XL-entLady's Account Talk

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We're already losing the bounce. And I've got to be away from the computer now for a few hours. :mad: I just changed real acct to 63 G, 30 F, 2 C, 3 S, 2 I, but I wish I could watch the markets for another hour before deciding!

Lady
 
The good news is that yesterday I made a month's worth of G fund pennies on my one day move into and out of the markets. :) The bad news is that I'm stuck with only Squale's <1% moves for the rest of the month. Darned IFT restrictions! :mad:

And more possible bad news if you think Slope of Hope's Tim Knight knows what he's talking about. (For members of Tom's other world, please forgive the double post.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XL-entLady
"Yesterday Tim Knight's "Slope of Hope" video mentioned that Elliott Wave International has pointed out that during this entire bear market so far the Dow has never closed below 8000 more than one day at a time. So if it does so in this test, then that will be a first and we'd better perk up. Tim asserts that if it happens, that will be the catalyst for the plunge and then the next bear rally.

http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/02/th...of_sub8000.htm"


So Slope of Hope now notes that we've done it:

"They tried..........God knows they tried, but they lost. We got our sub-8,000 close. Two days in a row. First time in over five years! "

And also notes a previously mentioned Elliott Wave belief that we're going down:

"As most of you know, I really enjoy the work of the folks at Elliott Wave Intl., and lately they've been firmly behind their belief that the market is in the early throes of its final wave 5 downward before higher-degree wave 1 down is complete. In other words, the game plan is to soon plunge below last year's lows before the market is finally in a position to enjoy a sustained, multi-month countertrend rally."

Everybody got their SUBA gear on? 'Cause Tim Knight says we're headed for a dive! :o


Lady
 
Make it work for you Lady. The Dow is under 8000 again. Something
tells me that there's a few more pennies out there (Through Tuesday).
Even if today ends mixed. I feel it will. I'm hoping the House Votes
today and gives investors reason to hope for a Friday Vote in the
Senate (pork or no pork). Take profit on any move up. I like to wait
at least 2 days when dealing with <1%. This also holds true for any
downward move. I'll wait two days and buy cheaper. I don't believe
the market wants to go much lower. Maybe alittle,,,,but not much. :)
 
XL-entLady said:
Everybody got their SUBA gear on? 'Cause Tim Knight says we're headed for a dive! :o

Lady
Click to expand...

That's what I'm counting on - and will hold on that. :sick::worried:
THANKS SO much for your input Lady.

This week is too late - so will stay put and wait for a better chance.

I talked with Sarah last night - my daughter in South Korea. She's been working through the Mennonite Central Committee and has really gained a lot in her 7 months. It's been a strange situation with the organization itself however and she has longed to break from them and work directly for the SCHOOL. Well she GOT HER WISH and will stay at least another year working directly for them.

It's the best news we could possibly get - because we knew she longed for that - to give at least another year and to work directly for the people she's committed her life to. So I'm on top of the world.

Here's hoping for a 1 1/2 day - a new record :)
 
Squale, I'm thinking I should only have left 1% in CSI. The down days in equities might erase all my up day in F Fund. :worried:

Lady
 
Have you ever played with this asset allocation calculator? Kind of interesting!

http://www.finance.cch.com/sohoApplets/AssetAllocator.html

BTW, I stuck everything in G fund today until the dust settles, since I'm out of IFTs for the month. So I've been spending a lot of time in Tom's other world, finding ETFs. I'm actually being able to increase my portfolio doing something, instead of watching my TSP account gather dust. :toung:

Lady
 
Thought for the day from OptionsXpress dated yesterday.

Be On The Lookout With Your Wish List

"The market is blowing through key support levels on all major indexes; I watched the most recent level 787 get cut on the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 778.94 0.00 0.00%) into the close. With the Stimulus plan now signed and the continued global economies souring, Gold does not look so bad. I could talk about the latest earnings, Wal-Mart (WMT: 50.45 0.00 0.00%) better than expected, but at this time people really do not care. This leads me to my final point ( I know most of you are saying “he has a point”), when the general market is so depressing and this news carries no more public interest, that is when I start looking. This happened after 1974, a very similar market cycle, I think this is how we will see this market make some interesting turns, when you hear nothing but a whimper at the darkest hour, that is when you grab your wish list and with disciplined plan, methodically and prudently execute that plan. I do not see this happening in the near future but I am on the lookout. "

http://www.dailymarkets.com/options/2009/02/19/be-on-the-lookout-with-your-wish-list/

Lady
 
Thursday, February 19, 2009

Mild Selloff After Sharp Drop Sets Up S&P For A Bounce


"In the past I’ve found that weak bounces after strong selloffs have had bearish short-term implications. Wednesday’s action just missed the weak bounce as the S&P finished marginally lower. So tonight I looked at S&P performance following a sharp drop and then a marginally lower day. Below I show the 5-day return across a spectrum of possible % declines between 0 and X%.

(click to enlarge)


Rather than the bearish results found when the market undergoes a weak bounce, we see here that limited additional selling carries a bullish expectation over the following week. The edge remains fairly consistent regardless the level of decline between 0% and 1%."
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/
 
I've used my MB tracker IFTs for the month, but in real life I have one more set because I manage both my and my husband's TSP accounts. And I'm thinking very seriously about going to C Fund in my real world account at COB today if it keeps looking like today will be down. My only hesitation is thinking of being on Tums all weekend long because of the trade! :laugh:

If I do the IFT I won't enter it into the tracker.

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
I've used my MB tracker IFTs for the month, but in real life I have one more set because I manage both my and my husband's TSP accounts. And I'm thinking very seriously about going to C Fund in my real world account at COB today if it keeps looking like today will be down. My only hesitation is thinking of being on Tums all weekend long because of the trade! :laugh:

If I do the IFT I won't enter it into the tracker.

Lady
Click to expand...
Real world account = 70% G, 30% C @ COB today. And I'm going to make pasta sauce all weekend! :nuts:

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
Thought for the day from OptionsXpress dated yesterday.

Be On The Lookout With Your Wish List

"The market is blowing through key support levels on all major indexes; I watched the most recent level 787 get cut on the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 778.94 0.00 0.00%) into the close. With the Stimulus plan now signed and the continued global economies souring, Gold does not look so bad. I could talk about the latest earnings, Wal-Mart (WMT: 50.45 0.00 0.00%) better than expected, but at this time people really do not care. This leads me to my final point ( I know most of you are saying “he has a point”), when the general market is so depressing and this news carries no more public interest, that is when I start looking. This happened after 1974, a very similar market cycle, I think this is how we will see this market make some interesting turns, when you hear nothing but a whimper at the darkest hour, that is when you grab your wish list and with disciplined plan, methodically and prudently execute that plan. I do not see this happening in the near future but I am on the lookout. "

http://www.dailymarkets.com/options/2009/02/19/be-on-the-lookout-with-your-wish-list/

Lady
Click to expand...

Thanks for sharing these resources. I plan to follow you to Tom's etf site also.--Ron
 
XL-entLady said:
Thought for the day from OptionsXpress dated yesterday.

Be On The Lookout With Your Wish List

"when the general market is so depressing and this news carries no more public interest, that is when I start looking. This happened after 1974, a very similar market cycle, I think this is how we will see this market make some interesting turns, when you hear nothing but a whimper at the darkest hour, that is when you grab your wish list and with disciplined plan, methodically and prudently execute that plan. I do not see this happening in the near future but I am on the lookout. "

http://www.dailymarkets.com/options/2009/02/19/be-on-the-lookout-with-your-wish-list/

Lady
Click to expand...

Thanks Lady, I didn't know OptX was posting commentary anywhere outside their site. Interestingly, over the past 35 years since early 70's, it's the 74-76 period that has been capturing my attention as most similar chart pattern. Also more similar economic circumstances. Not exactly the same, no, but... I'm still refining my wish list.
 
Last edited:
Hi Allie! That's right, you ended up using OptX didn't you. Let us know what you think, okay? Good luck on the wish list!

And Ron, I'll look forward to visiting with you on the new site! :)

Lady
 
That bold guy looks alittle like me, minus my mustache. :nuts:

Long Term Investors (3) Years out or more are looking at
a pretty good run upwards. But I can't get my hands
around the thrust upward at +50% to 9000. I guess it
could happen, but not soon enough for me or my portfolio. :confused:
 
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