We're Still Green

Early weakness gives way to gains again. See a theme here? Yes, this market is due for some selling, but buyers keep jumping in before any real damage is done. It's possible that this could continue longer than some might think. That's not a bullish statement by me, I'm neutral and simply watching the charts.

Earnings season has started, but it's way too early to know how the market is going to trade in reaction the results as company reports start to pile up in the coming weeks. The S&P did not quite make it to the 1200 level today, and it would seem we'll get there given the underlying resilience of this market. Maybe tomorrow? The VIX actually moved 3.5% higher today, after hitting a multiyear low yesterday.

Here's today's charts:

NAMO.jpg

Not much activity here. Still hovering around zero. One buy and one sell.

NAHL.jpg

Both NAHL and NYHL flipped back to sells today, but that's not a problem at the moment.

TRIN.jpg

TRIN flipped to a sell while TRINQ actually turned down a bit, triggering a buy. That's a bit odd, but still not an issue.

BPCOMPQ.jpg

BPCOMPQ has pushed past 70 on the chart, which officially puts the Nasdaq in overbought territory. A concern? No. We've seen it linger above 70 for weeks during Aug - Oct last year. But if it turns down in noteworthy fashion I may start thinking about a defensive position. But for now, it's still bullish.

So we have 3 of 7 signals on a buy, which keeps the system on a buy. Even though some of the signals rolled over today, market action was not particularly bearish. The bears might think the market looks tired, while the bulls will point out how it keeps coming back to new highs. And the trend has been up. So for now stocks get a green light.

Hope you're trading well. See you tomorrow.
 
CH,

Is there any way to figure out if the late buys are the smart money or dumb money like me?

I like the upturn at the end, but maybe da Boyz have figured out the patter we were reading. Maybe they are the early sells.
 
Boghie;bt1321 said:
CH,

Is there any way to figure out if the late buys are the smart money or dumb money like me?

I like the upturn at the end, but maybe da Boyz have figured out the patter we were reading. Maybe they are the early sells.

There was some volume at the end. INTC related? INTC is trading 3.7% higher after the close following fiscal first quarter earnings results. Also, the company issued revenue guidance, which is above the current consensus.
 
CH,

Is high volume the signal for da Boyz buying?

Or, is it a signal that the individual investor is buying?

I don't know a way to separate da Boyz from the rest of us.
 
Boghie;bt1323 said:
CH,

Is high volume the signal for da Boyz buying?

Or, is it a signal that the individual investor is buying?

I don't know a way to separate da Boyz from the rest of us.

My guess is it's institutional buying. Most of the action in this market is from big money. But I don't analyze volume dynamics. There are ways to get a more specific idea where it's coming from though. Maybe someone else can chime it?
 
joylynn;bt1325 said:
Hi Coolhand,
From here are you looking at the F fund?
Joy Lynn

I did. It looks like it may be a good play, but I don't know for how long. We had some selling pressure recently that caught me off-guard and I don't know if we can expect that to be short term or not.
 
The F fund is behaving pretty well this month. Have you found that bond prices are rising and will continue to rise?
 
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