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All roads lead to China

Key links to China (dates and brief bullets)
  • May 8, 2018: U.S. JCPOA withdrawal; China (original signatory) condemns move, vows to preserve deal and continue peaceful nuclear/energy cooperation with Iran.
  • 2019–2020: Iran breaches JCPOA limits; China sustains oil imports (often discounted), becoming Iran's economic lifeline under U.S. "maximum pressure."
  • March 27, 2021: Iran-China sign 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (up to $400 billion Chinese investment in energy/infrastructure); includes oil-for-investment, Belt and Road integration, and clauses on joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and security cooperation (though military elements remain limited/cautious).
  • 2023–2024: China brokers Saudi-Iran normalization (March 2023); joint naval drills with Iran/Russia continue; dual-use tech/precursor shipments support Iran's missile program amid proxy conflicts.
  • January–June 2025: Trump revives indirect talks; China opposes Iran's nuclear weapons pursuit but backs "peaceful" program rights; trilateral consultations (China-Russia-Iran) occur; Beijing reaffirms 25-year pact implementation pre-strikes.
  • June 13–22, 2025: Israel launches strikes; China condemns as sovereignty violation, urges de-escalation/ceasefire; offers mediation role but provides no material military aid; criticizes U.S./Israel actions while prioritizing energy stability (Strait of Hormuz concerns).
February 14: US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations

February 19: Trump warns Iran of 'bad things' if no deal made, sets deadline of 10-15 days

Exclusive: Iran nears deal to buy supersonic anti-ship missiles from China​

By John Irish, Parisa Hafezi and Gavin Finch
February 24, 202610:44 AM GMT+1Updated February 26, 2026
 
Boghie said:
This thing is over. We are now bouncing the rubble.
Click to expand...
I hope you're right. I hope the president is right.

I was a big supporter of the Iraq war. Wasn't until a very conservative friend of mine, over time, convinced me I was wrong. (cost 2-3 trillion, as well as other "happenings" he correctly predicted).

I believed this at the time, but it took way longer:
MA.jpg
 
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This one is bad.

A Chinese company called MizarVision has been posting real-time US military positions on X throughout this war. 🇨🇳

F-22 locations. Patriot batteries. Carrier movements. AWACS positions.

Some of those sites were struck by Iran shortly after.

The satellite imagery they used wasn't Chinese.

It was American and European commercial satellites. Bought. Processed. Published. Publicly.

China built Iran a real-time targeting intelligence service using Western data.

And posted it on X.
 

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jonfresno said:
I hope you're right. I hope the president is right.

I was a big supporter of the Iraq war. Wasn't until a very conservative friend of mine, over time, convinced me I was wrong. (cost 2-3 trillion, as well as other "happenings" he correctly predicted).

I believed this at the time, but it took way longer:
View attachment 71879
Click to expand...

You know who hasn't been an aggressive, terrorist state for quite some time...

If Iran becomes part of the civilized world, do we need to station carriers in that region, staff massive military commands in that region, etc.?
 
I remember reading about this war game - where a USMC general played 'Iran' and wiped us off the map. Folks didn't like it, and they thought he gamed the game. Big Brass was Big Mad. But, learning was accomplished...

Millennium Challenge, Marine Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper
 
James,

Your barking up the wrong tree.
As they say, fighting the last war.
We can just leave. Anytime we want.
We can come back. Anytime we want.

The concern now should be: If we just leave and refuse to Nation Build, is that a moral and desirable outcome?
 

Defense executives plan to meet at White House as strikes on Iran diminish stockpiles​

March 4: The White House meeting comes as Deputy ‌Defense ⁠Secretary Steve Feinberg has been leading Pentagon work in recent days on a supplemental budget request of around $50 billion that could be released as soon as Friday.

For $50 Billion Context: This figure, equates to roughly 5–6% of the annual Department of Defense (DoD) discretionary budget for fiscal year 2026, which stands at approximately $850–900 billion (with national defense totals nearing $900–1 trillion including related accounts).
 
DOGE reduced Federal Gubmint spending by $35 - $40 Billion/Month...
That is about $420 - $480 Billion/Year...

A successful completion of this Forever War (started in 1979) could very well mean spending close to $0 Billion in the region. The sea lanes will no longer be threatened. We don't really get much oil or gas from there. Thus, our weak partners could float a Love Boat around and deal with some pirates every once in a while.
 
Boghie said:
DOGE reduced Federal Gubmint spending by $35 - $40 Billion/Month...
That is about $420 - $480 Billion/Year...

A successful completion of this Forever War (started in 1979) could very well mean spending close to $0 Billion in the region. The sea lanes will no longer be threatened. We don't really get much oil or gas from there. Thus, our weak partners could float a Love Boat around and deal with some pirates every once in a while.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I can't find anything those numbers. And as you said, if we don't get much oil or gas from there then we really don't have a reason to be there. We have our own hemisphere with plenty of resources to plunder. Let them kill or make peace with themselves, not my clown not my circus. 50+ years of conflicts in the region, have achieved nothing of value.

Edit: Corrected my usual bad grammar.
 
Last edited:
Boghie said:
DOGE reduced Federal Gubmint spending by $35 - $40 Billion/Month...
That is about $420 - $480 Billion/Year...
Click to expand...
Not even close to true.

While DOGE reduced the physical number of federal employees, the actual spending was higher than the year before, and did not result in savings to the taxpayer.

Based on available reports from 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) did not reduce overall federal spending and, in some cases, total government spending increased. While DOGE achieved significant, record-setting reductions in the federal workforce (approximately 9% in 10 months) and cut some specific contracts, these actions did not translate into a net decrease in total federal expenditures.

Source: https://www.cato.org/blog/doge-prod...e-workforce-cut-record-spending-kept-rising-0
 
James48843 said:
Not even close to true.

While DOGE reduced the physical number of federal employees, the actual spending was higher than the year before, and did not result in savings to the taxpayer.

Based on available reports from 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) did not reduce overall federal spending and, in some cases, total government spending increased. While DOGE achieved significant, record-setting reductions in the federal workforce (approximately 9% in 10 months) and cut some specific contracts, these actions did not translate into a net decrease in total federal expenditures.

Source: https://www.cato.org/blog/doge-prod...e-workforce-cut-record-spending-kept-rising-0
Click to expand...
It is truly disheartening that people believe nonsense like DOGE saved money, among other things.
 
For those of you interested in high end discussion of military and political conflict, check out Perun:


His long form videos on Ukraine are amazing. This one on the ME is well thought out.
 
FY26 Q1 spending was higher than FY25 Q1 spending.

Keep in mind, the majority of the rif'ed and resigned feds came off the books by Oct. 1.
 
You can actually see where DOGE saved money.
Where are the USAID expenditures?
How about EPA expenditures?
Department of Agriculture?
Department of Education?
Department of Commerce?

As SteelSaving mentioned, total expenditures ARE up YoY:

RevenueExpensesDeficit
FY2025 (2024/10 -> 2025/01)15962435840
FY2026 (2025/10 -> 2026/01)17852482697
Differential+189 Billion+47 Billion-143 Billion
Differential %+11.84%+1.93%-17.02%

by less than 2%. At no point in my long life have I ever seen Federal expenditures grow by less than 2% YoY. I haven't been bored enough to look that up, but I would put money that there has never been a YoY expenditure growth of less than 2% since the Johnson presidency - maybe the Clinton era, but I doubt it, he was using revenue growth and Social Security surplus.

As I noted, if you look at specific Agencies you will see the affect of DOGE. You will also note that some agencies are spending more. DOGE can cut, but the DoD, the interest, and HHS can gain. In the end, holding growth to less than 2% is a great leap forward and DOGE played a massive role in that as can be seen by the focus list noted above. It is all in the Monthly Treasury Statement.

By the way, DOGE is functionally embedded in the DoD now as well as Treasury.
 
Funny, I don't recall the goal of Trump and doge being to go up at a slower rate.

Like I've found with everyone who extols this situation: it's not the spending that really bothered them, nor the debt. They just didn't like what it was being spent on.
But doing the actual thing it takes to fix that (getting congress to do it's job) is difficult and costs people their position at election time, so they just rely on an executive. So you pat yourself on the back because the cuts are finally happening but then the head of an agency throws 9 figures at a media campaign. Using the people's money to promote itself to the people. And we just shrug our shoulders because we tell ourselves we're owning the other side.

And the trip down the drain continues.
 
Boghie said:
You can actually see where DOGE saved money.
Where are the USAID expenditures?
How about EPA expenditures?
Department of Agriculture?
Department of Education?
Department of Commerce?

As SteelSaving mentioned, total expenditures ARE up YoY:

RevenueExpensesDeficit
FY2025 (2024/10 -> 2025/01)15962435840
FY2026 (2025/10 -> 2026/01)17852482697
Differential+189 Billion+47 Billion-143 Billion
Differential %+11.84%+1.93%-17.02%
At no point in my long life have I ever seen Federal expenditures grow by less than 2% YoY. I haven't been bored enough to look that up, but I would put money that there has never been a YoY expenditure growth of less than 2% since the Johnson presidency - maybe the Clinton era, but I doubt it, he was using revenue growth and Social Security surplus.
Click to expand...

I'll take your bet. Expenditures have nothing to do with revenue.
Biden, Obama, Clinton, and Reagan have all seen federal expenditures drop in at least one fiscal year from the previous.

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-has-the-federal-budget-changed/

Next time they offer a TSPtalk silver coin, you can get me one.
 
I see the department of defense, oops sorry the department of war did a thorough evaluation of all the possible scenarios that could happen.
 
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