Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Allot of interesting discussion on what is going on. Purely from what the charts show from February, it was like plucking a guitar string, with great amplitude at the beginning with sinusoidal ups and downs of decreasing magnitude. Will we see that type of action again? Need to dig into the DBA market analysis program she threw out today!

 

[Mcqlives]

No guesses from me...just an observation. We climbed up to the edge of yesterdays cliff pretty quick this morning. I thought we would hit SnP of 2699 today but didn't think it would happen till after our cutoff time. Begs the question 'Is this more than a relief rally/dead cat bounce?'

An hour to decide but I'm still planning on staying on pad.

 

[pmaloney]

Did somebody say Whipsaw! :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

Did somebody say Whipsaw! :smile:

Hey! That's my line! :nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

I hate to think it, but to catch some of the upside movement may require 1-day leaps of faith. :worried:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Nice little comeback... it would be nice for those in it to get back some. Looked at 15 min intraday, up up up… and then in past 15 mins a little red candle. now a green... but what happens after noon? We shall see...... not trying to be insensitive here as I know the losses are huge right now... but question is can it hold? Hopefully so. But is this the bottom????
I should think it is very close but …...:worried:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HI Whipsaw! Just FYI - that was just a laundry list of what I look at, but it does not reflect my actual decision making method or strategy. That is a well kept secret and that is probably a very good thing... not sure anyone would want it! lol....:laugh: heck … I don't even know if I want it... but what I am doing now did keep me out enough to not lose anything in Oct. and that is just downright miraculous!

Hey do any of you all want to play with TSPTalk poker club: Texas Hold Em???? Just wondering... it is fun, free and we play once a week... alternate each week Sunday/ Monday at 7pm CT. I am very nice!!!!! You can ask anyone … and BerryCuda hardly ever shows her teeth! ...well until she takes the big chomp... ouchy!!! kee kee kee

Allot of interesting discussion on what is going on. Purely from what the charts show from February, it was like plucking a guitar string, with great amplitude at the beginning with sinusoidal ups and downs of decreasing magnitude. Will we see that type of action again? Need to dig into the DBA market analysis program she threw out today!

 

[Whipsaw]

Tempted to put in a ~20% position while sale prices reign. This would be a long term put for when Mr. Market recovers... Thoughts?

 

[ravensfan]

With volatility being what it is, I don't think I would make that move. I think it is time for quick ins (buying big drops) and quick outs (exiting as soon as the market goes up).

Wish I would have done that last week (exiting on Tuesday). If so, I would be enjoying an nice gain for October instead of being outperformed by the G Fund...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I would definitely consider it... intraday it is forming a candle with long TAIL... but it would be short short short term entry... a couple days at most... just long enough to see an up day and then get out fast. It is high risk! If I did it, I might go in a bit more …. 40%. on exit.. consider taking out half one day and then the rest the next just to try to avoid a bad exit if it drops in the afternoon. Best wishes on anything you decide Whipsaw!!!! :smile:

P.S. caution... think around 11/4 higher tariffs kick in and/or maybe new tariffs... gotta research it but I recall something like that for 11/4. As we get closer, no telling the effect. Also the whole Brexit issues hit in December as well as something about 12/31 being the end of European Central Bank Qualitative Easing..


ALSO Dollar moving up (not good for equities) but 10-yr Treasury rates moving down (good).

Tempted to put in a ~20% position while sale prices reign. This would be a long term put for when Mr. Market recovers... Thoughts?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is more of a Bear Strategy...get in on drops for a possible short bounce UP (hopefully). I don't believe the True Bottom is yet been hit. So no long term plays for me, Then again, I could be wrong but will err on side of caution. well...lol, if you even consider a risky entry/exit as it is a risk.

 

[Whipsaw]

I gooned it anyway...

 

[Whipsaw]

Requesting comments on the information at the link:

https://rightsideofthechart.com/time-to-start-reducing-short-exposure/

 

[Mcqlives]

Maybe...I can't find it now but just read something yesterday (thought it was on here somewhere but can't find it now) citing Elliott waves putting an intermediate low at 2600 followed with a run up to the 2870ish (10%) area followed by a drop to, possibly, 2400. If I recall correctly this was projected out to occur about 4 months away. If 2600 was a floor (good possibility for shorter term and we bounced at 2604ish yesterday) then I will be looking for confirmation when it breaks through the 2700 area.

 

[BamaAF]

Acting like it wants to go red before lunch

 

[Whipsaw]

IFT 50% C, 50% S COB. High risk, based on the link above... also, using this Oct IFT to get in, can jump out and have IFTs to get in again the next day. :wall:

 

[ravensfan]

IFT 50% C, 50% S COB. High risk, based on the link above... also, using this Oct IFT to get in, can jump out and have IFTs to get in again the next day. :wall:

It takes some avocado size doodads to make a move like that without confirmation that the bottom is in.:nuts: Good luck my friend!!!

 

[Whipsaw]

Futures are UP! :nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

Gap up (future low target), upper descending trend line broken... :biggthumpup:

 

[Whipsaw]

IFT 100% G COB. Same justification as James... expecting some downside. I've got allot of work to do. At least its a new month, and I've got another IFT to get back in on another low. My performance per TSP is 6% for the last 12 mo, but that updates on Monday, so I'm probably about 0%...