Whipsaw's Account Talk

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I'm out... If in fact the H&S pattern is on and we failed the head test, the Fed presses w/bad new (which may be good news), the oil storage crisis may also be on us soon... I'm usually too long at the fair anyway. Taking a fresh look in April. 100% G COB.
 
Whipsaw said:
I'm out... If in fact the H&S pattern is on and we failed the head test, the Fed presses w/bad new (which may be good news), the oil storage crisis may also be on us soon... I'm usually too long at the fair anyway. Taking a fresh look in April. 100% G COB.
Click to expand...

Glad you are out WS. I'm just hoping the monster doesn't eat up to much of what has been a nice month for you. I think we are definitely into pullback mode with the S&P being down the last two days. I expect the afternoon will continue down as folks will take profits today. Can't see the bulls stepping in to buy the dip.

With that said, I'm thinking about increasing my F fund allocation to 35% today to take advantage of the pullback. Hopefully, it will set me up for a nice entry at reduced prices next week. I would like to be in equities going into April but only if we are in an uptrend. Now all I have to do is implement the plan...:rolleyes:
 
FogSailing said:
I think it continues down tomorrow....but not lower than 2019.If it looks like it's headed lower than 2019, the bears would be gaining momentum and I won't IFT. But my thought is that Friday rallies to round 2070. After that I think we pull back because (based on my count) the B Wave up will have completed. I'd like to hear what Tsunami thinks as well. He has a better feel for EW than I do. I plan to go in 100% C tomorrow for a one day splash.
FS
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So far the market is doing exactly as I expected and posted yesterday. A gap down today, and a perfect bottom for today's little wave 3 down would be at about 2016 (1.62 times wave 1 down)...then comes a little wave 4 bounce for most of the rest of today...then Monday morning would bring wave 5 down...ideally bottoming around that 200 ema Tom showed in his commentary today. That would complete the 5 waves of the initial first wave down of the renewed bear market, and the ensuing bounce could last into month-end, but not exceed the 2057 peak of two days ago....so, if I was in stocks I don't think I'd get out today since a bounce is coming, but that would be a risky move since things could start moving fast and furious Monday. My hunch though is Ms. Market will allow the bulls to stay bullish with a rally starting Monday and last until about 3/31...then the next rug pull comes on April Fool's day. If none of that happens and it heads up from here, then it was just a 3-wave corrective pullback and new highs are coming next week, perhaps up to 2080 next week.

As for me, I'm content just sitting 100% in the F fund as it keeps grinding it's way higher and is yelling at Yellen to stop with the interest rate hike talk. The demographic tsunami of retirees won't allow tightening yet.

Edit: Hmm, just 10 minutes later and looking at QQQ I'm already rethinking this bearish view. If it goes green I think this was just a 3-wave pullback and the bulls are alive and well.
 
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Well, having bailed, I'm glad I got a little back from the 2 day dump (out today and tomorrow, then travel next week, no worries on this move). Lots of excitement for basically a wash on this trade. Actually, I think I'm a few tenths to the good :). Will be watching the churn from the lily pad till 1 April. Happy investing, stay thirsty my friends. :D
 
Just when you think you've got some idea of the way ahead, someone opens their mouth and turns it upside down. Oh well, I can get back in on the 4th, I think, but that's a Monday, and the IFT has to go in on Friday... I'm on travel too, not likely to have access to a machine... Hmmmmmmm....

Bad news is good news again... Nice run today, watching from the sidelines :-/

Stocks close at 2016 highs as Yellen strikes cautious tone - MarketWatch
 
dang, that was some hot juice the fed shot the market up with today, huh?

ain't no tellin yellen, i'm not sure events like that can be predicted, let alone capitalized on with a tsp account.

the predictable thing about hot air balloons is they all come to ground, eventually.
 
Whipsaw said:
Just when you think you've got some idea of the way ahead, someone opens their mouth and turns it upside down. Oh well, I can get back in on the 4th, I think, but that's a Monday, and the IFT has to go in on Friday... I'm on travel too, not likely to have access to a machine... Hmmmmmmm....
Click to expand...

Got a phone? Call 1-877-968-3778. Your account number and pin (if you remember it) will get you in. You can use the menu or talk to a person to make your trade.
 
Back from travel; will be able to keep a closer eye on goings on. Right now, looking at MJR's rounded top chart, Tsunami's comments, JTH-ESD going to the F-train (I've never had luck on the F-Train), Burros-Ark, and various commentary from around the web, will be holding tight for a while expecting a better entry point (I feel like I would be 'buying high' if I jumped in at this point, even though there is consolidation indicated). Still in the capital preservation mindset. Happy investing everyone!

These 4 charts say it
 
Alright, another capitulation move on my part... considering this relatively high risk, looking for a point or two follow through into Friday. Just the chorus of 'the Bull is here!' in the news is making me nervous. At any rate, if I get out with an up day tomorrow I'll spank FAB1! =:-o 100% S COB.
 
Pretty quiet around here today. Folks taking the day off? Any predictions on next week? The Oil meeting in Doha on Sunday may have some impact...
 
Whipsaw said:
Pretty quiet around here today. Folks taking the day off? Any predictions on next week? The Oil meeting in Doha on Sunday may have some impact...
Click to expand...

It could be spring fever...That's when the iron in your blood turns to lead in your a$$...:nuts:

As for the markets next week? They will probably go up because I am out of IFT's for the month and sitting 50% G fund, 50% F fund.
 
ravensfan said:
It could be spring fever...That's when the iron in your blood turns to lead in your a$$...:nuts:

As for the markets next week? They will probably go up because I am out of IFT's for the month and sitting 50% G fund, 50% F fund.
Click to expand...

Maybe that will offset the downward pressure from my entry this week! :D :eek:
 
Still 100% S. Was considering an exit, but couldn't digest all the info before noon, let alone log-in in time, so I ride... Not sure where this is going, but it looks good so far. :D
 
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