Steadygain
TSP Elite
Hey Buckey Buckster,
If the System is saying: HOLD -- C,S,G,F
:nuts:That's pretty weird man --- but it's cool cause I'm stayin' put
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Hey Buckey Buckster,
If the System is saying: HOLD -- C,S,G,F:nuts:
That's pretty weird man --- but it's cool cause I'm stayin' put
Uptrend
Well-known member
Steady Don't be confused the faster part of my system sold yesterday, but the 7CM is still in buy for C S. Remember my system is based on levels of risk. If you like to hang out there go with the 7CM subsystem, but if you are only moderate risk go with the QB subsystem. As I explained in earlier posts, I am following the QB for my personal style and levels of risk. A warning though; if the SPX 1133 can't hold by the end of the day, the 7CM subsystem will most likly sell to F G.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend
Well-known member
A lot of technical damage was done to the charts yesterday with the quick reversal to 1129. In this uptrend since march 09, quick reversals usually mean the 5th or last Elliot wave in a sequence has topped and a new downwave structure is underway. I expect the SPX 1133 pivot to give way today or tomorrow. It was busted intra-day yesterday reversing at 1129, so it will be easier to slice through on the second round. 1115 is the next lower support level with 1085 as the next downward step.
Can't win all trades. That is the way trading is, risk and reward, the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat. The QB subsystem has a sell (to G) for the F fund or bonds today. The 7CM subsystem has a sell (to G) for C S. The I fund has not been played this year so far in my system. I will update system performance this year tonight.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Another sharp downwave, about 6 on the richter scale. Gale force winds ahead.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Um...OUCH?!?! More like 8
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend,
Looking primarily at the current period we're going through and all the more tying that into how we got here ....
....my thinking lines up with your system...
... and I'm just a dumb ass that doesn't know anything .... but usually I have a good feel for where things are going...
...I'd rather cut my losses short ... than take a chance and wait on a bounce ....
So far your System has done well --- and the year is just starting.
hessian
Member
Hey Uptrend,
Been awhile I know, but what do think of Elliot Wave (posted by Poolman)?
Ijust know that you have been an EW affectionado in the past - think there's validity to these counts? :worried: I recall another also posting these, but can't recall whom at this time. Wonderful day to buy a dip - unless this is a for-real downwave. I ask because you were the former EW proponent!
VR!
Maybe today a jump into I-Fund, for the FV - unless this is the big-one??
Uptrend
Well-known member
I have simplified my trading system, because there was too much confusion between the two risk levels. The current system basically follows the former quick bite system. I renamed it Bushwhacker because it seeks to get the most out of a trend by attacking suddenly from a place of concealment. It's an ambush. The signals will be shown on my signature line. Following is the system performance so far this year/month. No signals have been given yet for I, because of the inpending US dollar rise negatively affecting the I fund, but they will be given in the future when good trades arise. When not in a trade the system is in G, but the G gain is not calculated. When a buy signal is given for multiple funds, the user must decide the percentage split. Differing percentage splits while in the buy mode may yield different results. I have included a comparison with the TSP funds on a buy and hold basis.
Disclaimer:
This is my system, and is for viewing and entertainment purposes only; not a recommendation to buy and sell. The user should seek professsional financial advice from a licensed financial planner.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
The charts are damaged. Spin-out on the ice. Trainwreck. Note how the market takes months to grind higher and days to fall. That is why shorting at the right time is so profitable.
There is probably a small bounce play here to backtest the SPX 1133, but IMO you needed to have made the IFT yesterday. That takes nerves of steel. I see lower during the next week, 1085 then 1040-1030. VIX turning higher, grab the dramamine.
See my previous post where I go over how I have changed my system, due to confusion; it is now just buy, sell, and hold. There is a spreadsheet enclosed for performance so far this year. When you are holding you are in G. When multiple funds are in buy, it is up to the user to decide the percentage split. My system is now named bushwhacker, as shown on the signature line. Happy trading.
coolhand
Well-known member
I really like the BW system. Very nice.
Looks like the market got spooked around 1000. Selling kicked in again.
I'm pretty sure there's a bounce play for next week. And it could be a rewarding one. But as you said, and I agree with this, it wouldn't last long and the timing is critical. If we trade much lower from here the sell signals will be ringing all over the place. And bearish levels will rise. I'm still very leery of Monday, but may push 30% cash into stocks today to establish a position.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Coolhand:
The downdraft this AM is more than I anticipated. The bounce could certainly be delayed till Monday, but the bargain hunters are coming. Markets don't go straight down, as they backtest key levels. SPX 1107 pivot needs to hold by the end of the day, for the little bounce. Finding a direction by IFT time is another matter.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Concur,
+1 Uptrend!
If the administration says anymore on intervention today, it will be 2% downward.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Would like to Add my own Disclaimer:
To all Buy and Holders ~~ PLEASE stay in High Risk and Ignore the Bushwhacker System that says: Hold to G Fund !!!
This will undoubted be a very glorious occasion for those that Follow the Bushwhacker -- as it has suggested thus far.
coolhand
Well-known member
I agree. I needed to continue to see how the market was going to trade this morning before I made any final decisions, and I'm still watching. I had hoped for chop, but instead we're seeing some serious selling pressure. That changes the game. Looks like we are bouncing off that pivot for the moment, but where we end up at the end of the day is another matter. Market is high risk right now.
Frixxxx
Moderator
In, and let it bounce...I can't imagine too many people getting worried about the bank regulation issues. Now that it appears that Congress is split, & it might be a "lame duck" for a few months until November.
This week should have been a -1% on unemployment only. All other implications and chart reads were sideways.
Great weekend ahead!
coolhand
Well-known member
I think folks are focused on the Bank issue, but the China issue is big in its own right and could also affect the markets.Similar threads
