What do you think, F fund's future?

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2manyirons

New member
Does anyone have any predictions for the F Fund, this summer. I'm interested in what indicators people are watching to know when to move. Isn't it the best fund to be in in the summer, or is this summer different? I know I missed the boat to some extent.
 
It has had a nice run up already. I would wait for stocks to trick more folks into buying for a summer rally before getting into F fund.
 
You couldn't give me the F fund for free - bonds are in a bubble waiting to burst. The first sense of good news will roll bonds like a boulder going down hill. Nope, too dangerous for me. When all that cash starts to move it's headed for equities even long before interest rates begin to creep up.
 
Birchtree said:
You couldn't give me the F fund for free - bonds are in a bubble waiting to burst. The first sense of good news will roll bonds like a boulder going down hill. Nope, too dangerous for me. When all that cash starts to move it's headed for equities even long before interest rates begin to creep up.
Click to expand...

Agreed- at an all time high.
 
I tend to gamble BIG, I think the F fund is a safe fund, but It still "loses". I like the G fund for safety. Here is an article from fox business (sentiment met on usatoday and bloomberg) basically I think we have a week left of gains starting monday after that I think the decline due to negativity comes back. here are the key parts of the article.


"Investors will be looking to see if this week’s stock market rally can be sustained via strong company earnings reports as the second quarter reporting season kicks off.
Dow Jones Industrial staple Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.94, 0.23, 2.15%) opens the earnings season on Monday.
Little to no signs of inflation are expected when the U.S. government issues its June producer price and [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]consumer [COLOR=blue !important]price [/COLOR][COLOR=blue !important]indexes[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR] Thursday and next Friday, respectively.
Meanwhile, the financial reform bill could go to the whole Senate for a vote next week as Congress returns from its recess.

Investors will be looking to see if this week’s stock market rally can be sustained via strong company earnings reports as the second quarter reporting season kicks off.
Dow Jones Industrial staple Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.94, 0.23, 2.15%) opens the earnings season on Monday.
Little to no signs of inflation are expected when the U.S. government issues its June producer price and [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]consumer [COLOR=blue !important]price [/COLOR][COLOR=blue !important]indexes[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR] Thursday and next Friday, respectively.
Meanwhile, the financial reform bill could go to the whole Senate for a vote next week as Congress returns from its recess.
Second-quarter results are likely to show companies continue to mend their bottom lines while struggling with cautious consumers, tougher comparisons and unfavorable currency fluctuations.ntinue to mend their bottom lines while struggling with cautious consumers, tougher comparisons and unfavorable currency fluctuations.


Aluminum giant Alcoa reports Monday afternoon, followed later in the week by semiconductor maker Intel Corp. (INTC: 20.24, 0.14, 0.7%), search-engine giant Google Inc. (GOOG: 467.49, 10.93, 2.39%) and conglomerate General Electric Co. (GE: 14.94, 0.12, 0.81%). Also scheduled to report are large banks J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 38.88, 0.72, 1.89%), Citigroup Inc. (C: 4.03, 0.055, 1.38%) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 15.1, 0.24, 1.62%).
Semiconductor makers Intel and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD: 7.34, -0.02, -0.27%), which report Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, likely benefited from a continued recovery in demand for computers and other electronic devices in the latest quarter. Analysts predict both companies will swing to second-quarter profits as they compete to increase their market share."
 
The G-Fund hasn't been paying out enough to Justify avoiding the F-Fund. Despite what others think, let's look at the facts.

The F-Fund is beating all other funds YTD. As for the future and supposed bubble? Bubble is just another useless word that means nothing when you blindly throw it around. I suppose Gold has been in a bubble for the last 1000 years since it continues to go up too?

Let's stop the F-Fund trash talk and stick to the facts... Bonds are right, untill they aren't. Right now the Monthly, weekly, & Daily charts are Bullish. The Short term charts are pulling back, and will stop pulling back when stocks are ready to fall again. This is much the same pattern we've see over the last few years.
 
JTH said:
The G-Fund hasn't been paying out enough to Justify avoiding the F-Fund. Despite what others think, let's look at the facts.

The F-Fund is beating all other funds YTD. As for the future and supposed bubble? Bubble is just another useless word that means nothing when you blindly throw it around. I suppose Gold has been in a bubble for the last 1000 years since it continues to go up too?

Let's stop the F-Fund trash talk and stick to the facts... Bonds are right, untill they aren't. Right now the Monthly, weekly, & Daily charts are Bullish. The Short term charts are pulling back, and will stop pulling back when stocks are ready to fall again. This is much the same pattern we've see over the last few years.
Click to expand...

But here too again, if you look at some of the top % winners on the autotracker, the technic is 100% S back to 100% G, I guess it depends on your strategy. Wanna play it safe then sure look at the F fund. but no guts no glory. Hey it's only money right? I understand alot of folks like to "diversify" and if that were my strategy I would definately look at the F fund. It has outperformed all other funds, even if they are marginal gains. as I said, jumping in and out is a guts to glory strategy, the thing is, to know "when" to jump!
 
Birchtree said:
You couldn't give me the F fund for free - bonds are in a bubble waiting to burst. The first sense of good news will roll bonds like a boulder going down hill. Nope, too dangerous for me. When all that cash starts to move it's headed for equities even long before interest rates begin to creep up.
Click to expand...

I heard that there is someone considered to be THE guru of bonds. It is being said that he moved away from bonds into some other investment. I am staying with the F fund for now for several reasons. (1) they are very short term investments which insulates the damage that can result from longer term bond investments. (2) I dont see any good news on the horizon and I believe if we do see some it will be very short term. The trend is one bad thing after another. (3) If history holds true as we see it has for decades the F fund will not hurt us. Even if this bubble (if you want to call it that) bursts the effect is not like you would see with stocks. The G fund is almost doing nothing for our investments.

That's my two cents, whoops make it 3 cents the F fund went up again! :)
 
TSP4ME said:
I heard that there is someone considered to be THE guru of bonds. It is being said that he moved away from bonds into some other investment. I am staying with the F fund for now for several reasons. (1) they are very short term investments which insulates the damage that can result from longer term bond investments. (2) I dont see any good news on the horizon and I believe if we do see some it will be very short term. The trend is one bad thing after another. (3) If history holds true as we see it has for decades the F fund will not hurt us. Even if this bubble (if you want to call it that) bursts the effect is not like you would see with stocks. The G fund is almost doing nothing for our investments.

That's my two cents, whoops make it 3 cents the F fund went up again! :)
Click to expand...


Great first post!!!

My take on the F-Fund is simple. It's a great place to be when you need to be conservative and fight the falling dollar. But it does have it's problems too, when it falls, it often falls so fast that we won't have time to make an exit before the majority of damage is done.

I also happen to think if you haven't establish a solid base, then you should be far more concerned with share accumulation and less concerned with safety.
 
Bond Bubble Inflating Faster Than Dotcom

Analysis from one Wall Street strategist shows that the pace of money flowing into bonds is faster at this stage than the infamous dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. And that's not necessarily bad news for those Treasury investors.

more

Is any investment safe????? Interesting points tho'!!!:cool:
 
I'd post this in Bullitt's QEII thread, but the content has implications for the F fund, so thought it should be available for people to reference further on down the road. All except Birch of course, he avoids F with a passion.

The Fed intends to concentrate the current bond buying program in the intermediate sector of 5 to 10-year maturities.
Right now the Fed’s balance sheet shows about $57 billion in total capital. QEII will take total assets above $3 trillion. At that level, it only takes a 2% drop in the average value of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet for the Fed to go bankrupt. And this is in an environment where various markets frequently go up and down 3% in a single day.

the decline in price of a bond in response to a 1 basis point increase in rates is greater when rates are at 1% than if they are at 5%. This element of volatility is independent of the fact that longer maturities are more volatile,

here’s the bottom line on QE II. If nothing happens, the whole thing was a waste of time. If inflation takes off, the Fed will have to choose between holding bonds and letting inflation get worse or selling bonds and going bankrupt in the process.

Since no entity goes down without a fight, the Fed will naturally hold the bonds and let inflation take off.
Click to expand...

F fund prices would stay up in that scenario-if I understand the mechanics, meanwhile unemployment rages and wages remain stagnant and prices on necessities scream upwards.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn.../11/5_Jim_Rickards_-_Fed_May_Go_Bankrupt.html
 
Current assets are about $2.3 trillion.
Click to expand...
from the same article posted earlier. was trying not to quote too much of the article-copyright issues, you know. read the article.

"Current assets" are not the same thing as "capital". Current Assets include debt owned = treasuries purchased=LOTS. treasuries sold in any substantial amounts=interest rates go up. rates increase>2%=Fed go boom at this point. Fed won't sell, fed won't go boom, what the article said.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn.../11/5_Jim_Rickards_-_Fed_May_Go_Bankrupt.html
 
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I think F Fund's future is most centrally grounded in China.

On the whole its history of being the most 'guaranteed investment' has made it extremely attractive. The 'F Fund' Bond Yeilds have no other choice but to reflect the reality of our Economic Conditions and thus their yeilds have been 'mimimal'.

The USA will not go down without a fight - and that would have to include 'raising the Bond Yeilds' - to generate more income.

For Bonds in general -- there are many good investment opportunities.
 
Trying to read the story at finance.yahoo.com about bonds.\


Story is unreachable....404

Can anyone read this story or post a good link?

Top Stories

Surge of Money From Bonds Could Stifle Lending- AP Americans are leaving bond mutual funds at the fastest rate in more than two years. U.S. investors pulled $8.6 billion out of bond funds in the week ended Dec. 15, the largest withdrawal since October 2008 when financial markets were in free-fall.
 
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