Whipsaw's Account Talk

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ravensfan said:
Ok, so here's my justification for standing pat: Slow Stochastics are around 90 for both the S&P (C Fund) and DWCPF (S Fund). With yesterdays close, candles on both charts are at or near the upper bollenger bands. In addition, yesterday both the C and S Funds took out the February highs.

I've seen this movie before. This is where the scary music starts and then the bottom drops out. With that said, I remain 85% G Fund, 15% F fund. We may ride this thing up a little higher, perhaps to the 200 EMA, but I don't think the risk is worth the reward. So I'll just stand pat at this point and wait for the Leprechaun to deliver a pot of gold later this month... :popcorn:

Your thoughts?
Click to expand...

Apparently this rally is still linked to oil, which is not out of the woods yet. It is early in the month to commit and buy high at this point (hind sight would have been to put on 29 Feb; that goes to the adage, once you spot the pattern, it changes). I'm thinking it can go up further, but like you its a risk/reward situation. Holding for a better entry, but at some point gotta fish or cut bait. I have to get better at reading the technical you point to...
 
Man, the action this week and last is insane. Capitulation is looming in the Whipsaw camp. I'm tempted to jump in and catch what's left of this rally (of course, that would mean today is the last of it), and then sitting out the rest of the month. :-/
 
Whipsaw said:
Man, the action this week and last is insane. Capitulation is looming in the Whipsaw camp. I'm tempted to jump in and catch what's left of this rally (of course, that would mean today is the last of it), and then sitting out the rest of the month. :-/
Click to expand...

Then I have to ask you to please stay on the sideline. There are a lot of people missing out on it. I jumped in on 24 Feb. when we were testing 1890 and by the end of the day got whipsawed back to 1930 on the S&P, up 40 points from what I thought was a good entry. Due to our limitations its hard to time things in a volatile market. Good luck the trend is your friend (sometimes)
 
100% S COB. Seeing strength through to the 200 day EMA, hopefully to JTHs target. Looking to get a few percentage points, then sideline till April.
 
Bank-a-palooza!?? It seems the central banks are playing with various approaches to currency devaluation, lowering rates further into negative territory and other easing measures to spark growth. Hmmmmm... Does the Fed tighten next Wednesday or sit this one out? Hopefully the latter, or we get into the good news/bad news market vs. economy vs. rate hikes again.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/09/markets-brace-for-central-bank-a-palooza.html
 
Whipsaw said:
Bank-a-palooza!?? It seems the central banks are playing with various approaches to currency devaluation, lowering rates further into negative territory and other easing measures to spark growth. Hmmmmm... Does the Fed tighten next Wednesday or sit this one out? Hopefully the latter, or we get into the good news/bad news market vs. economy vs. rate hikes again.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/09/markets-brace-for-central-bank-a-palooza.html
Click to expand...

i saw that article too and my first thought was 'burro-palooza' has a nice ring to it, maybe i should steal it. but then i knew some quick folks on here would recognize the plagiarism for what it was.

what future does this hold for g-fund rates? what effect might it have on spending across the spectrum? what if all fed employees and retirees realized they would guaranteed lose money sitting in g-fund cash and decided to take a tsp loan paying themselves back later at -0.40% interest rate (hell, you could make money by spending money!) and then spending the money now on hard durable things they know they will in the future need? tis better a lender than a borrower be unless you are lending to yourself? crazy stuff.

money (debt) is just digital ones and zeros anymore, nobody ever expects it can or should actually be paid back. get used to it.

party on.
 
sorry to hijack your thread whipsaw, but this will only take a second...

so if the lending rate is -0.40% (minus) and you borrow $100,000 then you could pay back $99,600 and be clear of the loan? and pocket +$400? i would make as many loans to myself as often as i could, all day long. what is this negative interest rate thing all about? who is trying to accomplish what here?

those are some heavy things to think about. kind of like staring at one of those escher drawerings of the person seeing themselves in the mirror in the mirror in the mirror...

ad infinitum. crazy stuff. and this is acceptable fiscal policy in this day and age? definitely crazy stuff.
 
burrocrat said:
sorry to hijack your thread whipsaw, but this will only take a second...

so if the lending rate is -0.40% (minus) and you borrow $100,000 then you could pay back $99,600 and be clear of the loan? and pocket +$400? i would make as many loans to myself as often as i could, all day long. what is this negative interest rate thing all about? who is trying to accomplish what here?

those are some heavy things to think about. kind of like staring at one of those escher drawerings of the person seeing themselves in the mirror in the mirror in the mirror...

ad infinitum. crazy stuff. and this is acceptable fiscal policy in this day and age? definitely crazy stuff.
Click to expand...

I've not dug into this negative interest rate thing, though I believe it applies to money sitting in an interest bearing account; essentially one is paying to keep their money 'safe.' So, folks/organizations with assets are being penalized for not putting their assets at risk. Objective to push that money into some investment that creates economic activity, or under a mattress (hence the move to eliminate $100 bills, or cash altogether).
 
I'm no expert but I expect a downside after the Fed meeting on the 16th, wish I could say I know the timing better but that's what I expect. I've been following this event closely for about 4 months now and I know I have been ultra conservative to the tune of losing out on some gains BUT, I know more now than I did in 2008 and I didn't want a surprise. So far, I have been very impressed by many of the "better" TA and EW analysts. Their thoughts have aligned closely to what's actually transpired since mid-Feb.

Here's a picture of what I expect...but again WS, not certain on the timing. Could be late March or early April.

View attachment 37521

All the best.

FS
 
FS, thanks, that is a scary chart. With the easing in Europe and NZ looks like we're heading back up again, of course, oil can poke its head up again and throw water on any advance like it did yesterday. Holding position at this point, optimistic to get above my buy in over the next week. With the rate cuts, etc., is the major pull back still in the cards?
 
Concur WS. Upside is likely around the 2020 region. I will be surprised if it goes much higher....but we live in a world of surprises. My guess is that the big boys will have sucked in all the easy money by then but it could go higher if there is more easy money to be had. Lots of people from the sidelines jumping in right now. The NYSE bullish index is about at 60%...pretty high. No idea what news event will start the pullback but I expect something substantial...N. Korea, Greece, Brexit, rate increase, bad China data, bad Japan data, bad EU data, all of the above?

FS
 
Hanging on for this rocket ride! :D Or, I've got a very large and ornery tiger by the tail! :worried: Held on through the drop and now riding, hopefully to the top... any predictions on this rally's legs into next week?
 
Holding position for a few reasons; only 1 IFT left, I can rebalance or get out (If I get out, I'm done till April). Still need a few small tenths of a percent to break even on my move in, not being greedy but do need a percent or two for the month. JTH has an awesome price target going forward (staying long for the month). China easing concerns on economic slowdown; oil may have bottomed with easing supplies, futures up big; investors moving from safe havens to risk assets... Have a great weekend everyone! :D :D
 
Finally some signs of life in the S Fund... never ceases to amaze me, slip sliding away till 12:05pm, then off to the races! :rolleyes:
 
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