Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Where is everybody? :scratchchin: Must be out on leave heading into turkey day... At any rate, looking at the charts, the C Fund is showing a similar set up to Jun-Jul; indecisive action ahead of the next rally. I'm thinking we rise the rest of today, tomorrow, then drop post-holiday before the Santa rally kicks in. The question is whether to jump in today, with the chance the market doesn't look back, or wait till the expected weakness - that railroad strike is out there, among other things. Small caps are supposed to be strongest this time of year. Thoughts? :feedback:

 

[Whipsaw]

Ok, 60 % S, 40% C, COB :22:

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are supposed to be strongest this time of year. Thoughts? :feedback:

The "January Effect" used to mean the small caps outperforming in January. That crept into December over the years - I assume traders were trying to get the jump on each other.

Last year large caps killed the small caps in November and December for some reason. In 2020 it was the small caps that smashed the large caps.

They'll keep you guessing.

 

[retread]

Market is up on light volume, easier to push around. No institutional participation. Could get hammered next week as everyone comes back to work. Vix just filled that gap down below and C fund getting close to longer term downtrend and that 200 MA, so to me it looks similar to mid Aug just before it all went down. But I'll probably be wrong since I am mostly in G.

Where is everybody? :scratchchin: Must be out on leave heading into turkey day... At any rate, looking at the charts, the C Fund is showing a similar set up to Jun-Jul; indecisive action ahead of the next rally. I'm thinking we rise the rest of today, tomorrow, then drop post-holiday before the Santa rally kicks in. The question is whether to jump in today, with the chance the market doesn't look back, or wait till the expected weakness - that railroad strike is out there, among other things. Small caps are supposed to be strongest this time of year. Thoughts? :feedback:

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks, guys! Well so far so good, making a little denaro today. Hopefully the post-holiday reversal won't be too bad. Folks hitting the road regardless of gas prices, that is encouraging from an economic perspective; maybe that will carry forward into the market as we claw our way out of the COVID, and now inflation driven morass.

 

[Whipsaw]

Still climbing on the half day today... Just a little. At resistance, maybe we 'break on through to the other side.' Drawing a line from the previous three peaks on the SPX, the next peak will hit that line around 4200. Hmmmmmmmm.

 

[Whipsaw]

Yesterday stung, so long a year-end rally materializes... gotta love marketwatch articles today - expect fireworks as headwinds have flipped; 25% plunge next year; stock rebound as china fears abate; recession not priced in... something has to be right, or not. :suspicious:

 

[retread]

CNBC does the same thing. I've seen them blame it on a topic if it's a red day, and then later as the day turns green they will change the narrative on the same topic and say it's less bad or fears have lessened. Pathetic.

Yesterday stung, so long a year-end rally materializes... gotta love marketwatch articles today - expect fireworks as headwinds have flipped; 25% plunge next year; stock rebound as china fears abate; recession not priced in... something has to be right, or not. :suspicious:

 

[Epic]

25% plunge next year

Steve Forbes thinks so.
He says (I'm paraphrasing) 4th quarter will give a FALSE (positive / good) signal as people are determined to have a good Christmas Holiday and are spending and running up Credit Card debt, but we'll pay for that come 2023.
His audio cuts out for about a second, but you get his message anyway.

..

 

[Whipsaw]

I'll be sure to exit in December like I did last year!

 

[Whipsaw]

Holy rally-to-the-close, Batman! Every once in a while, things work out. :laugh:

 

[Whipsaw]

I think we're back in 'good news is bad news' territory, good news for the economy and the market is bad for the fed and its mission to stop inflation. I'm hoping the seasonality holds through the end of December and we we continue to see the market rise. Then, I guess, all bets are off! :nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

Similar to Epic's post, Briefing's 'The Big Picture' suggesting seasonality holds through the end of the year then 20% down...

The Big Picture (briefing.com)

 

[Whipsaw]

Alright, enough fooling around. It's time for one of those rallies like we got last week! :rant:

 

[Whipsaw]

I mean it, :angryfire: this is screwing up my positive balance for the year! :headache:

 

[Whipsaw]

I HATE it when this happens! :banghead:

 

[Epic]

Here ya go..... It's the best I can do. Slam a few virtual Beers.....:friday:

 

[Whipsaw]

No way! That's AWESOME! Thanks! I may have to swap in for my Avatar on occasion. :beerchug::friday:

 

[Whipsaw]

We may be gaining a little ground here. Shhhhhhh, don't look... you'll spook it... :shhh:

 

[Whipsaw]

The weekly chart for SPX is not very encouraging. :notrust:

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)