
Mornin', Brother Bear! The last time I bailed to the G Garage, the markets were smelling so bad that I didn't leave anything in my accounts to <1% IFT with. Woulda, shoulda, coulda!
Lady
Past moves (look back) will make you feel better about having a minimum
of 1% in the 3 risk funds, maybe a percent or two more in the (F) to offset
a portion of possible losses. But being so close to the end of the month
makes a big difference. Using one of your 2 unlimited moves to bail would
hurt. So if you recently bailed to the (G), you have but 3 trading days
before freedom arrives and you can focus on a better entry point. Look
forward, not back. Whats done is done. You can't rely on Technicals alone
and emotions will always play a part of your moves, at least, they do for
me. Even though I try so hard to keep them in check. Your "woulda, coulda,
shoulda" feelings will undoubtedly come again. Go with your gut and all
the knowledge you've accumulated, it'll help you be more right then wrong
I'm bailing to the (G) myself with 3 trading days left in February. In March
I'm going to try and have patience before comiting to a better entry point.
I just can't believe the market will rebound before March. We're below 760
again in the S&P, I believe that means something (negative). Good Luck.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
May be time to move a chunk out of the Garage. 
I've been watching Coolhand's Seven Sentinels signals and doing some serious studying of index ETFs. Everything seems to be lining up for a pop upwards that is strong enough that even TSP'ers can play it.
Nothing long-term. I don't think we're going to get a long upwards trend here. :worried: But if things are still lined up correctly tomorrow morning, I'm going to move some to C and S!
Lady
I've been watching Coolhand's Seven Sentinels signals and doing some serious studying of index ETFs. Everything seems to be lining up for a pop upwards that is strong enough that even TSP'ers can play it. Nothing long-term. I don't think we're going to get a long upwards trend here. :worried: But if things are still lined up correctly tomorrow morning, I'm going to move some to C and S!
Lady
May be time to move a chunk out of the Garage. I've been watching Coolhand's Seven Sentinels signals and doing some serious studying of index ETFs. Everything seems to be lining up for a pop upwards that is strong enough that even TSP'ers can play it.
Nothing long-term. I don't think we're going to get a long upwards trend here. :worried: But if things are still lined up correctly tomorrow morning, I'm going to move some to C and S!
Lady
I just gave Mojo's thread a peek and saw some concern. But I'm in for
tomarrow and we'll see what it brings. There's a lot of positive technicals
being seen. Hope'n & Wish'n (warwick reference, i think?)
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Going from 100% G to 75 G, 12 C, 13 S tomorrow. Then I'll be watching Coolhand's SS signals every day until I can head back to the garage. 
Lady
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
One of Coolhand's 7 SS signals is moving off the buy signal today. I'm taking a little off the table. Going from 75G, 12C, 13S to 85G, 1F, 6C, 7S, 1I COB today.
Lady
Lady
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks for pointing his system out Lady and nice going on your Gain.
Best of luck (which is always part of the equation)
Show-me
Well-known member
Or TZA beings that TNA is approaching resistance at the 20dma.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
I agree, Show-me, I have a tight trailing stop on my TNA right now and a limit order in for TZA.
GL to us all! (And my very very best to your son!
)Lady
Uptrend
Well-known member
The SS buy signal stays in effect until all 7 show a sell signal. Since this has not occurred, the buy signal is still in effect. This system is a one mans traders system that was shared from Traders Talk. You will notice that the emas and bollinger band statistics are set to reflect fairly quick response conditions; ie 13 or 6 ema
The main idea is to track market breadth and buying or selling pressure. You can also look at the $nasi and $nysi for a longer view. You can view these in Stockcharts. Change the line type to a histogram. Green the market is rising and red the market is falling. You can also see the market strength ie -1000 to +1000. Look at the December 2008 rally for example. It was rising and gaining strength.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Uptrend, my thanks for the analytical information. And I'm honored by your visit to my home!
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Lady,
I read the explanation that Uptrend gave you for this post. I am still confused and perhaps you can help. The other day I copied and opened a link regarding the SS indicators. Do you have to open the indicators on an individual basis, or is there a better link to see the daily or intraday progress? Where are you looking at the changes in the signals. Can you post the link, if any? Thanks in advance!
I read the explanation that Uptrend gave you for this post. I am still confused and perhaps you can help. The other day I copied and opened a link regarding the SS indicators. Do you have to open the indicators on an individual basis, or is there a better link to see the daily or intraday progress? Where are you looking at the changes in the signals. Can you post the link, if any? Thanks in advance!
XL-entLady
Well-known member
I'm a newbie to the signals myself, but I think they are fairly straight-forward with Uptrend's clarification. Here's how you put it together:
The signals are at http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=98276</p>
When you go to the site it looks like an old post, but the seven charts within the post are actually updated to the most current information. The first two charts are basically real-time and the other five charts are always as of COB the last market day, I think.
The rules for the system are found a couple of posts below the charts, but here they are for your convenience:
"Okay, now the rules:
1. When all seven are in buy mode simultaneously following positive divergency patterns (higher reading in the 6 day EMA's of NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, and NYHL--vs. new lows hit in SPX) -- This constitutes a Seven Sentinels Buy Signal. {This occurred Weds 11-26, for example. Please notice the massive positive divergence between the October 9 lows and the November 20 lower lows on SPX- where virtually every momentum measure on Earth registered a positive divergence on the "retest"}
2. When all seven are in sell mode simultaneously following negative divergency patterns (lower reading in the 6 day EMA's of NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, and NYHL vs. new highs hit in SPX) -- This constitutes a Seven Sentinels Sell Signal. {This occurred many times in 2008}
3. A signal defines the CONTEXT of the market for my trading purposes, and stays in effect until the opposite signal is given. Occasionally signals only last a few days before being reversed, but more often they last weeks or even months- as the market tends to trend in the direction indicated. While the market is in SSBS mode, I may for example, buy and hold, or trade long positions using weakness to take on positions and strength to exit, or a combination of both, or any other appropriate bullish trading strategies. What I do NOT do during an SSBS period is try to countertrend by shorting strength or any other such counter trend strategy. And while in SSSS mode, I may for example, short and hold, or trade short positions using strength to take on positions and weakness to exit, or a combination of both, or any other appropriate bearish trading strategies. What I do NOT do during an SSSS period is try to countertrend by buying weakness or any other such counter trend strategy.
4. The seven sentinels each have, individually, a buy mode and a sell mode- and as explained above, it is the alignment of all seven under specific conditions that constitutes a signal and defines for me the context or prevailing trend of the market. Here are the individual buy/sell triggers:
TRINQ and TRIN: Daily reading below 13 Day EMA is buy mode, reading above 13 Day EMA is sell mode.
For NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, NYHL, daily reading above 6 Day EMA is buy mode, and reading below same is sell mode.
For BPCOMPQ, reading within the Bollinger Band following reading below constitutes buy mode, as do readings above and outside of BB following reading within the band. Put another way, either positive crossing constitutes buy mode. Reading within the Bollinger Band following reading above constitutes sell mode, as do readings below and outside of BB following reading within the band. Put another way, either negative crossing constitutes sell mode. It stays in buy mode or in sell mode until it recrosses in the opposite direction. "
So cutting to the chase, a buy signal is that the first two charts have to be below their moving average and the next four charts have to be above their moving average, and for the last chart a cross of a bollinger band line upwards is buy. And thanks to Uptrend's clarification, now I know that all seven have to shift before there is a change in the signal.
Did that help? Please let me know if I didn't explain clearly and I'll try again.
Lady
coolhand
Well-known member
Thanks for the clarifications Lady. Here is a new post by the author showing the last 6 buy and sell signals for the SS. We can see here that it's not a day trading system and that volatility should continue to be expected.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=103228
I would add though, that I'm concerned about how the market trades this week. I suspect it will be down. If we were one week closer to April I'd feel more comfortable about selling, but we've got more than 2 weeks to go and a lot can happen in that time.
I'm still thinking about it. :blink:
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=103228
I would add though, that I'm concerned about how the market trades this week. I suspect it will be down. If we were one week closer to April I'd feel more comfortable about selling, but we've got more than 2 weeks to go and a lot can happen in that time.
I'm still thinking about it. :blink:
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