userque's Account talk

[userque]

The Highly Irrelevant 50-Day Moving Average
The Highly Irrelevant 50-Day Moving Average | Price Action Lab Blog

"The Nasdaq 100 fell below its 50-day moving average yesterday as it became evident from the immediate response in social media and financial blogosphere. But they were talking about a highly irrelevant indicator.

..."

 

[userque]

Retail Stock Trading Is Dying Due To Low Volatility
Retail Stock Trading Is Dying Due To Low Volatility | Price Action Lab Blog

"The low volatility phenomenon in the equity markets is the result of explosive growth in passive investing after a prolonged and continuing central bank manipulation of prices in conjunction with a decline in retail trader population. It is hard for traders to compete in a market that lacks an unbiased price discovery mechanism.



The low volatility phenomenon will persist until there is a significant correction. ...

..."

 

[userque]

Just Follow The System
Just Follow The System | Price Action Lab Blog

"It is paradoxical but investor anxiety rises near all-time highs. This may have to do with cognitive biases and specifically hyperbolic discounting, i.e., the tendency to want an immediate payoff. At the same time, when markets are rallying, there is scarcity of bearish signals. There is a solution out if this conundrum: follow the system and if you do not have one it’s time to get one.

..."

 

[userque]

Use Algos to Fight The Algos
Use Algos to Fight The Algos | Price Action Lab Blog

"Every trader’s resolution for this year should include a transition to a mode of operation that is compatible with current market environment. Among other things, this includes abandoning random discretionary trading and adopting a systematic framework. When human traders start a fight with algos, chances of winning are slim. I offer some basic guidelines for this transition.



Trading is getting harder every year. ...

..."

 

[userque]

End Of Discretionary Trading Era
End Of Discretionary Trading Era | Price Action Lab Blog

"As far as I am concerned, this year marks the end of discretionary trading. Although this is done on a positive note for this blog, it is clear that discretionary trading, especially the type that is based on classical technical analysis, is dead in a market dominated by algos and hedge funds using machine learning.

..."

 

[userque]

RSI Indicator Levels Are Irrelevant For Timeframes Longer Than A Couple Of Days
RSI Indicator Levels Are Irrelevant For Timeframes Longer Than A Couple Of Days | Price Action Lab Blog

"Changes in Relative Strength Index (RSI) have low correlation with changes in price for timeframes longer than two days. This relationship is highly robust for four major ETFs. The conclusion is that only very short-term traders should look at the RSI.

..."

 

[userque]

"If markets behaved rationally.... everyone who made "A's" in high school would be a millionaire".
-CNBC guest commentator

 

[userque]

Amazon engineer will let strangers on the internet manage his $50,000 stock portfolio 'forever'
Amazon engineer will let strangers manage his portfolio 'forever'

 

[userque]

"'A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.'" - Warren Buffett

 

[userque]

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.--George Soros

 

[pmaloney]

George Soros a great investor in corrupt politicians and social anarchy. Why isn't this in the political forum? It is not clever. It is BS!

 

[userque]

George Soros a great investor in corrupt politicians and social anarchy. Why isn't this in the political forum? It is not clever. It is BS!

Because it wasn't political?


#readingComprehension

 

[userque]

DOES DOUBLING DOWN WORK?
Does Doubling Down Work? - Alpha ArchitectAlpha Architect

"I demonstrate that when investment fund managers “double down” on positions that have run against them, they outperform. ...

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[userque]

THE SECRET TO MOMENTUM IS THE 52-WEEK HIGH???
The Secret to Momentum is the 52-Week High??? - Alpha ArchitectAlpha Architect

"When coupled with a stock’s current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52-week high price–explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. ...

..."

 

[Whipsaw]

Usercuz, what happened to that AI trading system you were working on?

 

[userque]

Usercuz, what happened to that AI trading system you were working on?

I still have it. I've commercialized it, but don't advertise it here anymore...for now.

 

[userque]

"Great traders are more impressed with what they don't know then what they do"


-Karen Kaplan CEO Hill Holliday

 

[userque]

TIME TO TRADE IN YOUR DOCTOR FOR AN ALGO?

Artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of low-back pain and sciatica

Time to Trade in Your Doctor for an Algo? -Alpha Architect

"In a prospective trial of 200 patients with low-back pain or sciatica, the diagnostic performance of a computer was compared with that of a clinician in a variety of clinical settings. The results indicate that artificial Intelligence techniques can be used for the differential diagnosis of low-back disorders, can outperform clinicians, and can be used to develop better methods of human differential diagnosis.

..."

 

[userque]

FORECASTING BIAS: FROM WEATHER TO WALL STREET
Forecasting Bias: From Weather to Wall Street -Alpha Architect

"(Last Updated On: January 18, 2017)

Providers of forecasts often want to be right, but they also don’t enjoy surprising people on the downside. People don’t like nasty surprises.


For instance, it is by now a well-known phenomenon that weather forecasters tend to predict rain more often than it tends to occur. In a famous study, it was shown that when the Weather Channel predicted a 20% chance of rain, it only ended up raining 5% of the time. This is known as “wet bias,” since the Weather Channel is systematically biased in favor of wet forecasts.

..."

 

[userque]

THE REMARKABLE TRUTH ABOUT 52-WEEK HIGH STOCKS
The Remarkable Truth about 52-Week High Stocks -Alpha Architect

"A stock you own just hit a 52-week high…

Does it make you nervous?


On Wall Street, there are many highly publicized metrics that can trigger an emotional response in investors. The “52-week high” signal is a great example. It is a widely reported (e.g., Barron’s, WSJ, MarketWatch) and easily noticed statistic. Stocks at 52-week highs are at their peak versus historical values, and this is, presumably, valuable information. Also, peaks per se are salient, almost by definition, and so we tend to pay a lot of attention to them.
Psychological studies have shown that people exhibit an availability bias, placing undue emphasis on facts and examples that are salient, prominent or easily recalled. A recent earthquake, for example, will cause us to adjust our base rates, and temporarily overestimate the likelihood of earthquakes.


So how do people perceive stocks that are at a 52-week high, and might this metric cause us to do something inappropriate?

..."