Cyclicals Clock In
Defensives Clock Out
And I'm Clocking Back: Europe switches to standard time tonight, Sunday Oct 26, 2025.
♗ Weekly Recap
● WTD Overview: Risk-on: SPX rose +1.92%, wide participation as mid and small caps joined. Cyclicals drew bids, defensives lagged; the dollar firmed.
● Key Takeaway: A calmer VIX with long-end yields steady would confirm this risk-on tone.
$↗︎ Net Flows $↘︎ — Wednesday Series
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
● Equity (mutual funds): Above vs 4-wk median — −$16.41B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Bonds (mutual funds): Below vs 4-wk median — −$0.33B total; −$1.25B taxable; +$0.92B muni (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● ETFs (net issuance): Softness — +$29.97B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Combined (MF + ETF): Net inflows — +$11.23B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Money Market Funds: Up w/w — +$30.37B to $7.40T (week ended Oct 22, 2025). ICI ICI
● ● Key Takeaway: Equity MF outflows improved; bond MF flipped to mild outflows; ETF tone softened; cash balances up. ICI×3
● ● ● Compared to last week: equity MF outflows improved; bond MF inflows cooled; ETF inflows softened; cash inflows accelerated.
● Put simply:
♔ Equities
WTD Overview: SPX advanced +1.92% as leadership broadened beyond megacaps; VXF outperformed while transports lagged. Defensives were soft, cushioning came from cyclicals and growth pockets.
● Key Takeaway: A softer dollar or further VIX slide would strengthen the risk-on case.
Leaders & Relative Holds
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Mid and small caps worked; defensives underperformed.
● Breadth: Participation widened; cyclicals and growth led while transports and staples lagged.
♛ Barometer
WTD Overview: Bonds steadied as yields eased. The dollar stayed firm, gold slipped, and copper and crypto rallied while volatility fell..
● Key Takeaway: Rates steadied and vol eased: risk-on, but conviction improves if the dollar cools or long-end stays tame.
Hedges & Risk Bias
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Curve firmed a touch; gold lagged industrials; inflation proxy mixed; stronger USD slightly capped global risk.
● Breadth: Safety trades narrow; cyclic proxies strong; participation tilt: offense.
♖ Sectors & Rotation
Weekly Sector Overview: Cyclicals outperformed; breadth wide.
• Key Takeaway: If XLK and XLI keep leading while defensives trail, this rotation can extend.
Offensive Assets
● Top WTD gainers: XLK +3.01%, XLE +2.43% — tech leadership with energy tailwind.
● Cyclicals > SPX; participation widened.
Defensive Assets
● Standout laggards: XLP −0.80%, XLU −0.20% — rates firm kept yield plays muted.
● Result: Defensives < Cyclicals (breadth: offensive).
4-6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
● Primary: Mid — mixed spread; trend mixed; breadth neutral.
● ● Alternate: Late — leadership narrow; trend weakening; breadth late tilt.
● ● ● Confidence: High — Timeframe and Trend lenses are Neutral together.
● 4–6 week outlook:
● ● ● ● 47% — Down: Late/Contraction risk stays elevated as defensives stabilize.
● ● ● ● 30% — Up: Early tilt returns if tech and cyclicals carry with calmer rates.
● ● ● ● 23% — Sideways: Range trading persists with rotations inside the tape.
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
Overview: Broadly strong: eight of ten were green; dispersion favored growth. AMZN led while TSLA lagged slightly.
● Key Takeaway: Leadership broadened beyond the heaviest weights, a constructive sign for the tape.
Offensive Leaders
● Winners: AMZN +5.24%, AAPL +4.17%, META +2.99% — retail, handset cycle, and ads momentum.
● Secondary: Search twins held up; semis steady; breadth inside the Top-10 improved.
Defensive Laggards
● Decliners: TSLA −1.27%, BRK.B −0.06%.
● Drag: autos slipped; diversified financials flat; concentration risk eased modestly.
♘ S&P 500’s Tier-Weighted: Rank & Weight Changes
Overview: Few rank shifts across tiers; Top-10 steady, most action clustered in the Mid-90 and Bott-403.
● Key Takeaway: Promotions were selective; participation nudged wider.
● Participation: breadth widened modestly as mid-pack gained ground.
Next Week’s Projection:
Stay healthy, I hope everyone here is managing these circumstances as best they can, thanks for reading....Jason
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
● Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
Defensives Clock Out
And I'm Clocking Back: Europe switches to standard time tonight, Sunday Oct 26, 2025.
♗ Weekly Recap
● WTD Overview: Risk-on: SPX rose +1.92%, wide participation as mid and small caps joined. Cyclicals drew bids, defensives lagged; the dollar firmed.
● Key Takeaway: A calmer VIX with long-end yields steady would confirm this risk-on tone.
$↗︎ Net Flows $↘︎ — Wednesday Series
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
● Equity (mutual funds): Above vs 4-wk median — −$16.41B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Bonds (mutual funds): Below vs 4-wk median — −$0.33B total; −$1.25B taxable; +$0.92B muni (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● ETFs (net issuance): Softness — +$29.97B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Combined (MF + ETF): Net inflows — +$11.23B (week ended Oct 15, 2025). ICI ICI
● Money Market Funds: Up w/w — +$30.37B to $7.40T (week ended Oct 22, 2025). ICI ICI
● ● Key Takeaway: Equity MF outflows improved; bond MF flipped to mild outflows; ETF tone softened; cash balances up. ICI×3
● ● ● Compared to last week: equity MF outflows improved; bond MF inflows cooled; ETF inflows softened; cash inflows accelerated.
● Put simply:
- “Outflows” = investors are withdrawing money (negative flow).
- “Improved” = the outflows are smaller than before (so the situation got better, even if it’s still negative).
♔ Equities
WTD Overview: SPX advanced +1.92% as leadership broadened beyond megacaps; VXF outperformed while transports lagged. Defensives were soft, cushioning came from cyclicals and growth pockets.
● Key Takeaway: A softer dollar or further VIX slide would strengthen the risk-on case.
Leaders & Relative Holds
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Mid and small caps worked; defensives underperformed.
● Breadth: Participation widened; cyclicals and growth led while transports and staples lagged.
♛ Barometer
WTD Overview: Bonds steadied as yields eased. The dollar stayed firm, gold slipped, and copper and crypto rallied while volatility fell..
● Key Takeaway: Rates steadied and vol eased: risk-on, but conviction improves if the dollar cools or long-end stays tame.
Hedges & Risk Bias
● Risk Bias: Risk-on. Curve firmed a touch; gold lagged industrials; inflation proxy mixed; stronger USD slightly capped global risk.
● Breadth: Safety trades narrow; cyclic proxies strong; participation tilt: offense.
♖ Sectors & Rotation
Weekly Sector Overview: Cyclicals outperformed; breadth wide.
• Key Takeaway: If XLK and XLI keep leading while defensives trail, this rotation can extend.
Offensive Assets
● Top WTD gainers: XLK +3.01%, XLE +2.43% — tech leadership with energy tailwind.
● Cyclicals > SPX; participation widened.
Defensive Assets
● Standout laggards: XLP −0.80%, XLU −0.20% — rates firm kept yield plays muted.
● Result: Defensives < Cyclicals (breadth: offensive).
4-6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
● Primary: Mid — mixed spread; trend mixed; breadth neutral.
● ● Alternate: Late — leadership narrow; trend weakening; breadth late tilt.
● ● ● Confidence: High — Timeframe and Trend lenses are Neutral together.
● 4–6 week outlook:
● ● ● ● 47% — Down: Late/Contraction risk stays elevated as defensives stabilize.
● ● ● ● 30% — Up: Early tilt returns if tech and cyclicals carry with calmer rates.
● ● ● ● 23% — Sideways: Range trading persists with rotations inside the tape.
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
Overview: Broadly strong: eight of ten were green; dispersion favored growth. AMZN led while TSLA lagged slightly.
● Key Takeaway: Leadership broadened beyond the heaviest weights, a constructive sign for the tape.
Offensive Leaders
● Winners: AMZN +5.24%, AAPL +4.17%, META +2.99% — retail, handset cycle, and ads momentum.
● Secondary: Search twins held up; semis steady; breadth inside the Top-10 improved.
Defensive Laggards
● Decliners: TSLA −1.27%, BRK.B −0.06%.
● Drag: autos slipped; diversified financials flat; concentration risk eased modestly.
♘ S&P 500’s Tier-Weighted: Rank & Weight Changes
Overview: Few rank shifts across tiers; Top-10 steady, most action clustered in the Mid-90 and Bott-403.
● Key Takeaway: Promotions were selective; participation nudged wider.
● Participation: breadth widened modestly as mid-pack gained ground.
Next Week’s Projection:
| Scenario | Probability | Evidence (Weekly-Based, conditional) |
|---|---|---|
 Mild Drift Higher | 42% | If long-end yields stay calm and the dollar eases a bit and VIX holds low, then dip-buyers should keep control. |
 Sideways (±0.5%) | 38% | If the dollar stays firm while bonds steady and leadership remains mixed, then the index likely chops inside a tight range. |
 Pullback (>−1%) | 20% | If yields rebound and the dollar firms and volatility lifts from lows, then a quick fade becomes likely. |
Stay healthy, I hope everyone here is managing these circumstances as best they can, thanks for reading....Jason
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.● Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
Last edited:
