userque & NUGT/DUST

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Steiner said:
Q,

Any plans for today?
Click to expand...

It's rather complicated...right now, I'm looking at going long circa 9:50am...but no set times anymore.

If 9:50am doesn't work, then I'll be looking for the next possible entry, either long or short.

I'll post the trades as I make them, but if you like complicated, I can try to reduce it to something I can post going forward.?
 
got within 6 cents of my target then launched to the upside. So close to perfect and yet no joy
 
guppie,

I could be wrong and certainly time will tell, but I'm thinking that would have been a very good entry point into NUGT. Any chance you would care to explain why you thought a few days ago NUGT would go down to $22.24 (6 cents below current low for the day) before it would turn around? I thought something around $24 was going to be the low but it went past that very quickly. Shows what I know.
 
Lower Bollinger band coupled with panic selling and a ever strengthening dollar. Mostly just years of watching nugt bounce around and grind lower. I've nailed the bottom about 10% of the time, get close 60% of the time and end up going lower before recovering 40%. It's just a low cost form of gambling really. ;)

P.S For the record my actual buy was set at 22.23 I thought I saw 22.29 flash for a second
 
Note: I have cancelled the buy order at this time and am reevaluating the continued strength in the dollar. ( I also want to see what the FED says this afternoon)

USERQUE, I am curious if you mind that I use your thread. I have never yet figured out how to start my own. If my inputs are bothersome please let me know and I will go away. jt

guppie said:
Lower Bollinger band coupled with panic selling and a ever strengthening dollar. Mostly just years of watching nugt bounce around and grind lower. I've nailed the bottom about 10% of the time, get close 60% of the time and end up going lower before recovering 40%. It's just a low cost form of gambling really. ;)

P.S For the record my actual buy was set at 22.23 I thought I saw 22.29 flash for a second
Click to expand...
 
guppie said:
Note: I have cancelled the buy order at this time and am reevaluating the continued strength in the dollar. ( I also want to see what the FED says this afternoon)

USERQUE, I am curious if you mind that I use your thread. I have never yet figured out how to start my own. If my inputs are bothersome please let me know and I will go away. jt
Click to expand...

I don't mind. Thanks for asking. :)

Actually, I'll probably starting charting, logging, graphing your trades along with my own, when I get around to it.

And even when you get your own thread, you're still welcome here.
 
Staying in NUGT

Progress Update:

Found what was slowing down my calculations using:

https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/li...erf_FindingPrioritizingCalculationBottlenecks

I had to modify it a tad to run on a 64 bit system. 120x improvement in speed after finding and modifying a redundant formula!!

Finished TSP Model experiments. Nothing left to do except to continue logging stats going forward for potential parameter improvements in the near future.

(Note, the TSP Model is a general equities model and is not specific to any TSP fund. It is based on Nasdaq composite data since 1984. It does not pick which equity fund to enter; I do that based upon the relative strength of the funds.)

That freed up time to deal with the GDX model.

Major overhaul in the GDX model.

With the speed fix, and after yesterday's performance, I threw more data at the GDX model. Pretty much re-built it. Tests show a vast improvement. It can swing trade again, but when it does flip positions, it'll do so on an intraday basis.

I can post, asap after the open (it uses the opening price), all of the possible times it'll be considering for entry (EDIT: in priority order, so it is possible for no trade to occur if the fist time to consider is late in the day) for those days that it decides a trade is needed. I'll pick the actual time based upon real-time price action. I'll post asap after the trade is made. The system currently forecasts a higher high and a higher low for tomorrow, so staying in NUGT.
 
Last edited:
userque said:
Staying in NUGT

Progress Update:

Found what was slowing down my calculations using:

https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/li...erf_FindingPrioritizingCalculationBottlenecks

I had to modify it a tad to run on a 64 bit system. 120x improvement in speed after finding and modifying a redundant formula!!

Finished TSP Model experiments. Nothing left to do except to continue logging stats going forward for potential parameter improvements in the near future.

(Note, the TSP Model is a general equities model and is not specific to any TSP fund. It is based on Nasdaq composite data since 1984. It does not pick which equity fund to enter; I do that based upon the relative strength of the funds.)

That freed up time to deal with the GDX model.

Major overhaul in the GDX model.

With the speed fix, and after yesterday's performance, I threw more data at the GDX model. Pretty much re-built it. Tests show a vast improvement. It can swing trade again, but when it does flip positions, it'll do so on an intraday basis.

I can post, asap after the open (it uses the opening price), all of the possible times it'll be considering for entry (EDIT: in priority order, so it is possible for no trade to occur if the fist time to consider is late in the day) for those days that it decides a trade is needed. I'll pick the actual time based upon real-time price action. I'll post asap after the trade is made. The system currently forecasts a higher high and a higher low for tomorrow, so staying in NUGT.
Click to expand...

_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
 
Just occurred to me. Now that my Excel speed problem is fixed, I can split the forecasting problem between multiple models.

One model to determine whether the next day will be higher highs, lower lows, inside, or outside, etc.
Another to determine today's high and low times.
The last to determine the next days high and low times.

The current model does all three. I've already done the heavy lifting, it'll be relatively easy to make this modification.
 
Just spotted some errors in the formulas...gotta learn to stop rushing.

I'll post an updated forecast once I fix things; then another forecast based on the the new models I'm building today.
 
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