Whipsaw's Account Talk

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I took a small bite of SPY yesterday in my brokerage account in anticipation of a small rally between rate hikes, something CNBC analyst expected to happen.
 
Why the %#%&* is there still a deadline at noon? This is the 21st century! I can buy a flying car if I had the money. Was looking to enter today, various analysts saying a near term bottom is in, rally through end of July, then august is down. :notrust:
 
Whipsaw said:
Why the %#%&* is there still a deadline at noon? This is the 21st century! I can buy a flying car if I had the money. Was looking to enter today, various analysts saying a near term bottom is in, rally through end of July, then august is down. :notrust:
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Same reason we're only allowed 2 IFT's LOL.
My wifes T Rowe Price Act allows to make an IFT within 10-15 min of the closing bell, and you get the price at the time of your IFT, maybe a 5 min delay.
BUT...they are only allowed 1 move a month, and that includes any move to safety. :(
 
:yawn: :24: :confused: I must have been asleep... 27 July??? what happened to 11 July to today? Looks like I was right, market is higher than on 8 Jul!!! :irked:
 
IFT 15% S, 15% C COB. I think we're closer to the bottom than the highs going forward. Incremental entry over the next few weeks/months.
 
Glad I'm wading up to my knees with this run up, though seeing several articles talking about testing the lows, the bad stuff hasn't arrived yet, yadda yadda. :notrust: Maybe a move coming up?
 
Market analysts all over the place, bear is over, bear not over, rally running out of steam, heading for new highs, buy these defensive stocks... Looking for a dip to add more to C & S, thinking we're at an intermediate high.
 
RR mentioned this is a frustrating rally - typical bear market rally it seems, stronger and running farther than expected. What is also frustrating are the number of variables that are changing significantly WRT energy, taxes, trade, etc. that is/will impact the market - but in what ways? A look at the last time interest rates were raised, the market went up, allot. Will that continue to be the case here, or are their other variables at work that will drive other outcomes?
 
Whipsaw said:
RR mentioned this is a frustrating rally - typical bear market rally it seems, stronger and running farther than expected. What is also frustrating are the number of variables that are changing significantly WRT energy, taxes, trade, etc. that is/will impact the market - but in what ways? A look at the last time interest rates were raised, the market went up, allot. Will that continue to be the case here, or are their other variables at work that will drive other outcomes?
Click to expand...

The simplest way to play this market, and what has worked for me (so far) is the "Peter Lynch Method".
He was a famous fund manager of Fidelity Magellan, arguably the best fund manager of all time.
He would often go to the nearby malls, and simply see what the action was, what people were buying most, which stores were the most crowded etc.
ALl I do...is drive by the same gas station on the way to work every day, and simply check its price for Regular.
It has been falling about 1-2 cents a day for the past 7 weeks...was about $5.29 2 months ago...now its $4.39. That was yesterday, today it might be $4.38??
As long as that price keeps slowly going lower...Inflation goes lower...and the chances of the FED doing something unexpected and negative, also goes lower. That means the market goes higher.
That's all anyone needs to know for now (till the next Fed meeting late Sep).
Everything else...is just "white noise". :smile:

Also I would just advise against concluding this is a "Bear Market Rally".
It might be...or the June low could have been the bottom, and we are now in a bonafide Bull Market.
I'm about 50/50 on either scenario now, but have to be prepared that either one could be valid.
The longer this rally goes on...the greater the probabilities go that the June bottom was the final bottom. IMHO.
 
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