Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Talk about a blast to the past...I remember those signs as a kid traveling in the old Rambler station wagon with mom and dad from Empire, Mn to Vinton, Ia to visit grandma and grandpa. My dad would sometimes read them out loud as we drove past 'em...sigh

LS
 
Burma-Shave! Its interesting when a post takes on a life of its own. Its not like I was trying to improve my post ranking or anything like that... ;)
 
C'mon Mr. Market! Rally! Go! Go! Go! You can do it... Keep heading north! Straight line trajectory to 1020 at the close! :D :laugh: :nuts:

(just a little motivation for the market :cheesy: )
 
Heck, I would be happy to see the F Fund break through 111. Been rooting for that for almost a month now...:nuts:
 
Whipsaw said:
I don't know, more folks are jumping in on the AT than out. Funny thing, they both think they're right! :D
Click to expand...

That could just be some folks buying the dip. I just looked at the chart for DWCPF and slow stoch and MACD are not giving a buy signal (no positive crossover) In addition, RSI has dropped below 50. My strategy tells me there is more pain to come before it is time to jump in. Perhaps next week or the week after, but not now...Besides, doesn't seasonality dictate the C Fund is the place to be in May?
 
ravensfan said:
...Besides, doesn't seasonality dictate the C Fund is the place to be in May?
Click to expand...

Actually, now that I have monthly data going back a full 30 years (and proof that a basic seasonal system would have blown away the S&P 500's return over those 30 years, returning 15.83% versus 10.13%), I can answer that question. Over the last 10 years the G fund is the best for the month of May, but C and S do the best in the long run (20 and 30 years). Looking over charts tonight I see some that are telling me a rally or maybe something much bigger (new highs) to the upside is about to unfold...like QQQ for example, notice how oversold the MFI is...plug in AAPL and it's the same...
QQQ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I see that the lunatic trader's chart is predicting a high for the month on 5/17, so maybe that's what is about to unfold:
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/

I think I'm going to take the plunge and get in, just trying to decide on tomorrow or Friday...and going back to the seasonality for May, it's about a toss up...S wins over the last 20 years (up an average of 0.77%) and C wins over the last 30 years, up 1.3%, slightly beating S. Both C and S are in the red over the last 10 years though, and the I fund's April strength wears off and it's typically the anchor in May.

One guru is predicting a rally tomorrow (and I see the futures are up strong...was today the day to jump in?) and then one more drop Friday and into Monday morning...so it's a tough call whether I want to jump in tomorrow or Friday...or stay put...ah, what the heck, I'm putting in the move now but could change my mind in the morning.

Meanwhile it's possible the dollar is reversing straight up as I mentioned yesterday, and that could unleash a chain-reaction that blows everything up...
China Blowing Even Bigger Credit Bubble Puts World at Greater Risk, Says Global Strategist | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE
 
TS: The dollar looks to rise but that means the Yen is set to fall and oil is probably headed to $50. The yuan was substantially devalued yesterday I believe. So I'm expecting a big kick up starting today for a short period. I think this will be followed by a scary retrace that we've all been concerned about since Feb.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
TS: The dollar looks to rise but that means the Yen is set to fall and oil is probably headed to $50. The yuan was substantially devalued yesterday I believe. So I'm expecting a big kick up starting today for a short period. I think this will be followed by a scary retrace that we've all been concerned about since Feb.

FS
Click to expand...

Do you think there will be any follow through to Friday or Monday?
 
No clue WS. My guess is UP today...followed by down tomorrow (probably jobs report but who knows) and down again Monday because its Monday. Then I think it goes up through mid May. Overall, I think this trade will play up for a brief period. A total guess on my part.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
No clue WS. My guess is UP today...followed by down tomorrow (probably jobs report but who knows) and down again Monday because its Monday. Then I think it goes up through mid May. Overall, I think this trade will play up for a brief period. A total guess on my part.

FS
Click to expand...

Thanks FS! Seeing some signs of life now. Agree re. jobs w/jobless claims up; much talk of strength on the Marketwatch stream...
 
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