What do you think about going to F-fund?

[Guest]

imported post

What do you think the F-fund will do between now and August?

What would happen to the F-fund if the DOW went to 7000?

Thanks

 

[Guest]

imported post

bump

 

[Spaf]

imported post

If the FED was lowering rates the F - fund might be OK!

Check out the returns at TSP: http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-current.html

 

[Guest]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

If the FED was lowering rates the F - fund might be OK!

Check out the returns at TSP: http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-current.html

As stocks were tanking last week, the F-fund was going up.

 

[Guest]

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Treasury yields hit 8-week lows, Fed pause pondered
Fri Apr 15, 2005 04:54 PM ET

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt yields slid to near two-month lows on Friday as more bad news on the economy bolstered hopes the Federal Reserve might eventually take a break from raising interest rates.

On Wall Street, a battered Dow Jones industrial average ended down nearly 2 percent on the day, carving out over five-month lows on soft earnings from IBM (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , spurred even greater interest in government bonds.

A drop in consumer confidence and a weak manufacturing report only reinforced budding expectations for slower economic growth, which could give policymakers some breathing room in tightening monetary policy.

"If the economy slows dramatically in the second quarter and employment growth really falls away then the Fed may even consider pausing later this summer," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

That prospect boosted the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 21/32 in price for a yield of 4.24 percent, down nearly a quarter-percentage point from just a week ago. Yields hit 4.23 percent at one point, their lowest since Feb. 24.

Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 10/32 at a yield of 3.87 percent, down from 3.94 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 1-12/32 to yield 4.59 percent, down from 4.67 percent.

Two-year note yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged down to 3.50 percent from 3.56 percent, reflecting the increasingly benign outlook for interest rates.

In a market that had been laden with bets on a further downturn in prices -- known as short positions -- the upward swing in government debt took on a momentum of its own as those previously short scrambled to change their minds.

A jump in rate futures on Friday indicated a small chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes as soon as June. Futures now show a year-end Fed funds rate of under 3.75 percent.

Consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in over 1-1/2 years in April, the University of Michigan said.

On the back of soft retail figures released earlier in the week, the data was sufficiently poor to suggest consumers are retrenching in the face of higher gasoline prices.

Michigan's April index fell to 88.7 from 92.6 in March, its fourth consecutive decline. Views on expectations and current conditions also worsened considerably.

An added bonus for bonds, factory activity in New York state eased to its slowest clip in two years. The regional Fed's gauge of manufacturing plunged ot 3.12 in April from 20.18 in March.

General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was certainly baring the brunt of the softness in consumption. The automotive giant said it would post its steepest quarterly loss since 1992, when the industrial icon tipped close to bankruptcy. That forced a widening of credit spreads and gave a further bid to Treasuries.

For those thinking it was all smooth sailing for bonds from here on out, traders had a word of caution -- everything could change next week as key releases on inflation offer clues into the effect of higher oil costs on overall prices.

If inflation does in fact appear to be marching higher, analysts said, bonds could very well unwind the entire week's worth of gains.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Treasury yields hit 8-week lows, Fed pause pondered
Fri Apr 15, 2005 04:54 PM ET

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt yields slid to near two-month lows on Friday as more bad news on the economy bolstered hopes the Federal Reserve might eventually take a break from raising interest rates.

On Wall Street, a battered Dow Jones industrial average ended down nearly 2 percent on the day, carving out over five-month lows on soft earnings from IBM (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , spurred even greater interest in government bonds.

A drop in consumer confidence and a weak manufacturing report only reinforced budding expectations for slower economic growth, which could give policymakers some breathing room in tightening monetary policy.

"If the economy slows dramatically in the second quarter and employment growth really falls away then the Fed may even consider pausing later this summer," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

That prospect boosted the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 21/32 in price for a yield of 4.24 percent, down nearly a quarter-percentage point from just a week ago. Yields hit 4.23 percent at one point, their lowest since Feb. 24.

Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 10/32 at a yield of 3.87 percent, down from 3.94 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 1-12/32 to yield 4.59 percent, down from 4.67 percent.

Two-year note yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged down to 3.50 percent from 3.56 percent, reflecting the increasingly benign outlook for interest rates.

In a market that had been laden with bets on a further downturn in prices -- known as short positions -- the upward swing in government debt took on a momentum of its own as those previously short scrambled to change their minds.

A jump in rate futures on Friday indicated a small chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes as soon as June. Futures now show a year-end Fed funds rate of under 3.75 percent.

Consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in over 1-1/2 years in April, the University of Michigan said.

On the back of soft retail figures released earlier in the week, the data was sufficiently poor to suggest consumers are retrenching in the face of higher gasoline prices.

Michigan's April index fell to 88.7 from 92.6 in March, its fourth consecutive decline. Views on expectations and current conditions also worsened considerably.

An added bonus for bonds, factory activity in New York state eased to its slowest clip in two years. The regional Fed's gauge of manufacturing plunged ot 3.12 in April from 20.18 in March.

General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was certainly baring the brunt of the softness in consumption. The automotive giant said it would post its steepest quarterly loss since 1992, when the industrial icon tipped close to bankruptcy. That forced a widening of credit spreads and gave a further bid to Treasuries.

For those thinking it was all smooth sailing for bonds from here on out, traders had a word of caution -- everything could change next week as key releases on inflation offer clues into the effect of higher oil costs on overall prices.

If inflation does in fact appear to be marching higher, analysts said, bonds could very well unwind the entire week's worth of gains.