Wiff007's Account Talk

[Wiff007]

Hello,


I am new to this forum and website and currently have over 11 years in federal service and will not be retiring for at least another 20+ years and that is at the minimum retirement age I can retire at. I joined this site for some advice and just to see how it works with help in investing. Currently 100% of my money is in the G fund because I lost a little bit back in December when the market tanked like 5 days in a row, however I pulled my money out of the risker funds a bit early and missed those two days of big gains that would have helped to put some of my losses back in my pocket.


Can you all help me with some questions I have?


1. How does the buy low, sell high method work with TSP? Like today the market is not doing so well, so does that mean I should do an interfund transfer and move a large part of my money into the C fund? Then when the market has a day of lower gains move it all back to the G fund? Or should I disperse my money about. ( I have been reading about Dave Ramsey and his recommendations/ was going to try his strategy out.)

2. I wish I can have a 15/20% rate of return for a year with TSP, what is the best strategy for getting to that?

3. I am not a fan of the L funds, however I think I might have been lucky to make a 3% rate of return for last year (2014) and the L fund I would be associated with I think has made 5 or 6 % which is still better than what I am doing on my own. What is everyone opinions on these?


Thanks for the advice, and hope everyone has a Happy New Year.

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Forum Wiff007! The answers to your questions are here but everyone has their own opinion. Check out the Auto Tracker and you will see that it can be done. Plenty of good advise here.
Best of luck with your investments.
Norman

 

[pmaloney]

Hi, I am not an expert but you can get really good advise on this forum. I retired about a little over a year and a half ago. I made out well but my biggest mistake was being way to conservative especially in my first ten years. Aside from paying attention to the forum posts I would suggest trying the premium services one at a time to see which one you like best.

Best of luck.

 

[Wiff007]

So is it good to mirror your movement to the people in the autotracker who have made the big gains on here?

 

[felixthecat]

Hello,


I am new to this forum and website and currently have over 11 years in federal service and will not be retiring for at least another 20+ years and that is at the minimum retirement age I can retire at. I joined this site for some advice and just to see how it works with help in investing. Currently 100% of my money is in the G fund because I lost a little bit back in December when the market tanked like 5 days in a row, however I pulled my money out of the risker funds a bit early and missed those two days of big gains that would have helped to put some of my losses back in my pocket.


Can you all help me with some questions I have?


1. How does the buy low, sell high method work with TSP? Like today the market is not doing so well, so does that mean I should do an interfund transfer and move a large part of my money into the C fund? Then when the market has a day of lower gains move it all back to the G fund? Or should I disperse my money about. ( I have been reading about Dave Ramsey and his recommendations/ was going to try his strategy out.)

2. I wish I can have a 15/20% rate of return for a year with TSP, what is the best strategy for getting to that?

3. I am not a fan of the L funds, however I think I might have been lucky to make a 3% rate of return for last year (2014) and the L fund I would be associated with I think has made 5 or 6 % which is still better than what I am doing on my own. What is everyone opinions on these?


Thanks for the advice, and hope everyone has a Happy New Year.

Wiff007,

I would normally say if you have that much time left, you should just be in the market and let time be on your side. The only caveat, don't ride Bear Markets down. You could loose too much ( much better to buy low and sell high)...you can always put a cap on your loss and move to safety before getting in too deep in the red. Now, how to spot a Bear Market....read and follow the leaders. They will be out if this market if there is even a hint of the smell of BEAR.

A 15 to 20 percent return may be a little hard going forward. Don't think for a minute that this Bulll run over the past several years is normal. It is not. It was a great run...now the market may taketh away this year. Be careful. In this early 2015...L Funds would limit the losses based on your years of retirement. You could also go with a mix of F and some C/S if you want to diversify some. G fund is truly to be in if we run for cover in a bad Market...especially if the F fund is not doing good. I consider it only a temporary safety net. I just don't see these 15-20 percent returns in the cards this year.

For me...I'm watching my money closely. If you don't have the time to watch your money. Better to be in the L Funds.

The market is ripe for a fall...the smart money is bailing. This year will be tough to get the gains you have seen in the past. Don't expect those type of returns. :worried:

 

[Wiff007]

Wiff007,

I would normally say if you have that much time left, you should just be in the market and let time be on your side. The only caveat, don't ride Bear Markets down. You could loose too much ( much better to buy low and sell high)...you can always put a cap on your loss and move to safety before getting in too deep in the red. Now, how to spot a Bear Market....read and follow the leaders. They will be out if this market if there is even a hint of the smell of BEAR.

A 15 to 20 percent return may be a little hard going forward. Don't think for a minute that this Bulll run over the past several years is normal. It is not. It was a great run...now the market may taketh away this year. Be careful. In this early 2015...L Funds would limit the losses based on your years of retirement. You could also go with a mix of F and some C/S if you want to diversify some. G fund is truly to be in if we run for cover in a bad Market...especially if the F fund is not doing good. I consider it only a temporary safety net. I just don't see these 15-20 percent returns in the cards this year.

For me...I'm watching my money closely. If you don't have the time to watch your money. Better to be in the L Funds.

The market is ripe for a fall...the smart money is bailing. This year will be tough to get the gains you have seen in the past. Don't expect those type of returns. :worried:

When you say read and follow the leaders (silly question, but who are the leaders you speak of LOL, is it the autotracker leaders on here? ) Again when people say buy low sell high, for example I think the S&P is down 32% this morning, so does this mean I should do an interfund transfer and move portion of amount into the C fund and take advantage of the market if it rises in the next few days? Then the day of the gains do another fund transfer and move it back into the G fund? Or does buy low and sell high mean something else?

I am watching my money, and want to be in control rather than the L funds, but at least there it seems some gains are being made compared to what I am doing. Guess I am just worried about another 2008 and having it in the L fund and then the market tanks and I lose a good bit.

 

[felixthecat]

Looky here...the S&P is not down 32 percent this morning. Your scarring folks! The S&P is only down 1.37 percent. Yikes...that is going to hurt a little...but 32 percent would be awful.

You talk like your timing the market...your going to be a market timer if you keep up this talk. History has shown market timing does not give you the best returns. Birch, man where are you? You need to come in here and straighten us all out. My success was mostly Stay In the Market and then some Market Timing when I knew I had good odds on my side.

When I talk of leaders I do mean the TSPTALK Annual Leaders...Those leaders last year and the year before can be found and tracked off the TSPTALK website.

Anyways, if you were trying to time the market, then you would have to know you are only allowed 2 aggressive moves per month in the TSP...and therefore here too on this TSPTALK site. Let say you were 100G to start the month from the month before. If you move 50C/50S today...before 11 AM CST (before 11 am Real TSP or before 11:10 AM TSPTALK SITE cuttoff times) then you would be into the the funds tomorrow for any gain or loss you might be entitled too. If you make the move at 11:00 in your real TSP or 11:10 TSPTALK that would be too late for the next day to get any returns or loss. You would go in the day after tomorrow. That is one risk move. Let us know say you did great for a week...then you want to move to say 50F/50G...that would be a second risk move (Since F Fund is considered a Risk Move)...you then have used up your 2 risk moves for the month. You are then allowed unlimited moves back to the G Fund only.

 

[Cactus]

Welcome to TSPTalk, Wiff007. My advice is to find a method that works for you and you can stick with when it's up or down. Your emotions are your own worst enemy. They will cause you to panic and buy high and sell low. That's the way the market works.

I am concerned that you just want to jump in there and start making trades. That's a good way to lose your shirt. I would actually recommend that you don't commit funds right away but play around with your AT account until you decide what you want to do. I am also not a fan of the L Funds, but you could use those or pay for a premium service until you decide you are ready to commit real money on a system you are going to follow.

One last word of warning, it is different trading for practice than using your own money. Your emotions will eat you alive when your money is on the line. That is why you can't listen to them. You have to go with your system. Are you a pilot by any chance. When flying you rely on your instruments instead of your inner ear to tell you where you are or you die. The market is like that and your system are the instruments. Just my 2 cents worth.

 

[Wiff007]

Looky here...the S&P is not down 32 percent this morning. Your scarring folks! The S&P is only down 1.37 percent. Yikes...that is going to hurt a little...but 32 percent would be awful.

You talk like your timing the market...your going to be a market timer if you keep up this talk. History has shown market timing does not give you the best returns. Birch, man where are you? You need to come in here and straighten us all out. My success was mostly Stay In the Market and then some Market Timing when I knew I had good odds on my side.

When I talk of leaders I do mean the TSPTALK Annual Leaders...Those leaders last year and the year before can be found and tracked off the TSPTALK website.

Anyways, if you were trying to time the market, then you would have to know you are only allowed 2 aggressive moves per month in the TSP...and therefore here too on this TSPTALK site. Let say you were 100G to start the month from the month before. If you move 50C/50S today...before 11 AM CST (before 11 am Real TSP or before 11:10 AM TSPTALK SITE cuttoff times) then you would be into the the funds tomorrow for any gain or loss you might be entitled too. If you make the move at 11:00 in your real TSP or 11:10 TSPTALK that would be too late for the next day to get any returns or loss. You would go in the day after tomorrow. That is one risk move. Let us know say you did great for a week...then you want to move to say 50F/50G...that would be a second risk move (Since F Fund is considered a Risk Move)...you then have used up your 2 risk moves for the month. You are then allowed unlimited moves back to the G Fund only.

Sorry don't mean to scare folks, my phone just shows that S&P is down 37 points. Sorry I didn't do the percentage of it.

 

[Longstreet]

I suggest understanding the rules regarding TSP transactions, particularly the interfund transfer rules that Felix was talking about. It seems simple, but you can get yourself out of position pretty easily if you do not do some scenario analysis in your head. As an example, if you dart in and out quickly at the beginning of the month, you are stuck for the rest of the month on the sidelines. I was a maniac last year with over 40 IFT transfers, often jumped the gun and had to suck my thumb toward the end of the month on several occassions when I thought there was prudent opportunity. I ended up about 8.4%, but got lucky in December when I jumped all in at just the right time. About 5 minutes after making the move, I had the feeling of dread in the pit of my stomach that I just screwed up big time and it remained until the following morning. Two days later and 4.4% up later, I felt better.....lol......but the point being was: 1. I was lucky 2. This isn't easy. Good luck!!

 

[nasa1974]

Wiff007,

Welcome aboard. Following the leader doesn't always mean your will be on top. In 2013 I was lucky enough to finish at just over 37%. In 2014 I finished around 7.5%. Some of the top finishers this year didn't have an outstanding 2013. The point is you are responsible for your money. You have to determine if you want to play it safe or be aggressive. As other people have said this is a great place to learn. Ask questions. Good luck.

 

[Skorcher]

One downside to following a leader is that you will always be one day behind since you won't see the move until after that day's noon EST deadline.

Wiff007,

Welcome aboard. Following the leader doesn't always mean your will be on top. In 2013 I was lucky enough to finish at just over 37%. In 2014 I finished around 7.5%. Some of the top finishers this year didn't have an outstanding 2013. The point is you are responsible for your money. You have to determine if you want to play it safe or be aggressive. As other people have said this is a great place to learn. Ask questions. Good luck.

 

[felixthecat]

Not true. If they move before 11 am cst or noon est time...you can still monitor the members right up until the deadline. I do it to check for herd mentality all the time. I made a move ahead of the deadline and was able to see myself quite easily being the risk taker nut or genius. We will find out tomorrow through Thursday whether I'm a nut.

TSP Talk AutoTracker

 

[nnuut]

We are both NNUUTS!:laugh:

 

[felixthecat]

We are both NNUUTS!:laugh:

Yes indeed. Keep the dream alive.

 

[Wiff007]

Well I did 70% in the G Fund and 30% in the S fund, going to see if the market goes up by the end of the week.

 

[amoeba]

This is a tough call: generally, the rebound in C/S occurs after a irregular top in the VIX which can last as few as 3 or as many as 8 days; because of the volatility (in the volatility) at these tops, you can't really see them until they end. In this case, we are witnessing a double top with the prior one just recently (12/16), but this one will be the first VIX top under 20 out of the last 3, if that's where it ends up. Doesn't quite look like the recent pattern.

 

[Wiff007]

Yeah stocks are going up today

wish th I would have done 100% in S fund lol. Now have a question. How long should I stick out this IFT. I know today and hope tomorrow I will get back some I lost in Dec. Should I go all back in the G Friday. Will we not have a few down days again next week to adjust for the gains today?


I just don't want to lose the gains I probably will get back today lol.

 

[Wiff007]

Good Evening,


Okay I have been thinking of some more things this afternoon and figure here might be a good place to ask.


1. When I hear you guys talk about buying low? I might have asked this actually but figure I might rephrase it. Okay so if you buy low are you doing an allocation percent of saying buy with the "new money" that is coming in (I guess this is for the people still working) and putting 100% into one fund?


2. Also what is a good graph or site that I can like monitor how the market goes and make my adjustments with? I figure that is probably on here lol : ) but as a rookie lol, how or what do I use to follow? Is there a beginner graph lol.


3. Does anyone have any options about how the market might do say on Friday? I am hoping we can ride these gains till then, I just know I don't want to lose my gains today. Is there a chance we could have another big drop this month?


Thanks for all the assistance this site is so far awesome.

 

[pmaloney]

There are lots of finance sites and tools http://finance.yahoo.com/ Yahoo Finance is a good place to start.

Buying low usually means to buy an index like the C or S fund or an individual stock like Intel at what you think is a low price because you think it will go higher.

As of yesterday the C and S were down five days in a row so they were a lot lower than they were after Christmas.

Today they came back up and they may continue to do so or not.

Good luck.