Weekend Update

The bulls are back in charge after this past weeks action, but can it hold? I see higher prices ahead based on the Seven Sentinels and what I'm seeing in the tracker leads me to believe the charts are correct. Let's take a look:




The Top 50 are still very bearish, or at least cautious and probably not buying into a new bull run. Their collective stock allocation has been very conservative and we're quite a ways off the lows. Most of those Top 50 missed those gains and their reluctance to get invested tells me bearish outlooks are still common.




It's been subtle, but make no mistake the total tracker (which is 395 folks!) is trending bearish. Collectively we aren't buying the bull case and stock allocations continue to drop while cash levels rise.



The Top 15 are a much more difficult group to read and quite frankly I don't get much out of this chart. They aren't as bearish a group as the Top 50, but they're on the conservative side nonetheless.

Sentiment on this board based on what folks are doing is bearish and if we are beginning a new up-leg this is fuel for the bulls.

My main source of information will always remain what the SS charts are telling me, but I really like what I see in these tracker charts too.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

This is very interesting, CH. I think bonds are due for a collapse. They've gone parabolic over the past few months, and I don't ever recall folks on the tracker putting more money in the F fund than in either C or I. Your total tracker numbers are very helpful, I believe, as a contrarian indicator. By their nature, folks who sign up for the tracker are more aggressive than your average TSP investor. So when I see that less than half the tracker money is currently in stocks(!), I want to get very aggressive.

 

[coolhand]

This is very interesting, CH. I think bonds are due for a collapse. They've gone parabolic over the past few months, and I don't ever recall folks on the tracker putting more money in the F fund than in either C or I. Your total tracker numbers are very helpful, I believe, as a contrarian indicator. By their nature, folks who sign up for the tracker are more aggressive than your average TSP investor. So when I see that less than half the tracker money is currently in stocks(!), I want to get very aggressive.

Good observation on the bond allocation. I have no idea how the bond side of the market is going to play out, but based on the general consensus that inflation is probably still 2 or more years off, I'm not sure bonds will suffer any serious losses for the time being.

But that's just my perspective and not a prediction. It's the timing of it that's tough not the "if", but "when".

 

[ContrarianJeff]

I just noticed that the EFA is at the top of the bollinger band, and the dollar is coming down near support. I've been in the I fund for quite a while, so I'm going to get out for a short time. I wish I was in the S fund right now like you are. I'm expecting the SPX to go to 1145 or so before taking a breather.

 

[coolhand]

So you're going to wait for better prices next week? I noticed you went to G today.

I just noticed that the EFA is at the top of the bollinger band, and the dollar is coming down near support. I've been in the I fund for quite a while, so I'm going to get out for a short time. I wish I was in the S fund right now like you are. I'm expecting the SPX to go to 1145 or so before taking a breather.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

So you're going to wait for better prices next week? I noticed you went to G today.

Yeah, the limited IFT's per month drives me crazy--and this is one of those times where I really dislike it. If I had been in either C or S, I would have stayed put. But I definitely wanted to make a move out of the I fund today for the reasons above. So it was either cash or US equities. We're getting near my intermediate term target, so I just decided to cash out for now and see if we do some short term backing and filling.