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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
DCguy
Member
dollar index is still stable and bond yield is slowly dropping, but yield is still high. my guess is only way to sell $150 billion worth of US debt per month without raising yields is to let the market drop. market fear is good for the US. The govt let the market gain 30%+ after the crash to make ppl happy last year and now they let it drop maybe 10%+ to lower yields to sell more debt.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Interesting theory: Not sure how much control they have, other than the PPT manipulating the overnight futures to guide a reaction in the markets the following day. Because the futures are thinnly traded during the night, the PPT graveyard shift can really leverage. PPT pushing down the futures on purpuse?... now that would be something! I guess we can watch for /ES futures trends and compare with the past several months. I would not put it past the Fed to do anything to keep yields low, even create fear in the markets as ironic as it appears; a rising yield means that the housing starts and refinance options are killed, and the fragile recovery is DOA.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Only on th B&H side. I just forwarded your in-depth research to the FRTIB for verification - Can we have your address and telephone number? The men with the little white jackets will be there shortly. Just take your finger of the IFT button and back away from the computer.
But you are right, that is a scary thought.....
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Hey man,
Wanted to let you know how much I appreciated this response !!
It all the more confirmed the sense of doom I was feeling !
Anyway, have a good weekend !
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market erased 5% in the last 3 trading days just the same as it added 5% in 3 trading days off the March 09 lows. How ironic! Ok, so I have studied the charts and Elliot wave theory, and here is my take. The market has completed countertrend wave B of the Bear market ABC (all bear markets have a ABC structure). The final C wave should take most of 2010 to unfold and most likely will retest the SPX 666 lows or perhaps even take them out. Of course, there is a slim possibility that this won't happen at all, but that would be to deny the bear market. As a contrarian, even as the countertrend wave B was blasting up, pundits were saying the bear market is over. How absurd!
Now more about the C wave. It heads down and based on past bear markets will probably be laid out in 5 major waves, each with a 5 intermediate wave structure. Each wave goes like this: Wave 1 down, wave 2 up wave 3 down, wave 4 up and wave 5 down. A few more tips; waves have symmetry so if wave one extends, waves 3 and 5 will be about equal, or if wave 3 extends waves 1 and 5 will be about equal, See the pattern? Ok so lets look at the SPX hour chart to see what is going on.
View attachment 8062
We are in major wave 1 of 5. There are 5 intermediate waves within each major wave. Each intermediate wave has five minute waves. We see minute wave one went from 1150 -1129 (1), 1129 -1142 (2), 1142-underway and speculation now using support and resistance and indicators and EWT will probably bottom at 1085 (3), 1085 -1113 to backtest the 50 ema from the underside (4) and 1113-1077 (5) As this intermediate wave is building we see that wave 3 is extending; 1142-1085 is 57 points and that equals wave one and wave 5 combined (1150-1129 = 21, and 1113-1077 = 36, 21 points + 36 points = 57 points. (That is how I do the extension, which may or may not play out exactly but should be somewhat similar, based on the rules of waves.) I am thinking wave one will end right on the bottom channel (green line) one the SPX daily chart below:
View attachment 8063
Now for the year and TSP IFT considerations:
1) For each intermediate downwave, the minute waves 2 and 4 are upwaves, but they are very weak and short. Look at wave 2 of the current structure, it was only 13 points and a 1.1% gain. With our IFT delay requirement, and depending where the wave tops intra-day, you have a high chance of getting burned. Lot of risk for small reward.
2) Intermediate waves 2 and 4 of each major wave might be 5-10% rallies. We want to identify where they start and buy and hold through them.
2) Major waves 2 and 4 are upwaves. These are the big rallies to catch, as each one could be a 10% or greater gain. These are the bread and butter rallies of the year -buy and hold while they are underway. You don't want to be out of IFT bullets when these waves take off. It will be very important to identify the bottom of wave one, where this snapback rally will occur.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
Correction: Intermediate waves might only have a 2-3% rally, not 5-10%.
It is possible to catch these but, will burn up the monthly IFT. This first imtermediate wave rally should start near the lower channel boundary near SPX 1077 (This is what coolhand has been trying to catch for the last few days). Also, the wave structure is 5-3-5 so countrend waves unfold in threes.
There is a slight chance we don't have a bear market continuing. We will not know for sure until the trading channel near 1077 is taken out.
For a bear market continuing, I am thinking the first 5 sets intermediate waves unfolding as 5-3-5 to make the first major wave down may end near SPX 961. For timing purposes, that should be in the early March area. Then we have major wave 2, the largest countertrend rally of the year perhaps.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Uptrend, a 5-3-5 would be a "zig-zag" type of correction, not the beginning of a new downtrend. What bears are looking for is a clear 5-3-5-3-5 down, with the middle 5 waves down (the wave 3) being clearly the largest. So far I'm seeing the Elliott Wave guys counting the fall as a series of 1-2-1-2-1-2's.....in my seven years of experience of following Elliott Waves, almost EVERY time I see that it ends up being wrong. So I'm still leaning toward this drop being a correction and we haven't yet seen the end of the bear market rally. Most technicians including McHugh count the entire rally from March as being a "triple zig zag" and over. My guess is that by August we'll see that at this point we've only completed a double zig zag, and now we're getting the second "X" wave down, with another ABC rally to come...and I think that the first "A" leg of this final rally ends in early May (sell in May and go away will work this year).
Just my 2 cents. There's never any sure thing in Elliott Wave's, but it's fun to try.
Tsunami
Well-known member
A couple more random thoughts on the subject of whether or not we're starting wave C (or 3) down into the abyss...
- Last summer there was a big deal over the head and shoulders pattern that was pointing to an imminent crash. It even got to the point where people were showing it on CNBC. Any time there's a consensus like that it seems the consensus is usually wrong. It turned out that the June/July fall was just an "X" wave, then the markets started the next ABC rally.
- A week ago I'd say I was 90% sure that the market was going to hit higher highs into this summer, now I'd say I'm more like 80% sure. The reason why is I spent much of this weekend reading Harry S. Dent's updated paperback version of his book on the coming great depression and how to profit from it. His stuff on the powerful effect of simple demographics on the markets is very convincing. He's in the deflation camp. I'm not convinced, but I've leaned back away from the high/hyper-inflation camp and am on the fence. I think we'll get the answer by Thanksgiving this year though. Dent is predicted in his book (released in December) that the markets would peak no later than February 2010. Hmmm. His timing has been too early before though, and I'm guessing/hoping that he's too early again. (side note; he makes a good argument that home prices are going to take another huge drop in the 2010-2012 or 2013 period, I think he's right...at least in the areas around the country and world that are still ridiculously overpriced. If you live in an area where you keep asking yourself "how in the world do people afford to buy homes around here", you can bet prices are going to fall again in the next few years. People buying $700,000 condos are really going to regret it in a few years. That woman who bought my Bay Area condo for $245K in 2004 has had it on the market for $105K for a couple months now and still no takers.)
- There's one very important technical statistic that I'm looking for before I'm convinced we've seen the top. That's the one where we need to see a significant rise in the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows. That will show that the market is being held up by only a few remaining stocks, the Apples and Googles. Take a look at Chris Puplava's recent commentary on financialsense.com where he does an excellent job of explaining this. Here it is: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2010/0120.html Bob McHugh calls it the "Hindenburg Omen" and you can look that up on Wikipedia for the specific criteria...here it is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_omen , and he admits now that it would be an anomaly that we didn't get a "Hindenberg Omen" at this top since they've appeared at all major tops in the past. I think this summer, by August, we'll start seeing 52-week lows in stocks rise to the point where they equal stocks hitting 52-week highs....then it's time to worry.
Having said all that, you'll see I'm currently completely out of stocks. There's definately high risk here, but I think this correction will be over by early to mid-February and I plan to jump back in during that period unless we start seeing a huge selloff that changes things.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
Wow! Your posts are thought provoking. I agree on the C wave, if it unfolds, that it is a 5-3-5-3-5; (that is what I was trying to say). Since waves are nested, we should be in the first 1 of 5 of the first 5 down. Within this wave the market is on the wave 4 bounce wave today. You can number them any way you want, but that is the essence. Now whether this is merely a wave x and then we continue up or fall down will become clear in coming days. We should just be aware that, if the market continues to erode, the best trades will be the 2 and 4 major waves.
hessian
Member
Hey Tsu, Uptrend,
I'm so glad to hear "in-the-know-folks" discussising EW, and all I can say is I'm in awe, and will not confuse the ongoing discussion.
I think EW discussions are back because there is suddenly the stimulus for such discussions! - For us "Less literate in EW," maybe consider...
1. Some rudimentary drawings with labels would help alot.
2. EW does provide differing opinions, even among experts, but I see this essential.
3. So far, your opinions seem compatible - that could mean knowledgeable folks are seeing the same thing (rare, but confirming).
4. Ever think of a "Technical Alnalysis" thread dedicated to EW Teaching (like the P&F chart thread?) I think others like myself definitely WANT MORE! - regardless of whhat thread!
MUCH THANKS!
Tsunami
Well-known member
Uptrend - We're on the exact same page. I figured that might have just been a typo. I also think today is a wave 4, looks like it's one of the triangle variety maybe. Not sure if the wave 5 down will end this fall or if another set of wave's 4 and 5 is needed to match up with the initial wave 1 and 2.
Hessian - I supposed I could post more on my EW guesses on my thread once in a while, but they'd be just that, guesses, and no better than ones you can get at sites like the one Poolman posted a few days ago. Here's the link to that one, I liked it well enough to add it to my long list of stuff to look at every day when I have time.... http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
I have Robert Prechter's book on Wave Principles, the bible of Elliott Waves. It's so boring though I've never read through it all. There's something like 24 different kinds of corrective wave patterns for example. I know the basics pretty well, but you never really know what's unfolding for sure until after the fact. The best use of it is to pick spots to buy and sell in the very short term.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Looking at the SPX near the close, I see the 50 ema coming in at 1111-1112. I am thinking the market tags this level in the morning for a backtest and then continues down to the trading channel boundary coming in at about 1075 for the #5 down on this first little wave. From there a 38.2% fibonacci retrace puts the market to the low 1100 area for an approximate 2.6% gain. This is assuming the lower highs are coming as I think they are at this point. The GDP report Friday could help get it there? However, higher lows projected at 1111, and then the 1100 area is the defination of a downtrend. Lets see if it plays out or keeps marching up after 1075 is tagged. The reason I picked 1075 as the end of the first downwave is because of wave symmetry principles and resistance. The final wave down tomorrow or Wednesday should not be longer than about 36 points. (See my previous posts on Sunday to explain how I determined this number)
grandma
Well-known member
-for example:http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=252794&postcount=1450
was difficult for me to read numbers, separate the kinks etc. Printing it off was a blob of ink! And it is not `enlargeable.'
Being an `EW <novice' meant there wasn't a way for me to correlate the waves, zig-zags, etc into anything other than `wow! look at all that lightning!' So Hessian's #1 and #4 sound very interesting to me.
Whether you two, Tsunami & Uptrend, are in full agreement or any agreement, a dedicated thread with your opinions & dis-opinons would keep it together where the rest of us could have space to question w/o being diverted by other subjects.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Check out Nenner's forecast made on 12/12/09. He called the top in 2007. I have included the link to his radio interview on hedge fund radio, and his research center. IMO this guy is on his game. Remember those folks that got fed up with stocks, and think they have a safe investment in bonds? More agony ahead.
"technical analyst to the hedge fund stars, Charles Nenner, believes we are close to a top in the S&P 500. From hear you sell into the rallies. The SPX is going to plunge 10-20%, Treasury bond interest rates are going to soar (TBT),(bad for the F fund) and gold (GLD) has peaked out. There are tradable shorts setting up in all three of these markets that will run for the first half of 2010.
These calls are the product of Nenner’s proprietary Cycle Analysis System, which he has spent three decades developing, and generates calls of tops and bottoms for every major market in the world. I have diligently analyzed Nenner’s approach for a couple of years now. It appears to consist of multiple overlays’ of traditional technical analysis, some mathematically derived time and momentum indicators, and a dash of Elliot Wave for good measure. The result is reliable enough to make a living, as long as you learn how to read him and don’t bet the ranch (or the windmill?) on any single trade.
Nenner sees a trading rally in the dollar setting up which could deliver a strong greenback until May, when we should then re-establish shorts, especially in his favorite, the Australian dollar (FXA). The scientist turned technical analyst argues that major bull markets in wheat, corn, and soybeans will begin this year, sectors for which I am also hugely bullish long term. (also fertilizer and farm machinery) He sees natural gas (UNG) retesting the old lows at $2.40. Farther out, Nenner sees a new major bear market beginning in 2013 that will take both stocks and bonds to new lows. (Oh No!)"
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/Charles_Nenner.html
http://www.charlesnenner.com/
Uptrend
Well-known member
- So Hessian's #1 and #4 sound very interesting to me.
Ok I will label charts. Another thread is another matter. It is a matter of time for me.
Elliot wave theory is tricky stuff with varying ways to label the waves from time to time. It seems to circulate where some indices look muffled at times while others have a clearer count. There is a whole host of Ellioticians out there with all kinds of counting and labeling methods. We technically have not had a confirmed reversal yet because the market is still within the first little wave down. The market needs to finish this wave (and I am still thinking 1075 although it could stop at higher support at 1085. Think of that as the first downdraft. Call it wave 1. It has a 5 subwaves as shown on the chart. Wave 2 will be up, and will have 3 little zigzag subwaves up. It will probably end somewhere in the yellow oval on the chart. This is based on fibonacci math and resistance levels. That will be the lower high, and would be up to a 4% trade. If you have any Jan IFT bullits, that might be a good quick little profit. This wave 2 may start tomorrow. A lower high still does not confirm a downtrend. The next step is to start wave 3 down, whcih has 5 steps, similar to wave one. When SPX 1085 and the channel boundary (can't see it on the hourly enclosed) is taken out at 1075 then the downtrend will be confirmed. That is because we will have a lower high and then a lower low, below key resistance.
Even when the downtrend is confirmed that will only be wave 3 of a larger and more major 1 wave. To get to the low, which may be months out there, the 5 major waves will follow the same pattern. That is 5-3-5-3-5. The second and fourth major wave will offer the most price gain to our TSP accounts, although you may be able to snag some smaller gains along the way. The speed and 5% dive of the first wave of major wave 1 leads me to believe that this may be the real deal. If so, this can be thought of as an anchor and a good place to start counting down to try and get the count right. Big emphasis on try, because failure is part of the game.
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