Whipsaw's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
I was thinking about entering today.... lots of times, when we get good news and have a nice pop.. that will continue for a day or two. Just looked at charts again... S fund looks good but am going to wait. C fund is close to resistance.. has a little more to go. Then there are lots of numbers coming out this week and then I think next week we start getting some earnings info...

I don't know... I almost jumped into S today... but my plan for month was to enter later in month after a short term drop... So kinda wishing I had an additional move each month. If I did, I would get in now for a few days. uggh… It seems that each month, folks jump in on the first of month and make out pretty good for a week or so. Too little time this morning to really decide.
Click to expand...

Not feeling the love for S at the moment. I like the C but yeah...there could be a little dip tomorrow so I will hold for now. :smile:
 
Not sure what is driving S fund down today???? It has been moving down but kinda scratching head about it today. Tech and Financial sector (SPDR) are up.

Here is 15 minute - 5 day chart for S Fund
S fund 15 min chart- 5 days.jpg
 
Whipsaw said:
So what happened to the S fund? Pop and drop! Moving to C after the smoke clears, tomorrow or Wednesday... :-/
Click to expand...

I thought you would have made the move to C fund by now. I admire your perseverance. I will probably be making a move very soon myself, but will remain conservative in my approach. Small steps have been working well for me this year. :rolleyes:
 
Buy when there is blood in the streets? Other funds are doing well but S has been lagging and beaten down lately. Good time to hop on the S train or is it time to consider steam is running out and markets are due to soon head South?
 
Was looking for a relief rally of some sort for the S before jumping... still don't understand what is beating down the small caps.

Haven't been able to get to the TSP Talk commentary for a week or two...

May have to eat the loss in the S and move to C, which is likely poised for some downside at this point... :-/
 
Hi WS.. there might be a good bounce day this week, but agree with you. C fund looking best. So far, I am staying out. Today, news relates to Italy and fears in EU affecting our markets a bit. Best wishes to you!! :)

Try to keep a skip in your walk.. :dance:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi WS.. there might be a good bounce day this week, but agree with you. C fund looking best. So far, I am staying out. Today, news relates to Italy and fears in EU affecting our markets a bit. Best wishes to you!! :)

Try to keep a skip in your walk.. :dance:
Click to expand...
Looking for a dead cat bounce on small caps. May be a just a tad early on entry. Tricky month me thinks this could be. Just trying to eek out a 1 percent gain this month to continue climbing the charts.
 
Hi Felix, Yep...I am waiting to enter. Sounds like WS was looking for an exit; though I may have misunderstood him. Definitely agree with you, this will likely be a tricky month, as will be first week in November up to election day. Surprised S fund has now hit and closed just below 100 day SMA and now at 1444.51. It broke below support zone of 1466-1461 yesterday. It has closed below lower Bollinger band for 3 of last 5 days, so it should bounce!

Best wishes to you, Whipsaw and Everyone!!!!! :smile:

PS. just checked and DOW futures are up +124 right now. Hope that follows through into Wednesday. :dance:
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
But just to be clear. Just because it bounces doesn't mean it has bottomed. I'm trying to be more cautious for October.
Click to expand...

I see some whipsaw ahead as well :laugh:...but for now...will tread lightly. Currently 100 percent S. Thanks DBA and Whipsaw for your valuable posts! Like many others on here...I have come to enjoy the reads.
 
HI WS, That is a very good article and table---THANK YOU!!!! :)

Yes... I had noticed that divergence between C and S fund last week (i.e. S&P 500-large cap versus S fund=Small Caps). I understand that Small Caps is a leading indicator of sorts because it tends to top out before the large caps. It is also supposed to be an indicator of US economic strength since the small businesses are more invested here at home while the large caps get a higher proportion of their revenue from outside US. So this has happened during large market turns but it does take many months to a year before it becomes reality. So just means we need to be more careful (than we already are??? lol... ). To me, its just something to watch and consider as we continue to invest. I am using shorter EMAs and crossovers to get in and out of market now. I feel better doing that. Plus October has had some really nasty downs in the past so good to be on our toes! Plus we have all the politics of mid-term elections and Supreme court pick, etc and China trade not settled.... so there is a lot to watch.

I want to enter market but staying out another day. S fund is still sliding and price is hugging the lower band, so I am waiting to see price move away from the band and then for a candle with long tail below it for entry or at least some other candle that signals a bottom … it kinda needs to be obvious as I am getting old and obviously do not see too well!!!! lol.... :D ….AS for the C fund, well it is high and I am trying to avoid getting in high... now just because I said that it will take off like a rocket and into the far reaches of the galaxy while I sit here with face on hands, looking up in wonder with start dust splattered all over me!! :rolleyes: ….earnings start coming out next week and I thought GDP would be out this week????? Could be the spark needed!!!

But the C fund does have MACDs crossing positive but Stochastic did not even come down to 50 before turning back up so I am thinking it is a weak rally up to the 80 or upper Bollinger? That is my read... so while I could get in a few days, I am going to wait for the next wave and hope I don't have all that star dust on me. …. will see. Best Wishes to you and everyone !!!! :smile:

Whipsaw said:
Futures are up, hopefully for small caps as well. :suspicious: Saw this... doesn't bode well if it has any legs:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...k-market-could-spell-trouble-ahead-2018-10-02
Click to expand...
 
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Thansk DBA!! I posted earlier but my browser threw me out and dumped the post. Still in the S fund... down to where people are jumping in, starting to sting a little. Refreshing the stickum on the sticky pants... hopefully we're not rolling over into a deeper sell off =:-o Too bad we don't get to put in stops. >.<
 
Hi Whipsaw, At this point it may be best to re-apply gorilla glue to those sticky pants. I definitely feel for you as I know this is a tough spot to be in. I went through this several times earlier this year and ... I did make mistake of exiting only to see it recover in later months. But nonetheless, it is hard especially since we can never really know what is going to happen. However, as far as I can see, we are still in a Bull Market so I definitely hope it recovers quickly. All the economic indicators are strong! So hope is not unfounded. Keep your chin up!!!!

Best Wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!:o
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
HI WS, That is a very good article and table---THANK YOU!!!! :)



I want to enter market but staying out another day. S fund is still sliding and price is hugging the lower band, so I am waiting to see price move away from the band and then for a candle with long tail below it for entry or at least some other candle that signals a bottom …
Click to expand...


so why didn't I listen to your God given woman's intuition yesterday right before I jumped in yesterday. :banghead:
 
Feeling your pain today Whipsaw. Hoping you are able to dig out one more time. In the meantime, enjoy the clip.


RF
 
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