Uptrend's Account Talk

[hessian]

There is a Fall Coming
There is a fall coming, it's around the bend
It's pure nonsense to think the market is on the mend
There is a fall coming, I dont't know when
Just IFT to S, so you will have nothing to defend

Wall street has gone totally insane
Traders making huge profits, while the street is in pain
What are we going to do to fight back?
Put out money in C and S, so the wolves can attack?

Driving the market up is part of the plan
Get on board, get your head out of the sand!
Ride this wave, it's a beautiful day
Put your money in C and S, it's time to play

There is a fall coming, it's not far away
The F fund tells us that,every day
So be a good steward or be a fool
Play in the giant casino, you have got to be cool.

Be number 1 on the tracker board
Go away for months and be adored
Buy and hold that is what they say
There is a fall coming, it's not far away

Hey Uptrend,
Do you do that as a Rap?
Cool -Though I think I'd like to see your analyses more (but still cool).
VR

 

[Steadygain]

There is a Fall Coming

There is a fall coming, it's around the bend
It's pure nonsense to think the market is on the mend
There is a fall coming, I dont't know when
Just IFT to S, so you will have nothing to defend

Wall street has gone totally insane
Traders making huge profits, while the street is in pain
What are we going to do to fight back?
Put out money in C and S, so the wolves can attack?

Driving the market up is part of the plan
Get on board, get your head out of the sand!
Ride this wave, it's a beautiful day
Put your money in C and S, it's time to play

There is a fall coming, it's not far away
The F fund tells us that,every day
So be a good steward or be a fool
Play in the giant casino, you have got to be cool.

Be number 1 on the tracker board
Go away for months and be adored
Buy and hold that is what they say
There is a fall coming, it's not far away

Thanks Uptrend ---- I had the melody and beat and everything ....

.... even heard Jonny Cash singin' it.

Reminds me of the new Pledge I thought of over the weekend as others brought me up to where things are and what's happening.....


I Pledge Alligence to the BANKS of the United States of America...

and to the Capitalist Greed by which they stand

One Nation held hostage -- with $50 Billion in Exec Rewards due to suffering for all.

Would also redo the Flag -- put Goldman Sachs at the Top and the others below in a pyramid shape -- but Congress and BHO don't think it's appropriate.

 

[Uptrend]

Hedge Fun

Loaded up on TZA
Piled on the S fund too
Once the market decides a course
There is going to be a coup

SPXU is my friend
When the C fund is riding high
I'll double up the shares again
Try and make the weak hands cry

Market moving down twice as fast
As the long trek up
Dollar meter is spinning round
As goodness fills my cup

What is that you say, I have a hedge
No matter which way we go
I've drawn the saber with GS
Still trying to inflict a blow

Come on, we need more investor warriors
Inclined to make a bet
Lets knock down the giants
Were not finished with them yet

Their programs try and steal our shares
And flash trade they might
Forget the SEC, they are no help
They can't see day from night

So lets band together and short their stock
And force their CAP down
No short squeeze will come upon them
Lets drive them in the ground

They were greedy
They were bold
The government did nothing
The executives stole

Now it is our turn
To make their lavish incomes rubble
Time to finish em off
Burst their fairyland bubble

So load up a few stocks
On the short side with me
When they close their doors
We can dance cheerfully

Sure we will maintain a hedge
But our bear raid spells trouble
Join in the game with me
Lets see who we can befuddle

 

[Uptrend]

Here is what I see going on today. US dollar is up, putting pressure on the market. Bonds are down a little, but still in an uptrend, despite the equities rally (I don't think this is healthy for the market going forward btw). XLF filled yesterdays gap on the hourly chart. SPX hourly chart shows the market below the 10 ema, but the trio (10,20 and 50 ema) still have a bullish reallignment.

There is really a battle going on for the 1107 pivot. This is a major resistance/support area. I expect the market to be relatively flat through Friday (options X) and then perhaps a short term correction, before advancing. I say this because based on the pattern of wavelengths and symmetry under EWT the 5th wave up should have ended and we are under an ABC small countertrend. I am looking at 1072 gap on SPX hourly as a possible support base before possibly resuming the uptrend. This post options X weakness pattern has played out for the past several months.

 

[alevin]

Thanks Uptrend ---- I had the melody and beat and everything ....

.... even heard Jonny Cash singin' it.

Reminds me of the new Pledge I thought of over the weekend as others brought me up to where things are and what's happening.....


I Pledge Alligence to the BANKS of the United States of America...

and to the Capitalist Greed by which they stand

One Nation held hostage -- with $50 Billion in Exec Rewards due to suffering for all.

Would also redo the Flag -- put Goldman Sachs at the Top and the others below in a pyramid shape -- but Congress and BHO don't think it's appropriate.

Wow, Uptrends thread would be one of my new favorites! that is, if it already wasn't, which it is. Awesome rewrites, both of you! Too much truth, but songs and rewrites of material everyone knows by heart sure get peoples attention and stick in their heads-need to get these on the radio and TV ads!

 

[Uptrend]

Nothing has changed for my system today - still in hold mode.

I expect a sideways trading through Friday, with some weakness possible. I expect the weakness to pick up next week. Bonds have been screaming this week. Fear? Looking at the SPX chart the small gap at 1072 looks to be a possible target, with 1065 and 1045 support levels below. I am thinking if the advance goes further, then a base would form in the 1065-1070 area with a launch to a minimum of 1150 in coming days. Actually there in not much resistance on the charts until 1210.

One could argue a base could form in the 1100 area, but I don't think so, because it gives no room for a little ABC countertrend, assuming 1114 is the top for now. This scenario would mean that EWT wave 5 is not completed yet, so the market would need to move to 1125-35 real soon. Remember the market obeys price, pattern and time, much like a river obeys dimension, pattern and profile. The number of up days vs down days indicates the probability for a little weakness soon, instead of strength. This also lines up with post options week.

I am more convinced based on xyz (to be discussed in future posts) that no big correction is coming anytime soon, and is perhpas 3-4 months out.

Hope you enjoyed the poems - they were fun to write, even if they don't have bearing on the market right now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Nothing has changed for my system today - still in hold mode.

I expect a sideways trading through Friday, with some weakness possible. I expect the weakness to pick up next week. Bonds have been screaming this week. Fear? Looking at the SPX chart the small gap at 1072 looks to be a possible target, with 1065 and 1045 support levels below. I am thinking if the advance goes further, then a base would form in the 1065-1070 area with a launch to a minimum of 1150 in coming days. Actually there in not much resistance on the charts until 1210.

Since bonds were screaming along with stocks and the fact that primary dealers account for 50-60% of auctions, I doubt that it was related to fear. Perhaps we are about to find out?

 

[Uptrend]

Bonds are dwon a fair bit this morning, but still within an uptrending channel. An further reasoning 350?

The housing starts reports today were weak and much lower than expected. And the labor market remains weak. Something just hit me this AM on why the administration may have been slow to make loans to small business, even though small business drives the economy. Scenario goes like this -wages are held down in a slow labor market, because of the surplus of labor. This makes it more difficult for small business to justify raising the price of their products. Limited price rises puts a cap on inflation. With no inflation the FED can keep the bank lending rate near zero. This is supposed help reignite the economy. However, it appears to me, under this strategy -if it was an intentional strategy, that the banks are eating cake, while the street is eating crow. I was wondering for a long time why the Small Business Administration did not have aggressive lending programs under the TARP. It is only recently that Obama has pushed the issue, and perhaps it is in response to a public outcry?

 

[Silverbird]

SBA did receive a bit of TARP, got more later...but it seems the word does not get out. They have more or less turned from the lender of last resort into actually...a lender. Personally I think their PR has always been incredibly lacking - although I've noticed news reporters don't seem to care about loans to small businesses and more interested in big banks. Actually rumor says down here (may be SBA tooting their horn) is that SBA asked for more money because more people than expected were actually asking the SBA for loans (since the banks weren't lending).

 

[350zCommTech]

Bonds are dwon a fair bit this morning, but still within an uptrending channel. An further reasoning 350?

The positive correlation between stocks and bonds on Monday was very suspicious to me. I noticed it yesterday morning and it's there again today. Both stocks and bonds have been benefiting from the weak dollar thanks to the Feds and the primary dealers, one of them is my avatar.

The dollar is rising today, which is why it looks like money is coming out of both stocks and bonds today. They're going to have to cause a real panic if they want yields to go down. Perhaps that is when this correlation will end.

 

[wwwtractor]

The world is buying dollars. Why you would buy something with a decreasing value is beyond me.

How long can it last? The only thing I see that is not red today is gold and silver which are the only real money.

 

[Steadygain]

Hope you enjoyed the poems - they were fun to write.

Enjoyed them immensely

I found the Hedge Fun song was easier to play in Em on acoustic

but sounded better in A on Electric

Hedge Fun

Loaded up on TZA
Piled on the S fund too
Once the market decides a course
There is going to be a coup

SPXU is my friend
When the C fund is riding high
I'll double up the shares again
Try and make the weak hands cry

Market moving down twice as fast
As the long trek up
Dollar meter is spinning round
As goodness fills my cup

What is that you say, I have a hedge
No matter which way we go
I've drawn the saber with GS
Still trying to inflict a blow

Come on, we need more investor warriors
Inclined to make a bet
Lets knock down the giants
Were not finished with them yet

Their programs try and steal our shares
And flash trade they might
Forget the SEC, they are no help
They can't see day from night

So lets band together and short their stock
And force their CAP down
No short squeeze will come upon them
Lets drive them in the ground

This part I found rather challanging -- and had to change the tempo to make it blend better.

I hope you meant for a musical interlude -- to all the more emphasize the remaining lyrics.

They were greedy
They were bold
The government did nothing
The executives stole

Now it is our turn
To make their lavish incomes rubble
Time to finish em off
Burst their fairyland bubble

So load up a few stocks
On the short side with me
When they close their doors
We can dance cheerfully

Sure we will maintain a hedge
But our bear raid spells trouble
Join in the game with me
Lets see who we can befuddle

If it hits the TOP 10 -- will give ya half the royalties

 

[350zCommTech]

The world is buying dollars. Why you would buy something with a decreasing value is beyond me.

How long can it last?

Could just be dip buyers thinking 75 is a good area for support?

View attachment 7275

 

[Steadygain]

The world is buying dollars. Why you would buy something with a decreasing value is beyond me.

How long can it last? The only thing I see that is not red today is gold, silver and oil.

Not sure if this is a rhetorical question and if it is then I'm an even bigger dumb a$$ than my answer will reveal :embarrest:

They are buying dollars because dollars are cheap and getting cheaper. Internally a cheaper dollar has advantages --- especially at a time when you want to feel rich and spend like crazy.

The rest of the world sees this as a huge window of opportunity. The Global Economy is still largely centered on the U.S.A. and the US Dollar (as orchastrated by China). So before there is a huge substantial shift and re-ordering of the Monetary System and all the more the role of the US Dollar -- it will undoubtedly get much stronger over time.

Gold, Silver, and Oil will dominate this 'season'.

It will last as long as the 'intended buyers' want it to last. When and if -- it becomes a widespread opportunity -- it will end.

PEACE MAN --- good questions and observations

 

[Birchtree]

I wonder how many eurozone folks will be visiting this Christmas - buying to their hearts content. Maybe they'll open a brokerage account and really spend some money. The last time the dollar was this weak several years ago the eurozone travel industry was on fire with great deals for them to visit all over the U.S. They were flying them by plane loads. Come one and come all - there will be plenty of figgy pudding.

 

[Uptrend]

The dollar is in a bullish falling wedge pattern that has been going on for months, and shows no signs of breaking out yet to the upside. MACD is still below 0 and RSI below 50 on the daily timeframe. A carry trade is going on with currency pairs; with the dollar being shorted while going long on a higher yielding currency and collecting the interest difference.

Can't figure market direction and here is why. The SPX ended today in either a wedge (probably bullish) or a descending triangle (bearish). No help. Elliot wave theroy suggests either the top has finished at 1114 or on to new highs at 1124. As you can count several ways, I find it to be no help. Options X psychology can twist the market up or down. No help. Candlesticks on the $SPX and $EMW charts show narrow range bodies that are dragonfly doji (yesterday) and doji today. This means indecision, so is no help.

Various indicators has not flashed any sell signals "for sure", so if you are in the market stay put. Not sure this a a very good entry point however. On the other hand, a case can be made for a cup and saucer on SPX chart forming with a backtest along handle today at 1102, breakout at 1114, and target to about 1175. However, the major trendline up from 1029 earlier this month may have been broken today, and that is bearish, if we see a lower low and a lower high soon. So, who the heck knows what will happen with all this indecision? Can I venture to say "nobody".

The direction of bonds are not clear either. Little fall today, but trend is still up. However, the concern is that the US gov will sell about 115 billion in 2, 5 and 7 year notes next week. That is right 115 billion. I can't even think that big. Huge supply, and I would like to think that means higher yields and lower prices to attract buyers. All selling must be done Monday -Wednesday because of Thanksgiving. IMO this will probably put downward pressure on price, and even though chart technicals are in buy mode, I may step aside (sell to G) because a price fall could happen with excessive supply. Here is a further read:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/174022-bond-expert-wednesday-outlook
Comments welcome

 

[Steadygain]

So, who the heck knows what will happen with all this indecision? Can I venture to say "nobody".

Uptrend,
The first thing I do is look at your System !!

From my prespective there is no way possible for any of 'us' who look at the VIX or whatever to accurately assess what's happening. I believe Birch's reply to Tractor (our #1 by far) -- was right on target and he stressed how the last time the US Dollar fell like this, it resulted in a huge enthusiasm from 'foreigners'.

In that sense I could care less where the Money comes from as long as it comes.

I 'bucked' your system only because I knew that holding on would most rapidly lead me back up. So at this point I would put more confidence in 'Your System' and simply acknowledge that it's designed to ignore both 'emotions' and huge MB sell offs.

Always enjoy your input -- you're good Uptrend -- very good!

 

[Birchtree]

We've had three different intraday tests of SPX 1102 with good support - financials will lead us to the promised land.

 

[les2l8]

I'm a back bencher, but I was wondering about up coming Black Friday (shoppers in stores and online) How will Wall Street react to a good or a bad day?

 

[grandma]

18/Nov/2009
Bloomberg Qatar, holder of the world’s third- largest natural gas reserves, sold $7 billion of bonds overseas in the biggest emerging-market government debt issue this year.

...
The direction of bonds are not clear either. Little fall today, but trend is still up. However, the concern is that the US gov will sell about 115 billion in 2, 5 and 7 year notes next week. That is right 115 billion. I can't even think that big. Huge supply, and I would like to think that means higher yields and lower prices to attract buyers. All selling must be done Monday -Wednesday because of Thanksgiving. IMO this will probably put downward pressure on price, and even though chart technicals are in buy mode, I may step aside (sell to G) because a price fall could happen with excessive supply. Here is a further read:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/174022-bond-expert-wednesday-outlook
Comments welcome

Is there a relationship between Tractor's post on Bloomberg's sale & that the Feds are thinking about doing it?