Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Whipsaw said:
I was basing the move on seeing more upside for tomorrow, possibly Friday, and Clester moving in; recognizing that this run may be closer to the end than the beginning. Then I saw JTH move out, todays action flatting and I stopped short... Oil is up big at the moment, should be more follow through tomorrow. Apologies for the false start, I should be less reactionary.
Click to expand...

No worries. :banana:
 
On the road to Hawaii Sunday... The time zone change makes for an early morning and watching the market before going to work. :)
 
Go to Pat's Punallu while you are there, if it's still open...Great Place! Have a fun and safe trip WS!

FS
 
Sharing from FS's thread... If this is on target, as the DeMark article appears to be, dabbling in this market may be pure folly.

Warning with a Capital "W" | Hussman Funds | February 15, 2016

That aside, Longboard is good beer! Looking to check out the surf on the North Shore, the last few days have been closed to visitors as the waves have been in the 60 ft range and hammering the shore and the roads. Need to find that food truck from 5-O... :)
 
Thanks Tsunami! I was here in 2000 and stayed at the Ilikai, I could see the 'Gilligan's Island' marina from my room. Would certainly be fun to walk around that Kualoa ranch. As it goes, I did make it to the North Shore and Haleiwa. Saw some surfers in the big waves, a couple of Pacific Black Sea Turtles resting on the beach, and got a hula dog! :cool:

Pacific Black Sea Turtle | Sea Turtle, Inc
 
Cool, what a coinkidink, my wife and I stayed at a condo rental at the Illikai (the newer tower) last May on our 20th anniversary trip. One of the highlights of our 5 days on Oahu, besides taking my Navy veteran wife to Pearl Harbor on Memorial Day weekend, was a long walk along Waimanalo Beach, which by chance was named the best beach in the U.S. the day before. We drove by the north shore but it was just an unending sea of parked cars with no open spaces for mile after mile. Like most places in the U.S., overpopulation on Oahu is spoiling the way life used to be. Rush hour traffic in Honolulu is insane.

Pics from that leg of our trip: https://goo.gl/photos/JhrwLYiQ6QmZz94Y7 (last summer I posted links to the Maui and Big Island legs of the trip)
We had great views of the fireworks show at the Hilton, and the floating lantern ceremony on Memorial Day. We avoided the mobs and just watching from the lanai and on TV.

Glad you're having fun.
 
Well... before heading out for work... the market is up, JTH and Clester have fresh buys on their systems, the Ark, and MJR have been on a buy. US Q4 GDP growth 'unexpectedly' revised up (that always makes me suspicious of someone cooking the books, that aside), some of those big market prognosticators are calling for a down market in March. Oil is still in play, as are many of the global fundamentals (China...?), what is the next news bite to move the market, another fed hike? Looking at the charts, there is the open gap, and we are at a recent high, I'm guessing we head down and close the gap, so jumping in now would be 'buying high'; we won't get there for the beginning of the month, so therefore no extra IFT for March. The beginnings of the month have been met with downward action of late. So... part of me (probably irrationally) thinks we could continue higher (similar to after the second low last summer), another part thinks we need to make another low (closing the gap). I feel bullish, therefore, as my own contrarian indicator as the tie breaker, I'm going to stay put for now. :-/
 
I'm feeling bullish also WS....but with a trigger finger on the sell button (also really asking myself if a limited 3-4% is worth the risk because of where we are). Think there is a good chance we pullback to 1880-1870 (which is what I thought we'd do on Wednesday, and then SPX drifts up to 2000-2020. My guess is that is it will be down for Monday and choppy for Tuesday and that this rally is all over before March 10th (because of central bank actions).

FS
 
I was just reading a market blog. One of the guys made this comment: "McClellan model is calling for a top 3/1-3/4. However, I want to remind everyone the ugly drop in Aug came a few days earlier than model expected so 1963 could be it a few days early."
I am very greatful for having such well presented market information available to me. It's makes me realize that while there are strong reasons to pursue this rally, there are equally strong reasons not to. Just one more thought. SPX has breached the 50dma. If it pulls back below it on Monday...that would be a sell signal. Here are a couple of pictures that show both sides:

BULL SCENARIO:

View attachment 37316

BEAR SCENARIO:

View attachment 37314

BOTH SCENARIOS:

View attachment 37315

FS
 
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I feel like I'm in the same funk I was in when the 'Hindenburg Omens' were being thrown around a year or so ago. There has been so much talk of the shaky fundamentals of the markets, oil down, associated risk to the banks based on loans for energy development, China economic slow down, global economic slow down, the market has another 30% drop coming... and then nothing, up it goes, climbing the wall of worry. Is the bottom in for the time being? :-/ Is that 30% drop still on the table?
 
Whipsaw said:
I feel like I'm in the same funk I was in when the 'Hindenburg Omens' were being thrown around a year or so ago. There has been so much talk of the shaky fundamentals of the markets, oil down, associated risk to the banks based on loans for energy development, China economic slow down, global economic slow down, the market has another 30% drop coming... and then nothing, up it goes, climbing the wall of worry. Is the bottom in for the time being? :-/ Is that 30% drop still on the table?
Click to expand...

It would appear the market has us leaning the wrong way once again.

I read an interesting article in the business section of my local newspaper this weekend (yes, I'm old fashioned, I still get a newspaper delivered to my doorstep). The article was titled "The Worst Investing Mistakes". In the article there was a quote from Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management in speaking about the talking heads on business cable TV and radio. In the article he said "I can tell you from my personal experience that most of them haven't the slightest idea what they are talking about. The general advice they give is for entertainment purposes only. Market experts know nothing about you, your portfolio or your risk tolerance. Their forecasts amount to nothing more than marketing. Treat them that way."

With that said, there are as many pie in the sky types as there are the sky is falling folks. I think the best thing is to learn as much as you can about reading charts and develop a strategy that works for you.
 
Ok, so here's my justification for standing pat: Slow Stochastics are around 90 for both the S&P (C Fund) and DWCPF (S Fund). With yesterdays close, candles on both charts are at or near the upper bollenger bands. In addition, yesterday both the C and S Funds took out the February highs.

I've seen this movie before. This is where the scary music starts and then the bottom drops out. With that said, I remain 85% G Fund, 15% F fund. We may ride this thing up a little higher, perhaps to the 200 EMA, but I don't think the risk is worth the reward. So I'll just stand pat at this point and wait for the Leprechaun to deliver a pot of gold later this month... :popcorn:

Your thoughts?
 
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