Uptrend's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Thank You !!! My brother and friend

May they plummet to the depths of hell !!

Not that far...

Uptrend, today Consumer confidence is up, and CPI is up. I'm showing that housing is up and a few other niceties.

I think it's a sideways move today, but I may be out tomorrow (Friday sale) if I get any real skittish news in the next 24 hours.

 

[Uptrend]

FRixxxx: I sure can't tell where the market is going in a short (days) timeframe, as it is near a apex of the bear market B wave countertrend rally IMO. However, the SPX could still go up to 1125 or over shoot a little, or up into the 1200's on the high side. As I showed in my post with chart on Sunday evening, the market is losing momentum. The conclusion is that distribution is taking place by the big institutions. They might choose to reverse their positons, but right now they are being cautious, as I am.

Looking ahead for the rest of the week, I am thinking choppy sideways trading, but staying below SPX 1112. The market will probably float up a little on light volume, as traders leave for the holiday. The results of black Friday should be a market mover for Monday, Nov 30, as the results of retail selling should be coming in by then. I seldom hold a position through earnings on a stock position (been burned a few times), and this is about the same situation. It's gambling, and not in my risk/reward formula.

 

[Frixxxx]

FRixxxx: I sure can't tell where the market is going in a short (days) timeframe....

Roger - trying to shore up the position we are coming to a trend line again. I'll take my loss today with a hope that I get a little more positive news tomorrow.

Your analysis is really informative and your charts are awesome....(I use them more than you know!)

 

[Uptrend]

The market is floating up slightly under light volume today, and is locked in a consolidation pattern between SPX 1091 and 1110-1113 where there is a ton of resistance. Momentum is still down. Frankly this market could break either way. The market has been in this range for two weeks now, so the break will probably happen early next week. Am thinking that the black Friday retail sales will be the driver. The day could beat expectations, as bargian hunters are putting most of their limited resources into the sale day. However, that means the rest of December might be a washout. In that case, we could get a spike in the market, and then rise perhaps up to the upper trendline coming in at between SPX 1125 and 1133, and reverse. If consumers are holding on to their money, black Friday could tell a different story.

The charts are not telling us to buy. Just the opposite. So, lets see what happens.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

 

[Uptrend]

Well its Dubai, its the US dollar crashing then rising, its the yen rising. Regardless of the reasons the US equities market momentum has been declining for some time. That is one reason my system went to the safety of G on Nov 23. The /ES futures(tracking SPX) are down big to 1074 as I write this tonight, which is the September top. Will be looking for a lower high and lower low in the coming days to confirm a downtrend or not. The SPX market should find short term support at the 50 ema coming in at 1070. Then perhaps a backtest of the 20 ema coming in at 1091. Looks like a 3-4% loss on tap for tomorrow. Account zap.

The signs were there. Waiting at the station for the next train. No schedule has been posted yet. The waiting area should fill up.

 

[felixthecat]

3 to 4 percent sounds about right. Volume
on the lighter side could provide for a 4 to 5
percent decline since this Duboi news, combined
with a SnapBack on the US Dollar, and
increased bankrupty filings zaps any remaining
rally. Sharp downward spiral likely.

 

[Uptrend]

Welcome back old friend Volatility In the last few days we have been seeing strange things going on in bonds and now equities. Black Friday might tip Volatility with the initial flat reading.

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN2826332520091128

 

[Uptrend]

Here is my weekend review. See hourly SPX cash chart:
View attachment 7401
The market has built a support base at 1088 for the last 13 trading days starting on November 10. Even with the Dubai scare on Friday, the SPX cash market managed to close at 1091 above the 20 ema. No real technical damage! Tonight the futures are up as I write this; currently at 1096. The US dollar /DX futures look like there is more frrom to fall to around 74 along the lower trend line. Bond prices on the 10 year treasury note futures,/ZN, look like they may go down soon, as the technicals are weakening. The ISEE sentiment index chart for equities is a bit bearish (contrarian indicator).

So let's do the math: consolidation +shake off a default scare+dollar with room to fall+bond price decline+traders a bit bearish = A Green December. I was reading somewhere we have had two red Decembers in a row, and the market has never had 3 in a row, even after the 1929 crash.

My system is still sitting in G, but may get a buy soon. Remember it works in the daily timeframe, and as soon as certian technicals line up, I will let you know. Happy Trading.

 

[amoeba]

Here is my weekend review. See hourly SPX cash chart:
View attachment 7401
The market has built a support base at 1088 for the last 13 trading days starting on November 10. Even with the Dubai scare on Friday, the SPX cash market managed to close at 1091 above the 20 ema. No real technical damage! Tonight the futures are up as I write this; currently at 1096. The US dollar /DX futures look like there is more frrom to fall to around 74 along the lower trend line. Bond prices on the 10 year treasury note futures,/ZN, look like they may go down soon, as the technicals are weakening. The ISEE sentiment index chart for equities is a bit bearish (contrarian indicator).

So let's do the math: consolidation +shake off a default scare+dollar with room to fall+bond price decline+traders a bit bearish = A Green December. I was reading somewhere we have had two red Decembers in a row, and the market has never had 3 in a row, even after the 1929 crash.

My system is still sitting in G, but may get a buy soon. Remember it works in the daily timeframe, and as soon as certian technicals line up, I will let you know. Happy Trading.

I'm bailing out of the rest of the equity funds right now. I think bond prices will increase, at least this week and will hold those. I may go back in next monday, depending on an oversold reaction to weak economic numbers.

 

[Uptrend]

System still on a hold in G today - no changes.

The major resistance line coming in at SPX 1107 needs to be resolved. Close decisvely above, then up potential, close below, then just another consolidation day to add to the 14 trading days wandering around in a narrow range between 1088 and 1113. Ye ole flattop. Futures showing indecision. This is the 6th day during this period that 1107 has been touched, as the major resistance line moves to the right and is slowly dropping, so it should be easier to blow by soon. I am expecting some fiddling with the employment numbers coming out on Friday, with perhaps a slight downtick, perhaps only 0.1%. Am thinking, even though small, may spark the market. Anyway, I am expecting some catalyst to drive the market further during December. We'll see, been wrong before.

 

[Steadygain]

Hey Terrontoesaurus Rex

That's $261 K --- I lost today (Birchtree quote)

Hmmm must be planetary allignment or some wierd stuff ...

.... cause there's no way The System is off


Oh yeah ---- Good Night All !!

 

[Uptrend]

My system flashed a buy at the close yesterday. Was waiting to see how the market opened....there are some things I sure don't like - the system is not intelligent - it only trades on certian market indicators.

On one hand the market appears to be rolling over, dollar is still declining, but when it turns up, will be death for the market (and it could turn anytime), asian markets other than Japan are doing fine but the I fund is really not invested much over there, ADP jobs report worse than expected (but they have estimated high before).

If the market can stay above 1113 today, there is a good shot at 1133 pivot. There is going to be touble getting above that level. So, IMO, if one goes into the market it is probably a small high risk trade.

Here is a bear report:
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp5001130/

Trade Carefully

 

[Uptrend]

Please Note
I am thinking my system has given a false buy today. See chart:

View attachment 7422

The market through a pin through the upper negative force line on the rectangluar trading channel on the hourly SPX chart, but is still below. This is not a breakout -yet. Also the MACD, RSI and ADX are turning down. The market has been trading in this box for 15 trading days now. Wow!

No Breakout!!

I am holding in G and will not buy today, but you should know by now that I am conservative

Trade Carefully

 

[felixthecat]

Looking at the seasonality on a year by year basis, and based where we are at glass ceiling resistance, I'm sure inclined to also stay on the sidelines until around the 12th of December...and then go in for heatlhy gains for the end of the month assuming no negative technicals have been broken. My impression would be, there has to be a steady or slight accumulated decline of 2 to 3 percent here over the next 10 trading sessions (probably due to some unsettling news and lack of participation of bank stocks which are waiting for the other shoe to drop on Dubia World). Job market also holding us back. Volume is also very suspect on buying here with S&P and Nasdaq. I'm not seeing buying strength near the glass celing. Feels like market is turning over on third or is it fourth attempt S&P 1113? Market gains of 67 percent off a major recession is usually the very top of a a market rally of its lows. I can think of no bigger gains in recent memory on such a short timescale. On the plus side...may be support for retail stocks to hold market up from bigger declines.

I'm only down .4 percent from my all time high...so I'm not willing to risk loosing anything unless that glass ceiling is broken with some vigor. Then I'll be a little late to the party but I don't mind getting some larger bread crumbs to finish out a great year.

 

[coolhand]

UT,

You're uncertainty reflects my own feelings. This "potential" rally does not look or feel like the others of previous months. We could be in for a blow off top, or it could simply be a case of conflicting signals in an uncertain environment and we chop around.

 

[Steadygain]

No Breakout!!

I am holding in G and will not buy today, but you should know by now that I am conservative

Trade Carefully

Man !! I'm glad you said that :worried:

When I saw the System (checked too late) I thought ..

.....(hummm maybe I shouldn't say).....

.... OK ... well I kind of thought gee whizzz


Take it from me Uptrend -- bucking the System is not a good move

 

[Uptrend]

A rising dollar is responsible for the marlket having trouble this AM. Has the dollar bottomed at 74.21 last Thanksgiving night during the Dubai scare? There is now an upward channel and so far today it's off to the races.

View attachment 7425

My system got a false buy yesterday, and is now back in G. I did post explaining why I thought it was a false signal, and recommending caution. Took some short positions today. Trade Carefully.

 

[felixthecat]

Retail sales was a big negative surprise...hard to ignore the fact consumer spending is wanning. ISM manufacturing contracted...another negative surprise. Now the Dollar is in an up channel. Stocks to remain under some pressure today. Add to it my previous concerns about light volume on the S&P as we approach the S&P 1113 resistance point. Market momentum counteracting the negative side.

Tough read...which way will the market go. I went ahead and stayed with market momentum and made a short term trade back into equities. I believe this negative news will be seen as temporary buying opportunity. A step trend up will continue and sidelines equity money will continue to flow. I don't see the panic necessary to bail out of stocks and have taxes due on large gains. It would be better to sell in early January and have that tax money due in 2010.

In the end, I hate fighting market momentum and the Santa Claus effect. :worried:

 

[Uptrend]

I do agree with you and Tom on the tax theory. My system wants to buy, but I put a override on it. Still lots of negative divergences. The longer we go sideways the larger the dam break will be, up or down. The dollar has been selling off Sunday night. Could Monday be the breakout day?

 

[felixthecat]

I would see a breakout Monday if the market held today under resistance levels. However...I did the trade to take effect Friday because I don't want to be late to the train station when it takes off. I don't believe it is now a question of markets breaking out to new highs...just make sure your aboard when it breaks upward out of containment. I sense we will move above the resistance levels today or Friday. Then off to the races.