userque & NUGT/DUST

[userque]

Fixed things...same forecast, staying in NUGT.





_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[guppie]

out at 22.93

 

[guppie]

really expected another dip before launch. Oh well still made a little

 

[userque]

Model forecasts higher high tomorrow...staying in NUGT.

Progress Update:

Gave each forecast "question" (Percentage change for tomorrows High relative to today's high?, Time of High today?, etc.) its own, separate, specialize model. Six different models so far (same custom kNN engine). I may be able to get by with reducing that to four; or...I may need to add two more.

 

[userque]

EXIT NUGT AT 27.46

ENTER DUST AT 18.21







_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Back to day trading?

Model forecasts higher high tomorrow...staying in NUGT.

Progress Update:

Gave each forecast "question" (Percentage change for tomorrows High relative to today's high?, Time of High today?, etc.) its own, separate, specialize model. Six different models so far (same custom kNN engine). I may be able to get by with reducing that to four; or...I may need to add two more.

EXIT NUGT AT 27.46

ENTER DUST AT 18.21







_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Back to day trading?

No, system stays put as long as the next trading day is forecast to offer a better potential exit price.

When the system forecasts that today's forecasted High or Low is the better price when compared to the next trading day's forecasted High or Low, it will trade at what it forecasts to be the time the High or Low is forecasted to occur.

Simply put, it like it was before expect it can trade intraday as well as the close or open. Before, it only traded at the open or close.

Simpler even, the system has been in NUGT a few days. A swing trade. Today, it forecasts the high of today to occur at 9:35 ET. It also forecasts tomorrow's high to be lower than today's high. So, it traded.

So far, I don't see a "daytrade."

Even so, and like before, if it forecast no [consistent] higher highs, or lower lows, [otherwise known as] chop, then, my guess is that it will trade more frequently.

Even more so, it will always hold overnight, unless technical issues arise.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

So, you are now just posting your trades and not the forecasts?

The last post you had showed NUGT higher, then all of a sudden you post that you are selling NUGT and buying DUST... no forecast. By the time I saw the post, NUGT had already dropped 5%+; so I am glad you sold at nearly the top, but it was pretty much a useless post for anyone that is thinking about using your system.

Enjoy, but this is too much like riding a roller coaster, without the thrill. No direction, random forecasts, and no matter how "simply" or "simpler" you put it, it seems that you are the only one that can follow the system when you only post your trades... unless you are posting your forecasts in another thread?

Based on your explanation, I apologize for using the phrase day trading, I was wrong... but you aren't forecasting either...

No, system stays put as long as the next trading day is forecast to offer a better potential exit price.

When the system forecasts that today's forecasted High or Low is the better price when compared to the next trading day's forecasted High or Low, it will trade at what it forecasts to be the time the High or Low is forecasted to occur.

Simply put, it like it was before expect it can trade intraday as well as the close or open. Before, it only traded at the open or close.

Simpler even, the system has been in NUGT a few days. A swing trade. Today, it forecasts the high of today to occur at 9:35 ET. It also forecasts tomorrow's high to be lower than today's high. So, it traded.

So, far, I don't see a "daytrade."

Even so, and like before, if it forecast no higher highs, or lower lows, or chop, then, my guess is that it will trade more frequently.

Even more so, it will always hold overnight, unless technical issues arise.

 

[userque]

I can post, asap after the open (it uses the opening price), ...

So, you are now just posting your trades and not the forecasts?

The last post you had showed NUGT higher, then all of a sudden you post that you are selling NUGT and buying DUST... no forecast. By the time I saw the post, NUGT had already dropped 5%+; so I am glad you sold at nearly the top, but it was pretty much a useless post for anyone that is thinking about using your system.

Enjoy, but this is too much like riding a roller coaster, without the thrill. No direction, random forecasts, and no matter how "simply" or "simpler" you put it, it seems that you are the only one that can follow the system when you only post your trades... unless you are posting your forecasts in another thread?

Based on your explanation, I apologize for using the phrase day trading, I was wrong... but you aren't forecasting either...

I'll try to also make this simple and easy to understand.

As I've stated, the system uses the opening price. The market opens at 9:30, I posted a quick post saying what I was doing. I then edited the post to make it neat. So, I was able to wait for an opening quote to arrive at my browser, input that into my system, get the output, make two trades, then post what happened, all before 9:36.

More simply, if the market wants the high to be at 9:35, and my system needs data first at 9:30, then it is what it is.

Now, what I could do, if anyone wants it, is the trading index that I did once before, listing all of the possible opening prices along with the associated forecasts. But,

I also mentioned that I've been reconfigure the system to make it much more accurate, that index system is not in place yet. And even if it were, I wouldn't have had time to use it; because I'm still running an analysis to see what to do next with regard to DUST...again, because I've been updating and re-optimizing--which takes a lot of time.

After I finish initializing these four models I now have for GDX; I must upgrade the TSP Models, then, if anyone states so in this thread, I'll re-implement the index forecast.

Finally, you may have a misunderstanding of what I'm doing here. :blink:
_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Nevermind, you are too condescending for my taste.

For the last time, good luck.

I'll try to also make this simple and easy to understand.

As I've stated, the system uses the opening price. The market opens at 9:30, I posted a quick post saying what I was doing. I then edited the post to make it neat. So, I was able to wait for an opening quote to arrive at my browser, input that into my system, get the output, make two trades, then post what happened, all before 9:36.

More simply, if the market wants the high to be at 9:35, and my system needs data first at 9:30, then it is what it is.

Now, what I could do, if anyone wants it, is the trading index that I did once before, listing all of the possible opening prices along with the associated forecasts. But,

I also mentioned that I've been reconfigure the system to make it much more accurate, that index system is not in place yet. And even if it were, I wouldn't have had time to use it; because I'm still running an analysis to see what to do next with regard to DUST...again, because I've been updating and re-optimizing--which takes a lot of time.

After I finish initializing these four models I now have for GDX; I must upgrade the TSP Models, then, if anyone states so in this thread, I'll re-implement the index forecast.

Finally, you may have a misunderstanding of what I'm doing here. :blink:
_________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Nevermind, you are too condescending for my taste.

For the last time, good luck.

You whine and are abusive without provocation to an individual trying to do something interesting for folks here, at my own expense in time/effort/etc. I am not running a premium service.

I condescend to such behavior to keep from swearing and cussing in my responses. If it's ok with Tom, and you prefer swearing and cussing, let me know.

I guess we are two imperfect people.

Once again, thanks, and good luck to you too.

 

[guppie]

place a premarket buy for 17.85. obviously it didn't fill. Nice call at 18.21

 

[userque]

place a premarket buy for 17.85. obviously it didn't fill. Nice call at 18.21

Thanks...glad I missed selling that day. 17.85 was pretty close and still a good call.

 

[guppie]

The Nugt trade really had some legs once it got going. I made my 400 for the day and was out quick, but left 1200 behind. Oh well, I have trading rules for my cash account that stop me out at a 200 loss or a 400 gain every time

 

[userque]

The Nugt trade really had some legs once it got going. I made my 400 for the day and was out quick, but left 1200 behind. Oh well, I have trading rules for my cash account that stop me out at a 200 loss or a 400 gain every time

So what now...you waiting on a price, a signal?

 

[guppie]

So what now...you waiting on a price, a signal?

Since my (dust) price target didn't trigger I am waiting on a tvix price count to hit. I only trade once a day with 1/4 to 1/2 of my cash account so I do not get caught in a trade that goes bad due to the free ride rules. As I said before, I am a bargain basement shopper and try my best never to chase a trade. I have lost big in the past doing that, and I'm getting old and conservative with my money. :scratchchin:

 

[Steiner]

Q,
Your Friday morning move was a heck of a call. If it isn't too much trouble, I would certainly like the index system. It would give me some advance insight as to when your system is going to switch directions.

Thanks again for what you're doing.

 

[userque]

Q,
Your Friday morning move was a heck of a call. If it isn't too much trouble, I would certainly like the index system. It would give me some advance insight as to when your system is going to switch directions.

Thanks again for what you're doing.

Thanks. No problem.

I'll use it too for times when I'm away from my spreadsheets. I'm currently updating the algorithm, but the index should be ready to go before Monday's open.

Haven't decided yet whether I'll send it out individually, or post it here. I'll have to include "instructions," but it is simple, really.

I'm no longer concerned about having multiple times to consider when entering/exiting a trade. The previous three improvements I've made really boosted the model's accuracy (as I suspect this current update will also do); so I'll generally just go with the straight forecast, give or take a few minutes or so.

 

[guppie]

Since my (dust) price target didn't trigger I am waiting on a tvix price count to hit. I only trade once a day with 1/4 to 1/2 of my cash account so I do not get caught in a trade that goes bad due to the free ride rules. As I said before, I am a bargain basement shopper and try my best never to chase a trade. I have lost big in the past doing that, and I'm getting old and conservative with my money. :scratchchin:

My TVIX number (6.25) hit premarket this morning. Are you still holding DUST? With the dollar screaming higher (will likely break 100 minimum) it could have a significant pop this AM

 

[userque]

My TVIX number (6.25) hit premarket this morning. Are you still holding DUST? With the dollar screaming higher (will likely break 100 minimum) it could have a significant pop this AM

Yup. Still in. Yeah...I saw that about the dollar, we'll see if it holds.