What do you think the market will do when the short selling ban ends?

[bombman32]

I was just wondering what everyone thinks may happen when the short selling ban is lifted. It looks like the first opportunity for this to happen is on 2 Oct at which time the ban may be lifted or extended for 30 days.

I was thinking it may spark a big sell off and was contemplating a strategy of getting all in on the G-fund around 30 September if it looks like the ban will be lifted in anticipation of a sell off? This would get me out of the market in a timely manner and preserve my two IFT's for October. What are your thoughts?

 

[Birchtree]

You take your chances....

 

[JTH]

There are too many variables to deal with right now. If they do the bailout at the same time they release the leash on the shorts, then it may have no effect at all.

IMHO now is not the time to be a hero and there isn't anything wrong with sitting on the sidelines and waiting for confirmation of a direction.

 

[Show-me]

When the ban is lifted, short, short, short. Ain't nothing going to make this situation go away. Just small degrees of damage control.

 

[Birchtree]

Knowing what I know if I were short this market would put the fear of Allah in me. The caps will be extended and the nakeds better produce shares or they are toast.

 

[hessian]

I was thinking it may spark a big sell off and was contemplating a strategy of getting all in on the G-fund around 30 September if it looks like the ban will be lifted in anticipation of a sell off? This would get me out of the market in a timely manner and preserve my two IFT's for October. What are your thoughts?

bombman,
Another perspective is that once the ban is lifted that no problems arise! IMO, problems haven't ever been the result of the naked shorts, and there's never been anything to it in the first place - it may show its actually been a healthy part of a free-market! :blink:

 

[Silverbird]

I see nothing wrong with shorting if you keep your clothes on.:cheesy: If you are not willing to put up with some risk, you shouldn't get to play.

 

[amoeba]

Hard to say:

I remember some maneuvers mentioned on CNBC that are almost the same thing as shorting, that still could be done, so it may be doing nothing now, other than making it somewhat less convenient than the ETF short funds.

I see far too much resistance to a bailout, from both party representatives, especially republicans, and widespread public dissent on both sides.

The other problem is that a bailout, even if it came, solves nothing. It would be a great selling opportunity. Expect the S&P to top 1,250 if that (i.e., the bailout) happens in next few biz days, then crater below 1,000 after the next few months of negative job growth and lame holiday sales.

I'll be in G and F fund. Lots of luck.

 

[nnuut]

Naked Short Selling should be stopped. It's like pouring Gas on a fire if a company hits hard times, with no risk to the Crook (trader). Do away with that one and we should be better!!View attachment 4747

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

I think this is a smoke screen being barked loudly by the dogs who are really stealing your money. They never expose their methods, and would never expose someone else's successful methods, because they would first understand them and then employ them. That's the way it is on the street.

People who sell short make some money on some trades and lose money on others, just like everyone else. However, they have unlimited risk, unlike others.

This is just my opinion, and I would never be all that concerned about that which is public knowledge.

BTW, I am fully 100% long for the first time in I simply cannot remember. Looking for an I/T bullish advance.

USGGE

 

[bombman32]

Thanks to all those who replied, I just kind of wanted to get a sense of what other folks out there were thinking and open a line of discussion on this topic. This market is so hard to read these days, (not that it was all that easy before), and so many of the moves up and down have been counter intuitive and extreme in regards to historical moves. I think it says something about the times when a 200 point or more move in the market no longer seems to be such a big deal!

Aside from the bailout, the short ban is/was looking like it could be the catalyst for some potential big moves at the end of this month or as Hessian and others said, no moves at all. Lately it seems the more I read and research the more confusing and uncertain it becomes Nature of the beast I suppose.

Anyway this coming week will answer a lot of the short term questions as it appears there is a deal on the bailout and if nothing else it will probably continue to be "interesting". I probably should have retreated to the G/F earlier this month but with any luck we'll get a nice bounce and a opportunity to lock in some gains as the roller coaster continues.

Good luck to all -

 

[Show-me]

I find it interesting that even with the shorting ban we are still seeing big sell offs on some financials.

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

Interesting isn't the word I'm thinking of.
Sickening is the word.
Perhaps shameful.
Perhaps disgusting.

Last year in October the sky was the limit and the markets would never stop going up. Now look what's happening.

USGGE

Thanks to all those who replied, I just kind of wanted to get a sense of what other folks out there were thinking and open a line of discussion on this topic. This market is so hard to read these days, (not that it was all that easy before), and so many of the moves up and down have been counter intuitive and extreme in regards to historical moves. I think it says something about the times when a 200 point or more move in the market no longer seems to be such a big deal!

Aside from the bailout, the short ban is/was looking like it could be the catalyst for some potential big moves at the end of this month or as Hessian and others said, no moves at all. Lately it seems the more I read and research the more confusing and uncertain it becomes Nature of the beast I suppose.

Anyway this coming week will answer a lot of the short term questions as it appears there is a deal on the bailout and if nothing else it will probably continue to be "interesting". I probably should have retreated to the G/F earlier this month but with any luck we'll get a nice bounce and a opportunity to lock in some gains as the roller coaster continues.

Good luck to all -

 

[bombman32]

I'll most assuredly second that - as part of the "bailout" it would be nice to see a few choice indictments handed down too

Interesting isn't the word I'm thinking of.
Sickening is the word.
Perhaps shameful.
Perhaps disgusting.

Last year in October the sky was the limit and the markets would never stop going up. Now look what's happening.

USGGE

 

[Silverbird]

I'll most assuredly second that - as part of the "bailout" it would be nice to see a few choice indictments handed down too

I hear that the attempts to amend the bill to include investigating any company applying for the loans was quashed by certain free market fans who believed it was a veiled attempt to start a witchhunt that would excuse over-regulation of the market and socialist policies to rebalance the economy away from "evil fatcats" toward "the begger freeloaders" (stereotypes in quotes). And Paulson said that this would stop any company from wanting a loan, which led to a snarky comment from my (Republican Fiscal Conservative) husband about that only proving they all had something to hide.

This doesn't mean, however, that the FBI won't keep investigations going after this bill passes.

 

[Silverbird]

Ah, they did slip something in on enforcement"
1

​

SEC. 127. COOPERATION WITH THE FBI.

2 Any Federal financial regulatory agency shall cooper​

3ate with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other

4 law enforcement agencies investigating fraud, misrepre​

5 sentation, and malfeasance with respect to development,

6 advertising, and sale of financial products.​

 

[Gumby]

I find it interesting that even with the shorting ban we are still seeing big sell offs on some financials.

Just think of the momentum downward if the shorts could work on the financials today. I would have shorted MS and GS at the open. Oh well, woulda coulda shoulda, but Comradeski Pualson and Cox wouldn't let me. :nuts:

 

[bombman32]

From the looks of todays market, it seems the short selling ban is a moot point. Failure of the bailout this morning pushed the Dow down an amazing 700+ points! What a ride, nothing like watching +5% of your money vanish in an instant

It might be a good time to buy, if you have a strong stomach and nerves of steel, but like everyone else I'm really wondering where the bottom is going to end up and the nerves are getting raw and the stomach queasy.

Some of the "experts" and doomsayers are touting a Dow @ 8000 in the next month or two but with the way things have been going with the banks and other big financials crashing one after the other it could be a matter of days.

Oh well, I'm going to try and hang on a few more days and see if we get a bounce back above 11000. If so, I think it will be time to retreat to the sidelines again until some of the dust settles.

As for my earlier comment on wanting to see some indictments handed down, I by no means advocate a witch hunt but there has to be some accountability out there especially with all the mega-financial firms that are the core of our economy. I believe in the free market system but without oversight and regulation greed will, (as we have seen), run rampant to the detriment of everyone and everything.

 

[Elgallo]

"""Some of the "experts" and doomsayers are touting a Dow @ 8000 in the next month or two """

Jim Cramer was making this point on Friday last. He may be right! He called the recent fiasco over a year ago.

Silent run on the banks is occuring also, but no ones talkin about it. Cramer says he knows no one with mega money who owns any equities.

 

[James48843]

"""Some of the "experts" and doomsayers are touting a Dow @ 8000 in the next month or two """

Jim Cramer was making this point on Friday last. He may be right! He called the recent fiasco over a year ago.

Wasn't that the same Jim Cramer who, a couple weeks ago, called it a bottom, and said stocks were about to move higher?