Weekly Sentiment Update

Here's the updated Tracker charts showing how we're collectively positioned going into the new trading week.




The Top 50 new have about the same level of exposure to stocks that they have to bonds. And with cash levels over 46% that tells me we're not buying this rally or this economy.




The Total Tracker is similar, although there is more stock exposure and a bit less bond exposure. Still, it's the same message as the Top 50.



The Top 15 by contrast, are much more bullish, relatively speaking. Their bond exposure is a little under 14% and stock exposure is close to 57%. That's more than double the Top 50.

The average return for the tracker is 0.25%.
The average return for the Top 15 is 1.77%.
The average return for the Top 50 is 10.58%.

 

[alevin]

well, its comforting to know I'm at least "average". but CH, I don't get how the avg ret. of the top 15 can be so much lower than the avg ret. of the top 50? did you misplace a decimal pt.?

 

[coolhand]

well, its comforting to know I'm at least "average". but CH, I don't get how the avg ret. of the top 15 can be so much lower than the avg ret. of the top 50? did you misplace a decimal pt.?

I probably need an explanation posted somewhere so folks know how the Top 15 were selected.

The Top 15 are comprised of those TSPers who had better returns overall than most others over the 2 year period of 2007 and 2008. Some of them were selected right out of the Top 15 when I compiled those results. But not everyone was an active member on that list, so I had to select some folks as high as 32 on the list.

Again, the reason for that was to ensure the TSPers I was selecting were actively posting their positions. About half of those selected were in the Top 15 as compiled.

So far, the "experiment" with this particular list has not provided me with any "edge" that I can discern. I'll be looking to reformulate it when the final 2010 returns are posted.