JTH
Well-known member
While I admit it's interesting to watch, the creator freely admits it has not been back tested. Therfore I put it in my "news" category.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
While I admit it's interesting to watch, the creator freely admits it has not been back tested. Therfore I put it in my "news" category.
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm still learning about this tool, so I don't know much about it. That's why I've said I would not use this by itself by any means. Currently I'm in a watch, see, and learn mode. I know next to nothing about fractals.
The chart does not change shape often so far, but he hasn't been posting it for more than the past 4 weeks or so. He has disclaimers about the use of this tool on the website where this projection is posted. You really have to know what you're looking at to get the best utility out of it.
As far as changes to the projection though, I suspect it's not much different than speeding up or slowing down chart parameters as the market changes. There's a method to the maddness that's not readily apparent to novices. Mark is no dummy, so I know there's got to be some utility here that I need to grasp. I'm working on it.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I will make this brief today:
SPX still pointing down. Descent is too steep, forming bullish falling wedges. Short term target is still the 1020-1025 area. I think the market will bounce first to set up a positive divergence. None formed on the chart yet for MACD. The bounce will be minor and is capped at 1050 (There is various reasons for this from EWT to 50 ema).
So, sit tight and enjoy the show from the sidelines. I am still thinking a head and shoulders pattern may play out, with the right shoulder forming with highs to around 1080, as soon as the market hits the trough low near the 1020-1025 region. A buy signal will probably show up near this anticipated low, on the upside.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The dollar made a strange big spike last night - poked a hole in the 50 ema on a weekly basis on /DX futures and topped at 81.34. USD is now against the 50 ema in the daily timeframe (76.86) and should backtest the broken trendline coming in at 75.22.
On elliot wave theory a 5 wave down pattern may have been completed and the market may be heading up for the next few days in a A B C counter rally. I am holding 1080 as the target. I would have like to seen 1020-1025 first on SPX, but we got 1029. This could mean a sloping neckline for a breakdown later.
Bonds are showing strength. Could be fear in the market.
My system has flashed a buy today for C, S and I. Happy trading!
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Oh shucks !!! I knew that would happen
I'd go about 20 feet under the water......
..... then you'd tell everyone to BUY
So far the System has been very impressive !!!
Uptrend
Well-known member
The US dollar is set to rally. This could put pressure on the market. That is why I don't think my current buy signal will last that long. The chart of the daily /DX dollar futures shows a bullish falling wedge with a breakout yesterday.
View attachment 7144
Further, check this out:
http://stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Uptrend
Well-known member
What's goin on??
Yesterday, I showed the US dollar is about to rally (last post). Who cares! Bad for the equity market. It will move the market lower in a hurry! Huge bullish falling wedge. When will it start climbing? As soon as the RSI gains strength over the value of 50, and the next minor low holds.
Where is the SPX market going now ? Up, but should end soon. A countertrend A B C pattern is looks to be underway. Wave A completed today at 1061 and wave B is underway. Most likely stop is a backtest of the trendline breakout near 1040. Then wave C will take the market up to a range between 1072 and 1093. The 1072 target is based on elliot wave theory and wavelength similarity, while 1093 is based on an inverse head and shoulders breakout from the sloping neckline shown on the chart below.
Traders et al: I expect trouble above this 1072-1093 zone, because I think the dollar will probably gain strength and down she goes based on the broader H&S topping pattern. Where to you ask? 1st target is 939.
See U at the Top, and then to the bearcave, or wahtever my system says. Enough rambling.
View attachment 7161
Uptrend
Well-known member
Have you ever heard of the "Law of Undulation"? I am convinced that C.S Lewis was brillant in his understandling of human nature and mans relationship with God in the Screwtape letters. And you know what? -markets appear to obey laws of undulation. Lets look at the VIX.
View attachment 7185
This is the VIX hourly chart. First we see a bullish falling wedge (white lines). Then we see a symmetrical triangle (green lines). This type of triangles is bullish. In the case of the VIX, up (bullish) would be down for the market. Up is down -what a concept. Anyway, bullish symmetrical triangles need to have 3 touchpoints along the bottom and two along the top, before a breakout would occur. Assuming I have drawn the triangle correctly (if you include the tails or not) we see two points on top and two points on the bottom. So, the market should keep moving up until the VIX goes a tad below 20, the market should reverse and the VIX go above 32 for a breakout. A sign we nearing the bear breakout?
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Wow !! Uptrend -- what a beautiful post.
Well let me tell ya something my good friend -- you don't say this kind of stuff and not get 'good ratings' from me!!
My little sister, Alevie, who's also from your neck of the woods said something about C.S. Lewis in my Groove and Trip Pad recently.
Well I'm in and all in -- for the same reason you are
Birch will beat us up if we bail
Uptrend
Well-known member
I am stepping aside into the "sell" and will move to the F mode. Many reasons. I am front running my system by 1-2 days. No system is perfect.
-Many foreign markets iare n confirmed downtrends
-Bounce today caused by falling dollar - it now has support
-Bonds not buying into rally; upward trend
-Backtesting broken trendline on SPX; it is stalling there
-Rally was ABC corrective in nature; downtrend should resume
-SPX fair value is around 880
I'm taking the 2%+ and running.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Dragonfly doji on SPX hourly. Perhaps the double top is in? Still qualifies as a H&S topping pattern, with a target around 940.
Low volume rise yesterday. Many not buying. Scary going forward.
Dollar on support
Bonds still strong despite the gov auctions coming up.
SPX need to break 1091 support for a downtrend to get going.
Get ready for a slide. Once the rip starts, it may go deep.
JTH
Well-known member
I think it's a good call for the moment. Small Caps still have catching up to do. Too much too fast with H&H & MA patterns everywhere...
Steadygain
TSP Elite
It's the system..Hold C,S, I, F
The System takes away the uncertainty -- so I'll hope for the best.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is some Great News today Let's Rally!!
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) sank 33 percent on Tuesday after the company warned it may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection if it cannot fix its liquidity problems.
"Ambac's available liquidity is currently insufficient to fund its needs beyond the near term and its failure to successfully execute on its current strategies could result in it running out of liquidity in the second quarter of 2011, or potentially sooner," the company said in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission late Monday."
"Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Adobe Systems Inc., the world’s biggest maker of graphic-design programs, plans to cut 680 jobs, or about 9 percent of its global workforce, as the company copes with a lingering sales slump."
Money is flowing -Right??
"Meanwhile, here's a look at mortgage mods by servicer. As you can see, Bank of America (BAC) is the stingiest major bank, offering mods to just 21% of eligible borrowers, compared to 43% at JPMorgan (JPM), 50% at Citi, and 41% at Wells Fargo."
To the moon baby!! What kind of insane madness is this?
(Conclusion -Too much exurberance and then the cliff dive)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ambac-shares-sink-as-warns-of-rb-3497173702.html?x=0&.v=1
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alGpxMX6bXKY
http://www.businessinsider.com/bank...en-it-comes-to-mortgage-modifications-2009-11Similar threads
