weatherweenie's account talk

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Specticles, testicles, wallet and watch. OK, I'm definitely standing pat in the C fund for Thursday. What, me worry?
 
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/s%26p-90%25-selling+pressure/index/a/13466/from/yahoo

I’ve heard from quite a few different sources about how yesterday’s selling pressure, so soon after a new high in the major indices, is a sign of the apocalypse.

I like to look at history when these kinds of things happen, and for the most part that kind of analysis has been a good guide. So let’s take a look at yesterday’s crap-out and put it into an historical context to see if previous instances led to anything dramatic.

The biggest deal seems to be that yesterday was a “90%” day. There are various definitions of that, but for these purposes I’ll keep it simple and just say that 90% of the issues that traded on the NYSE closed lower than the previous day’s close.

Now let’s look for any other 90% days that occurred while the S&P 500 closed within 3% of a 52-week high on the day prior to the 90% day. Like yesterday.

Since 1965, I can find eight other occurrences. Several of them looked exactly like the current pattern of a “false” breakout followed by a break below recent support, which triggered the stiff selling pressure.

Sadly for the doom-sayers, only one of those led to any kind of meaningful decline, and even that was somewhat temporary. Overall, the S&P 500 was positive one month later six of the eight times.

Three months later, it was positive all eight times, with an average return of +5.2%. The average maximum loss during those three months was -2.1% compared to an average maximum gain that was four times as large, at +8.4%. Only two of them suffered any more than an additional 2% loss during the next three months.
 
I don't get the impression that anyone is thinking were heading for a reversal into a bear market. The trading range of the past four years had been really tight, but has been steadily drifting up out of this channel. While some view (and welcome) this as a precursor to a late 90's bubble, I think a lot of folks would rather see the occassional healthy correction - so we don't have a 1987 style correction, where everybody suddenly realizes one day that the US Banking (mortgage) system is as much of a house of cards as China's is.

View attachment 1794

weatherweenie said:
Sadly for the doom-sayers, only one of those led to any kind of meaningful decline, and even that was somewhat temporary. Overall, the S&P 500 was positive one month later six of the eight times.

Three months later, it was positive all eight times, with an average return of +5.2%. The average maximum loss during those three months was -2.1% compared to an average maximum gain that was four times as large, at +8.4%. Only two of them suffered any more than an additional 2% loss during the next three months.
Click to expand...
 
weatherweenie said:
:laugh: Thought about including that, but then it's pretty obvious, even to me, that we've had a fall out.
Click to expand...
i am there with ya tracker has me down BIG- minus lots of $$$ kissed GBYE prt of the game, when to hold em when to fold em D#$@! sure cant walk away or run now:DG L WW
 
Re: weatherweenie's Account

So whats the conclusion? With all these IFTs, how have you faired. What % up or down are you?

I guess I am a miser at this game. Currently I am 98% G fund, 1% C fund, and 1% I fund so I made out ok today. I try to gain a little every day, sometimes I lose a little.

Hi Timmie, I moved this because you had posted it to his "account". Please post comments to "account talk"

Thank you.
Rod
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: weatherweenie's Account

Timmie-O said:
So whats the conclusion? With all these IFTs, how have you faired. What % up or down are you?
Click to expand...

Since you asked, based on the data here, I am up 9.52% on the year.

That doesn't include a 0.90% plus day I had in early April.

I dorked something up, and still am showing 50% C&I here. I'm really 50% F, 25% S&I.
 
I'm sure as I can be that I remembered to post my move to the Account thread. :)

Went 100% F. Waiting for the dust to settle.
 
Taking some off of the table for Thursday.

30% G
35% C
35% I

The market moves of the past couple weeks must've affected me more than I realized. When I went to make an acct change, I thought I was 50-50 S&I. Turns out I was 20% C 30% S 50% I. Oh well.
 
Don't know what's goin on at TSP, but when I went in to change my ITF, it showed me in 50-50 s-i which is what I thought I had been in. When I initially went in to do an ITF today is had me 20% c 30% s 50% i.

Anyway, I'm taking a little more off the table for tomorrow, going:
40% G
30% C
30% I

weatherweenie said:
Taking some off of the table for Thursday.

30% G
35% C
35% I

The market moves of the past couple weeks must've affected me more than I realized. When I went to make an acct change, I thought I was 50-50 S&I. Turns out I was 20% C 30% S 50% I. Oh well.
Click to expand...
 
Nibblin a bit for Monday. Don't believe the hype that there is going to be a surprise rate cut anytime soon.

50% G
30% C
20% I
 
weatherweenie said:
Don't believe the hype that there is going to be a surprise rate cut anytime soon.
Click to expand...

You're right. Wishful thinking is worthless. A rate cut would be disasterous to the US economy and Fed in intermediate to long term. We can't let this dollar fall any more. I know alot of folks out there want to see the dollar fall so that the I Fund goes up, but there's more to this forest than a few trees. Basically, if the Fed cuts in surprise fashion, their credibility would be shot and it wouldn't do much to help the companies that are foundering more by the minute.

We're just clearing out some of the dead wood for the time being.
 
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