userque & NUGT/DUST

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FOR 11-11-15:

UPDATE -- See attached text for updated trading solutions. I'll announce the call after the open as well. HOWEVER,

I "finished" the intraday system. It wants to enter dust circa 11:15am, and exit circa 15:40pm. I'll announce the actual trade after the open.





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DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 

Attachments

Last edited:
IN DUST AT 20.64







_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
Exit to CASH at CLOSE







_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
FORECAST FOR 11-12-15:

ENTER DUST CIRCA 10:05 ET
EXIT TO CASH CIRCA 15:45 ET

* THIS MODEL IS MORE CONDUCIVE TO STOP-LOSS TRADING. ALSO, IF THE TRADE DOESN'T "LOOK RIGHT" AT THE FORECAST TIME; THE TRADE CAN BE CALLED-OFF FOR THE DAY.


_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
IN DUST @ 19.98








_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
OUT @ 21.09









_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
I mentioned a formula typo the other day. After fixing things, the INTRADAY model then forecast the same time for both entry and exit. What to do?

I modified the techniques I use to insure the DAILY models only output results that have actually happened in history (and not just some "mathematical construct"), to work on the intraday scale. I used this modified version today.

Now, I'm considering adding "multiple forecasts." The intraday model uses one to several historical pattern matches of variable lengths in its algorithm. When it uses more than one historical pattern, I may include those secondary, tertiary, etc. entry/exit times in the forecast as well.

When trading, I will use the primary forecast, unless it seems that one of the other forecasts may "fit" the real-time price action better. This will be clearer once I post the next forecast. I just wanted to get the explanation out first.

EDIT:

Forecast delayed due to experiments I'm conducting the the TSP Models. (Finally getting more time to play with them as I conducted my "final" INTRADAY Model experiment today, [testing whether adding the Opening price as in input would improve the results of the intraday model...Nope.])
 
NEW CHART--INTRADAY:

ALL TRADES ARE TO THE LONG SIDE

(I'll eventually do a full update, but for now...)

1.png






_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
Last edited:
FORECAST FOR 11-13-15:

I WILL POST THE TRADES AS THEY HAPPEN.

The data from using the OPTIMAL PARAMETERS showed NO BIAS. It used two patterns; one was "long," the other was "short." So, I ran the numbers using the second best parameters to check for BIAS, which turned out to be SHORT.

Here is the data from the OPTIMAL PARAMETERS.

HIGH LOW PATTERN
TIME TIME MATCH SCORE
___________________________
958.33 1566.67 441.98
1591.67 950.00 441.98

INTERPRETATION:

The PATTERN MATCH SCORE is a score assigned to each historical pattern representing how well the most recent historical data (from the most recent trading day: 11-12-15) "matches" the same number of days in the past. Here, at least to the algorithm, it found two times in history that matched current history "equally."

The HIGH/LOW TIMES shows the times the highs and lows occurred in the patterns in "decimal" format, accurate to the nearest fifth minute multiplied by 100. For example,

958.33 == 9:35
1566.67 == 15:40
1591.67 == 15:55
950 == 9:30

Ie., 8.33(repetend 3) units = 5 minutes

All times are always Eastern Times.

Finally, the patterns are listed from top to bottom; most recent to oldest.

Going forward, I'll be trying to determine which pattern(s) are more likely to be the more accurate forecast:

1. The best matched?
2. The most recent?
3. The best matched, with the correct bias?
4. The most recent, with the correct bias?
5. None of the above, wait until the market open and see which pattern seems to fit the price action best.

Current Situation relating the above points:

1. The best matched? EQUAL
2. The most recent? DUST AT 9:55 ET, EXIT AT 15:40 ET
3. The best matched, with the correct bias? DUST AT 9:55 ET, EXIT AT 15:40 ET
4. The most recent, with the correct bias? DUST AT 9:55 ET, EXIT AT 15:40 ET


What about the previous day; day one of this new model?

Here's the data:

HIGH LOW PATTERN
TIME TIME MATCH SCORE
___________________________
1008.33 1575.00 30.33
950.00 1591.67 30.33

Found the BIAS to be SHORT by doing as described previously. Hence, the previous dust at 10:05 forecast.


_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
IN DUST AT 21.30









_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
EXIT AT CLOSE


​


__________________________________________________ _______________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
FORECAST FOR 11-16-15:

ENTER DUST CIRCA 10:00 ET
EXIT TO CASH CIRCA 14:30 ET




_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
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