Stay tuned, more stats will be coming out this week, we'll cover the entire Dec/Jan transition.
BLS Data: The Quarterly ECI - Employment Cost Index releases on Wednesday 10-Dec-2025, the normal release was set for October.
Statistically (on the surface) 4th Qrt ECI is the most stable of the four quarters, with all 3 sessions (Pre, ECI, Post) having a 58% win ratio.
♗ Weekly Recap
● WTD Overview: Risk-on week: SPX added +0.31% with gains shared by mid-caps, small caps, and global stocks; breadth stayed wide. Flows favored ETFs and cash while mutual funds saw equity outflows as long bonds sold off and volatility eased.
Key Takeaway: Long yields and the dollar now gate the regime; calmer yields plus a soft dollar would extend the risk-on bias.
$↗︎ Net Flows $↘︎ — Wednesday Series
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
♔ Equities
WTD Overview: SPX rose +0.31% as gains were modest but well shared across the index tiers. NDX and transports outpaced the broad index while global developed stocks and extended market funds kept pace.
Leaders & Relative Holds
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Mid-pack and small caps helped, with NDX +1.01% and transports near +3.60% cushioning any mega-cap softness.
● Breadth: Participation widened; mid-90 and bottom-403 trailed only slightly as small caps (VXF) gained +1.06% and ex-US (ACWX) added +0.72%.
Key Takeaway: As long as transports and small caps hold above recent ranges, dips in SPX look like pullback risk, not regime change.
♛ Barometer
WTD Overview: Short and long Treasuries fell as IGSB, IEF, and TLT slipped between −0.47% and −2.26%. The dollar (DXY) eased −0.49%; gold (IAU) dipped while copper (CPER) jumped +3.31% and BTC lost −1.74% as VIX sank −5.75%.
Hedges & Risk Bias
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. The curve cheapened at the long end, gold softened, industrial metals firmed, and the softer dollar kept global risk supported.
● Breadth: Safety trades were mixed; cyclic proxies like copper rallied while crypto faded; participation tilted toward offense with lower volatility.
Key Takeaway: A steady or easing long end plus contained volatility would confirm this risk-on shift; another sharp yield spike would test it.
♖ Sectors & Rotation
Weekly Sector Overview: Cyclicals led as tech and communication services advanced while defensives, especially utilities and health care, lagged sharply.
Offensive Assets
● Top WTD gainers: XLK +2.44%, XLE +1.53%, XLC +1.51% — growth plus energy leadership.
● Breadth/outperformance: Cyclicals outperformed SPX; participation widened with XLY +1.27% and XLI +0.58% joining the advance.
Defensive Assets
● Standout hedge/defense: XLU −4.46% and XLV −2.78% slumped as yield sensitivity weighed on classic defensives.
● Safety tone or drag: Staples, materials, and real estate (XLP, XLB, XLRE) all slipped, signaling little demand for traditional safety outside cash.
Key Takeaway: With cyclicals leading and defensives under pressure, the tape favors offense; a decisive bid for utilities or staples would flag a turn.
4–6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
● Primary: Early: cyclicals led; trend firm; breadth early tilt, pointing to a constructive, offense-favoring phase.
● ● Alternate: Mid: mixed spread; trend mixed; breadth neutral, leaving room for rotation without a clear defensive pivot.
● ● ● Confidence: Medium — trend lens is Early, breadth lens neutral, while timeframe readings still disagree.
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
Overview: Top-10 performance was mixed: some mega-caps rallied, others slipped, leaving a modest drag versus healthy breadth underneath.
Offensive Leaders
● Top movers: NVDA +3.06%, META +3.93%, TSLA +5.77% — semis and growth communication names drove upside.
● Secondary: Paired strength in GOOGL/GOOG and select growth kept the group from acting as a headwind.
Defensive Laggards
● Biggest decliners: MSFT −1.80%, AVGO −3.16%, BRK.B −1.84% eased after strong prior runs.
● Drag/reversal: The mix of strong and weak mega-caps points to rotation within leaders rather than a wholesale unwind at the top.
Key Takeaway: Leadership is still concentrated but less one-sided; rotation within the Top-10 supports a healthier tape if breadth stays firm.
Next Week’s Projection
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
● Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
BLS Data: The Quarterly ECI - Employment Cost Index releases on Wednesday 10-Dec-2025, the normal release was set for October.
- From the 80+ I have on record this is the first delay since Oct-2013, which was pushed to 19-Nov-2013.
- The 2013 delay was due to the partial federal government shutdown
- In this particular case, there was little impact on the S&P 500.
Statistically (on the surface) 4th Qrt ECI is the most stable of the four quarters, with all 3 sessions (Pre, ECI, Post) having a 58% win ratio.
- What does make 4th Qrt ECI special, within the 3-Session-Pocket (Pre-ECI, ECI, Post-ECI) many of those sessions were large movers exceeding ±1%.”
- For Context, About 26% of all 5040 sessions (20 years) exceed ±1%
- But within this 3-Session ECI Pocket, we have more ±1% than the 26% benchmark
- ECI 1st Qrt___42% (the largest mover)
- ECI 2nd Qrt___23% (slightly muted)
- ECI 3rd Qrt___27% (on par with the benchmark)
- ECI 4th Qrt___37% (Elevated)
♗ Weekly Recap
● WTD Overview: Risk-on week: SPX added +0.31% with gains shared by mid-caps, small caps, and global stocks; breadth stayed wide. Flows favored ETFs and cash while mutual funds saw equity outflows as long bonds sold off and volatility eased.
Key Takeaway: Long yields and the dollar now gate the regime; calmer yields plus a soft dollar would extend the risk-on bias.
$↗︎ Net Flows $↘︎ — Wednesday Series
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
| Box | Category | Weekly Flow | 4-wk Median Read | Risk Tone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Equity mutual funds | −$19.65B | Near | Risk-off/de-risking |
 | Bond mutual funds | −$1.34B | Below | Mixed/neutral |
 | ETFs (net issuance) | +$30.24B | Below | Risk-on/supportive |
| Combined MF + ETF | +$8.96B | Below | Mixed: ETF bid, MF drag |
| Money market funds | +$86.82B to $7.65T | Above | Risk-off/de-risking (cash build) |
♔ Equities
WTD Overview: SPX rose +0.31% as gains were modest but well shared across the index tiers. NDX and transports outpaced the broad index while global developed stocks and extended market funds kept pace.
Leaders & Relative Holds
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Mid-pack and small caps helped, with NDX +1.01% and transports near +3.60% cushioning any mega-cap softness.
● Breadth: Participation widened; mid-90 and bottom-403 trailed only slightly as small caps (VXF) gained +1.06% and ex-US (ACWX) added +0.72%.
Key Takeaway: As long as transports and small caps hold above recent ranges, dips in SPX look like pullback risk, not regime change.♛ Barometer
WTD Overview: Short and long Treasuries fell as IGSB, IEF, and TLT slipped between −0.47% and −2.26%. The dollar (DXY) eased −0.49%; gold (IAU) dipped while copper (CPER) jumped +3.31% and BTC lost −1.74% as VIX sank −5.75%.
Hedges & Risk Bias
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. The curve cheapened at the long end, gold softened, industrial metals firmed, and the softer dollar kept global risk supported.
● Breadth: Safety trades were mixed; cyclic proxies like copper rallied while crypto faded; participation tilted toward offense with lower volatility.
Key Takeaway: A steady or easing long end plus contained volatility would confirm this risk-on shift; another sharp yield spike would test it.♖ Sectors & Rotation
Weekly Sector Overview: Cyclicals led as tech and communication services advanced while defensives, especially utilities and health care, lagged sharply.
Offensive Assets
● Top WTD gainers: XLK +2.44%, XLE +1.53%, XLC +1.51% — growth plus energy leadership.
● Breadth/outperformance: Cyclicals outperformed SPX; participation widened with XLY +1.27% and XLI +0.58% joining the advance.
Defensive Assets
● Standout hedge/defense: XLU −4.46% and XLV −2.78% slumped as yield sensitivity weighed on classic defensives.
● Safety tone or drag: Staples, materials, and real estate (XLP, XLB, XLRE) all slipped, signaling little demand for traditional safety outside cash.
Key Takeaway: With cyclicals leading and defensives under pressure, the tape favors offense; a decisive bid for utilities or staples would flag a turn.4–6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
● Primary: Early: cyclicals led; trend firm; breadth early tilt, pointing to a constructive, offense-favoring phase.
● ● Alternate: Mid: mixed spread; trend mixed; breadth neutral, leaving room for rotation without a clear defensive pivot.
● ● ● Confidence: Medium — trend lens is Early, breadth lens neutral, while timeframe readings still disagree.
| Box | Bias | Probability | Narrative (4–6 Week Horizon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 65% | If cyclicals and tech keep leading while volatility stays calm and the dollar stays soft, then indexes grind higher. |
| Sideways | 18% | If long yields stay choppy and sector leadership rotates, then the index moves sideways in a tight, noisy range. |
| Down | 17% | If long yields jump and defensives regain leadership, then indexes pull back as cash demand rises. |
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
Overview: Top-10 performance was mixed: some mega-caps rallied, others slipped, leaving a modest drag versus healthy breadth underneath.
Offensive Leaders
● Top movers: NVDA +3.06%, META +3.93%, TSLA +5.77% — semis and growth communication names drove upside.
● Secondary: Paired strength in GOOGL/GOOG and select growth kept the group from acting as a headwind.
Defensive Laggards
● Biggest decliners: MSFT −1.80%, AVGO −3.16%, BRK.B −1.84% eased after strong prior runs.
● Drag/reversal: The mix of strong and weak mega-caps points to rotation within leaders rather than a wholesale unwind at the top.
Key Takeaway: Leadership is still concentrated but less one-sided; rotation within the Top-10 supports a healthier tape if breadth stays firm. Next Week’s Projection| Scenario | Probability | Evidence (Weekly-Based, conditional) |
|---|---|---|
| Mild Drift Higher | 45% | If long yields stabilize, the dollar stays soft, and cyclicals lead, then SPX drifts modestly higher next week. |
| Sideways (±0.5%) | 30% | If yields stay choppy and sector leadership rotates daily, then SPX trades sideways in a tight range next week. |
| Pullback (>−1%) | 25% | If long yields jump and utilities or staples catch strong bids, then SPX pulls back as cash demand rises. |
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.● Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
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