I read over his predictions...and they seem reasonable in light of what has been going on lately with the middle east. In addition, I've noticed Asian countries are getting more strictor on illegals. The economy is still in limbo....with no clear policy or vision by the Whitehouse to resolve anything. Still in trouble. My thoughts anyway!
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Tsunami,
Thanks for your interesting comments, which supplement Uptrend's possible scenario or prognosis.
I have an open question for you, regarding the deflationary forces that you perceive and that you mention above. I really don't understand what impact deflation would have on the price of oil, gasoline, alternative fuels, and other commodities; and on our daily lives and standard of living. Therefore, I would like to understand the potential deflationary scenario better. It is important to get a grip on this aspect, and the deflationary possibilities that you alluded to. Thus, I highlited your comment.
With Uptrend's permission, I want to invite anyone on this board that might be willing to contribute their opinion as to the potential deflationary forces, to please express their ideas on this point. Thank you!
Uptrend
Well-known member
Stagflation or deflation could be caused by excess labor market and business excesss capacity; ie no incentive to raise wages because person could be replaced, and no demand for goods to drive up prices. However, it seems to me that raw materials are another matter. If too much paper money is floating around for a given supply of raw material, then the price would increase; and therefore the building blocks of value added goods could undergo inflation. This could also be used as a hedge to further drive inflation. But mortgage rates may rise as the Fed exits the 0% rate policy. As the rate rises, homes value should go down; otherwise they are not affordable by many for the wage rate. This is deflation. This will also further constrain new business development.
Read more here:
http://wallstreetpit.com/13054-the-fed-slipped-up-big-time-deflation-coming
So in summary a balancing act is in order. My 2 cents. Feel free to weigh in.
Today looks like the gap masters and pushers and shovers are at it again. No buy signals on my system at this time.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Well it's a perfect way to start the year !!
1st Q 10 - 15 % Correction
2nd Q back to the starting point
so I'm guessing the first half will be flat - unremarkable
3rd and 4th will be when the real fireworks go off
Uptrend
Well-known member
Looks like BigBully on the tracker had a return of 19.67% today in the F fund! Wow! I am sure the tech crew is reporting to work right now and should get the situation under control.
My system has flashed a buy for the F fund at cob today. There is no confirmed buy for C, S or I at this time. Just so you are aware, there is key resistance ahead on the Dow, QQQQ's, and SPX, and these return lines could make the upmove today fail. Todays move looked big, but was just making up for the last weeks last red hour for half the distance. In addition volume is still quite light, so may not be the real deal.
Uptrend
Well-known member
'On Dec. 24, the Treasury Department said it would offer Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unlimited capital for three years, up from as much as $200 billion each, to reassure investors in their debt and the mortgage bonds they guarantee. The U.S. also raised the caps on their portfolios to $810 billion each by the end of this year, from about $690 billion.
The change in rules for their balance sheet lessened the risk that the companies will need to sell securities this year to make room for hundreds of billions of dollars of delinquent and modified mortgages they will likely buy out of their bonds, according to Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank AG analysts."
Why Dec 24? So no one would notice? Can I have unlimited capital for 3 years? In effect gov is trying to keep bonds from selling to keep yields and mortgage rates down to aid housing market. One step ahead?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMMg_MERLKFo&pos=5
Great information to be aware of. Thanks Uptrend
Uptrend
Well-known member
Looking at the dashboard. Few LED's flashing & market is boring.
Synopsis:
Bonds ok, with more upside potential. Several stars have alligned.
Equities are overbought, with greater and greater correction potential. Trend is flat. Resistance or return line directly overhead. Negative divergency since August on SPX. Nasdaq, Russell and QQQQ's weaker, and looks like money is leaving tech sector. Riding upper BB. Very bullish sentiment (just look at the tracker board) which is good as a contrarian indicator. Bad setup to be long. (Am I the only one smelling a velley dead ahead? How deep? Sorry, my depth perception is not that great).
I am dead last on the tracker at # 307. Ain't that a hoot! Lets compare on 12/31/2010. Remember, robot system says; emotions are out, IFT's are in.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Birch: Didn't doc tell you to lay off that birch sap wine?
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is today's action brought to you by /ES futures hourly. They track the SPX cash market lately by about 5 points lower at any given time. Notice the little grey oval target near 1120, think that is were the market is going short-term. Not much of a drop.
View attachment 7895
Uptrend
Well-known member
Sorry for the 2x post. I built a new computer, and it is freezing on some of the uploads for some undetermined reason.
Here is today's action brought to you by /ES futures hourly. They track the SPX cash market lately by about 5 points lower at any given time. Notice the little grey oval target near 1120, think that is were the market is going short-term. Not much of a drop.Last edited:
Nordic
Member
Uptrend, do you see the S&P climbing for a period of time (1-2 months??) once it hits the 1120 area? Target high?
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend,
I feel like a professional runner with years of training waiting for the signal. My muscles are like super ready -- feet solidly on the ground and I'm ready to fly .....
.... will wait for the Green Light
felixthecat
Active member
Market looks tired...however...I'm more tired of it going up without as much as a meaningful corrrection. Therefore...I'm all in real TSP. Not. Just kidding. Someone wake me up when someone volume moves in.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Things must really be bad if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fudge number is -85k jobs shed for December 2009. Those expecting a gap and go must be disappointed.
Market might be slowly rolling over. Clearing the SPX 1133 pivot (a range going to the 1140 area) is not confirmed. A bearish harami candlestick might be forming on SPX.
The bonds are gaining, while the dollar is losing. Now I can move up from last place on the tracker. The last shall be first. There is only a 3% spread, and we know that can be wiped out in one day. Coming to get ya BigJohn.
My system says F.
Silverbird
Well-known member
*Sigh*, it's not a fudge, it's people reporting to the Labor department late, or with corrections. The preliminary numbers are always rather questionable - even worse with the current thin multitasking staff at most companies (the only reason they report in the first place is they have to, it's definately not priority one, and accuracy for the preliminary reports bow to getting something out before you get in trouble for being late). It would be pretty crappy fudge - I don't see any chocolate in this report.Similar threads
