Uptrend's Account Talk

[hessian]

Can I have this this afternoon? I'll be done for the year - hahaha:laugh:

Good one Frixxx! :nuts: I'd just like to know, what is driving this? Seems like dumb money, (per Tom's commentary), so in essence its dumb money leading this? How can this be??
VR

 

[Frixxxx]

Good one Frixxx! :nuts: I'd just like to know, what is driving this? Seems like dumb money, (per Tom's commentary), so in essence its dumb money leading this? How can this be??
VR

Well, if I had my guesses, it would be a new year and people actually hearing that saving money is a good thing. I would venture to guess a lot of what we see this January is a lot of people upping their deposits into their retirement plans.

Plus, because of tax implications, many people are trying to offset their tax liablity for the quarter.

I see a ton of new money coming in......not necessarily dumb, but just ill-timed.

 

[Christopher]

It's all smoke and mirrors for this market, because the economy's definitely on drugs. Hyperbole implied.

 

[Uptrend]

Looking like SPX 1160's is the sell area for my faster system or perhaps both, but don't know for sure until we get there. 1230 still a possibility, but I think we have a valley in between. Don't like the look of the Russell 2000 chart; weakness and toppy and near to slamming into a upper channel return line. Studying INTC and JPM charts like Clouseau; thinking they may give the market a boast tomorrow, like a big gap up? JPM is the weaker chart. I see signs of the US dollar reversing up within a few trading days; probably early next week. Bond prices look like they want to sell off at a faster rate, but have not done so yet. VIX chart is under study; a gap was filled this AM. Perhaps a double bottom at/near 16.86 and it rockets, while the markets tanks a bit? Something is up, way to bullish sentiment. That is why I think the trade may be over tomorrow or soon. Perhaps time to lighten up.

Too bad my system muffed up the entry point. Still working with it for better results. When the market action action is sideways and more trendless, the system has more trouble identifying entry points.

 

[nasa1974]

Uptrend,

Some nice looking information. Went back and looked at the day after a holiday for 2009. Not good odds. More negative days than good after a holiday and large numbers to boot. Last year the day after the MLK holiday the C lost $0.52, the S lost $0.76 and the I lost $0.86 per share. A lot of members seem nervous about the market and hedging towards a drop off sooner than later. Fortunately I still have both my IFT's so I think I am going to jump to G tomorrow.

 

[fedgolfer]

Studying INTC and JPM charts like Clouseau; thinking they may give the market a boast tomorrow, like a big gap up? JPM is the weaker chart.

Also, looking at the earnings calendar next week, Wednesday is another day of reckoning for earnings, especially financials (C on Tues, Wed has BAC, WFC, USB):

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3273

.... if, BIG IF, we get a pop in the next couple of days topping out the SPX on the bollinger, regardless of earnings, it may be a sell the news event. Just guessing, though.

 

[shitepoke]

Uptrend- which post number describes your system again ?? Brain fog this a.m. Do you bias or weight any of the variables in your system ?? thanx for your efforts (i think between you and coolhand we/mb have our own premium service)...

 

[kar_crazy]

good folks n great info , but please stay out of pay per view:blink:

 

[JTH]

1230 still a possibility, but I think we have a valley in between.

I'd like to see a dip first myself, perhaps giving me an opportunity to collect cheaper shares. SPX 1250 still hasn't been broken, show me the money!

 

[Uptrend]

JPM beats and several red candles appear. What the ....?? Well hang on as they say. Using Elliot wave theory as a guide, looking for a SPX 1168-1175 top in the near term. Perhaps selling in advance of a 3 day weekend? Failed EWT 5th wave and market is cracking? Boyz pushing the small fry around?

The market needs to hold the SPX 1133 pivot.

 

[grandma]

Uptrend- which post number describes your system again ?? Brain fog this a.m. Do you bias or weight any of the variables in your system ?? thanx for your efforts (i think between you and coolhand we/mb have our own premium service)...

check his signature:

It's the system...QB Hold C S F 7CM Hold C S F How it works: Post 1333 1313

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend,
I'm wondering why you're not including the I Fund.

Seems to me that over the long run -- and especially with the latest wave UP --- that it has a substantially better gain.

So what's up with that ??

 

[mdszj]

Uptrend nice call so far on the F fund. TLT and AGG both look like they are set to move up a bit. I can not figure out which one better represents the F.

 

[airlift]

JPM beats and several red candles appear. What the ....?? Well hang on as they say. Using Elliot wave theory as a guide, looking for a SPX 1168-1175 top in the near term. Perhaps selling in advance of a 3 day weekend? Failed EWT 5th wave and market is cracking? Boyz pushing the small fry around?

The market needs to hold the SPX 1133 pivot.

Uptrend,

After hitting the intraday low 1131.39, the SPX made a comeback. The SPX held the 1133 pivot and closed at 1136.03. I am holding tight through this volatility - 30S, 70I - because I have only one more IFT this month and if I go to G or F, I would lose the upside in these first months of 2010. There still is significant liquidity, low inflation CPI, and low interest rates yet.

I pay significant attention to the Seven Sentinels (as per Coolhand, the SS issued a sell last night}. I hate to depart from my discipline, but the trend seems to the upside, and the SPX 20 EMA and 20 SMA held very good support yesterday. According to Show-me, Oscar is bullish. In sum, I decided to take the riskier road. Please keep us posted on your views on the market direction. Thank you, and Good luck.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend,
I'm wondering why you're not including the I Fund.

Seems to me that over the long run -- and especially with the latest wave UP --- that it has a substantially better gain.

So what's up with that ??

The I fund has a US dollar relationship, and other flashy hingepoints. Still working on tools of the trade to support relevant conclusions and trade signals. One thing is for sure, when the dollar gains, pressure will be upon the I fund like today, as the dollar shot up this AM.

My faster QB system has posted a sell for today. This is essentially a failed trade, due to a wrong entry point. Still working on system signal trade criteria.

 

[Steadygain]

The I fund has a US dollar relationship, and other flashy hingepoints. Still working on tools of the trade to support relevant conclusions and trade signals. One thing is for sure, when the dollar gains, pressure will be upon the I fund like today, as the dollar shot up this AM.

My faster QB system has posted a sell for today. This is essentially a failed trade, due to a wrong entry point. Still working on system signal trade criteria.

Thanks Uptrend,
Well it's too late for me to BAIL -- but I wouldn't anyway.

I can't justify leaving on a day when you're barely making up for the previous loss. I hope I'm right but -- holding on for some bigger gains.

 

[shitepoke]

Looks like SPX 1150 will wait for political (Mass.) results ??

 

[Silverbird]

I don't think that it completely has to do with the MA results. I think there just was a pre-vacation sell-off on Friday. And I hope any upward movement isn't just as a result of the MA results because there will be the awakening after any jubilation and we will either go flat or down again, and if the market doesn't like the results there will be a short term sell off that will mean nothing. Market exuberance on single events can only be played by day traders.

 

[JTH]

It wasn't that long ago we spent weeks trading sideways...

 

[Uptrend]

The chart squiggle pattern yesterday may have been an ending diagonal; sort of a double top M pattern. There was a reasonable chance the upwave could have gone to the SPX 1168 pivot, but now a valley stands in the way. The SPX 1133 level needs to hold to continue any market advance. If this level fails the market falls to the 1115 area, and if that fails the floodgate opens.

The US dollar is up today putting pressure on the market. The inverse relationship is still holding, until proven different. The /DX daily futures are near a MACD bullish cross and the chart is at breakout level. The dollar powershares UUP has a big upward gap on the chart today and is near a bullish cross on the MACD. Looks lie the EFA fund is really taking a hit; down about 2-2.5% so far.

My system says that bonds are still in buy mode at this time (F fund).