Whipsaw's Account Talk

[TOTHEMOON]

I liked the first part, going into malls and checking prices and what people are buying. The part about checking gas prices, is way too loaded with uncertainty. Gas prices have become a political tool, and not rooted at all in what the markets are doing. Sure gas affects airlines and travel, supply to a degree, inflation to a degree. Gas prices are as the Fed even said, not something to count on continuing to come down. When gas was up to 5, there was an uproar, and the President has breathed one of his remaining sighs of relief. A majority of the economy is based on what people are buying. Have you looked at Target and Wal Mart's entries in the news recently? Also, the government was lying when they announced half a million new jobs in the labor market.

 

[weatherweenie]

Also, the government was lying when they announced half a million new jobs in the labor market.

Cool story, bruh.

 

[Whipsaw]

Good Morning Whipsaw, Wow.. I see your still using the BigChart layout! Looking at them, I realize I still like the 5,5 setting on Slow Sto. I may need to re-adopt that! Best wishes to you!

DBA, thanks! I find it cleaner and somewhat easier to read - the indicators have been fairly solid as well. Thanks for building them for me.

 

[Whipsaw]

The plan is to buy the dip, though I don't think this dip is just today - with luck it will blow through the gap on Bquat's chart and bounce of the 100 DMA.

Have a great weekend everyone! :beerchug:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA, thanks! I find it cleaner and somewhat easier to read - the indicators have been fairly solid as well. Thanks for building them for me.

.
Your welcome friend. Lol... Your right about that. I do like how clean they are! When I look at my marked-up charts, I go cross-eyed!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I liked the first part, going into malls and checking prices and what people are buying. The part about checking gas prices, is way too loaded with uncertainty. Gas prices have become a political tool, and not rooted at all in what the markets are doing. Sure gas affects airlines and travel, supply to a degree, inflation to a degree. Gas prices are as the Fed even said, not something to count on continuing to come down. When gas was up to 5, there was an uproar, and the President has breathed one of his remaining sighs of relief. A majority of the economy is based on what people are buying. Have you looked at Target and Wal Mart's entries in the news recently? Also, the government was lying when they announced half a million new jobs in the labor market.

No the Gov't did not "Lie" about the jobs numbers. They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and have been calculated the same way for decades.

No, the price of Oil (gasoline at the pumps) has a MAJOR effect on Inflation, possibly the biggest factor in this cycle and eventually on the economy, as people travel less, or have less money available to spend on other things.

No, there is little evidence that the price of oil will stop coming down in the near future (next 8-12 weeks)...on the contrary we are entering a "seasonality" from Labor day on thru the fall and early winter when gasoline prices typically have their biggest downturns.

If you feel the price of gas is "too political"...that might mean you could be mixing way too much "partisan politics" into your investment decisions.
And that is a definite way to lose money, or not make any money...when you should have been making tons of $$ (ie last 2 months).

As for walking into Malls, that was in the 70s and 80s, doesn't work anymore as so much consumer activity has shifted to online shopping. I was using the Peter Lynch method simply to look at gasoline prices. But you could also look at the national avg, but those are always a few days/weeks old.
As for comparing price of gasoline, there are many variations in different parts of the country or even cities, but looking at 1 specific station only, does a quick filter of many of those local and regional variations....and gives you the purest assessment of what's gong on.
For what its worth...I've noticed the station I drive by, which was falling a penny a day on avg, now has stayed flat for the past 3-4 days...which mimics global crude oil prices that fell to near $86...but have bounced to near $90 in the past 4 days. Maybe that's why the market took a quick breather (along with going up so parabolically).
But if you look at a 6 month chart of crude oil, that just fits the pattern of "lower highs" in a much bigger downtrend...so expect to see more downward activity resume in the coming days. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F

But as always, one has to keep an eye out for any "Black Swan" events that can quickly make oil prices rise again, as well as any new Pandemic threats either here, or China, that could adversely impact supply chains...and be ready to quickly change investment course based on that.

 

[Whipsaw]

Tempted to move some in today, but momentum appears to still be toward the downside.

 

[rangerray]

I think I should have at least waited until that lower gap was fully filled to move in my scant (word of the day for me) 20%.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[Whipsaw]

So August is a wash for me at this point; I see FWM stepped aside (nice, I was on travel...). My take at this point is to hold position and deploy additional cash as we see new lows. Will be doing this in my brokerage accounts as well.

 

[rangerray]

I think FWM was joining you again today. I hope you both do well!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks, RR! Added another 10%, now 20% C, 20% S, COB. Indexes are just a little below where I entered in at the end of July, using just 1 IFT this month.

 

[rangerray]

Thanks, RR! Added another 10%, now 20% C, 20% S, COB. Indexes are just a little below where I entered in at the end of July, using just 1 IFT this month.

I’m not liking the waters I stuck my toe in — yet. Today would be a fantastic day for some gains.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[Whipsaw]

Hopefully some clarity will present over the weekend. Some saying this is a typical oversold rally, some others saying more pain on the way, we're no where near a bottom, etc. May step aside on Monday with my meager .5% or so gain. Can't complain but so much being 81 on the Tracker, still I dropped 12 slots. Have a great weekend everyone, we made it! :beerchug:

 

[Whipsaw]

I was otherwise distracted on Monday with my Mom at a dentist appointment and missed the exit. Oh well, back to plan A... incremental entries at strategic lows, plenty of dry powder left - and sticky pants. :cheesy:

 

[Whipsaw]

GRRRRR.... looking like a hammer reversal pattern so far today. Working from home, I can't answer my phone at work to get into the account. Brilliant set up.

 

[Whipsaw]

This noon cut off... maybe the sell off continues after a pause... I'm just...:ugh1:

 

[nasa1974]

This noon cut off... maybe the sell off continues after a pause... I'm just...:ugh1:

Instead of spending millions on a website that sucks, they could have spent much less and extended the IFT's to a 2pm EST cutoff time.

 

[Whipsaw]

Two spinning tops in a row, double the indecision? Is two in a row a reversal indicator, or continuation?

 

[Whipsaw]

Waiting with baited breath (what does that mean? Doesn't sound good... reminds me of fishing :nuts on the Fed announcement. Would like to know now. Any thoughts on the outcome? Up? Down? Priced in? Does a lower hike mean we go up? I'm tempted to put in another 5% or so.

 

[Whipsaw]

FYSA - the TSP site is very slow, I should have had enough time to put in an IFT once I logged in. After three or four page refreshes while making my way to the IFT page I was out of time.